The War in the Ukraine

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
FAB-1500 lands on a Ukrainian vehicular hanger in the Sumy region. The hanger is likely used to support the offensive. Kondratovka, Sumy region.

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The 810rd Marine Brigade destroyed a ton of Ukrainian vehicles in the Kursk region and also captured a number. This brigade, set up in Sevastopol, was notable for it's part in containing the Ukrainian bridgehead in Krynki, and this background and expertise is probably why it was transferred to Kursk.

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From what we can see, Kozak-7, Roschel Senators, Cougar, and Humvee.

Another missile lands in Odessa.

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Destroyed BTR-4E and M113 somewhere in the front.

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Roschel Senator, Maxxpro and two pickups taken out by the Sparta Battalion in Donetsk.

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Kozak-7 tried to break through the Kotolilovka checkpoint in the Belgorod region by ramming through, smashed into a concrete block and gets FPV'ed.

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Russians bombing Ukrainian concentrations in the Kursk border area. Ukrainian attempt to take the settlement of Korenevo is reported thwarted.

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Russians raise flag on Zhelannoye, next to Torestk. Orlovka has also fallen to the Russians.

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Russians are back in Liptsy despite Ukrainian counterattacks. The highlands overlook Kharkhiv and provides great artillery position, which is why the Ukrainians have been desperately counter attacking there.

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Russians expand their position in Niu York. City looks nearly gone. The Ukrainian salient to the east has collapsed.

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Captured personnel of the AFU 80th and 82nd Brigades.

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Fitch cuts down Ukraine's rating to restricted default.

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Russians digging trenches all across the Kursk region.

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MSTA-B working in the Kursk region.

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British made robotic dogs used by the AFU in Donbass.

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Super Mangal turtle tank from the 150th MR Division. Kurakhovsky direction.

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Krasnopol work along the Seversk front.

 

MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
That vulnerability is at the root of Russia's entire security philosophy and foreign policy. Russia's European border is entirely open, flat terrain. It's trivially easy to invade Russia, you just walk across the border. What Russia has done to cope with this is to extend the enemy's lines deep into its territory and then cut them off and attrite them. That's a very costly and suboptimal solution, which is why Russia - be it the Tzarist Empire or the Soviet Union - surrounded itself with satellite states. Those satellites are meant to be the battlefield on which to attrite the invader rather than fighting on the Russian homeland.

Nice fan fiction. Did it ever occur to you that you should familiarise yourself with source material first? That is historical data?

Russia has never had a deliberate doctrine of using depth for defense. You will not find it in any historical document. The deliberate use of territory as a defensive factor is something that western commentators erroneously ascribe to Russian strategy. The most famous case being Kutuzov's campaign against Napoleon. That in turn arises spontaneously from the fact that when Russia enters the stage as an European power it already has an extensive territory so any war that is taking place in Russia will be affected by it. There is no choice of not using territory because the "tyranny of space" is a fundamental factor, one that determines everything else including your choice of strategy.

Russia doesn't use territory. Territory uses Russia.

If anything the most characteristic and consistent element of Russian strategy is preemptive warfare. Population size, especially in relation to its neighbours, is the main historical factor determining aggressiveness of states. States with lower populations have much lower aggression - with notable exceptions like Prussia.

Russia's aggressive blundering into Ukraine isn't an exception but the historical norm.

Russia historically has existed on the outskirts of Europe or "Christendom" as it was referred to at the time. It had a relatively small and dispersed population until the 18th century - at best twice that of Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, except spread over a much greater area.

This is why from 1400 to 1700 it's the PLC, not Russia, that is the dominant power in the region. At thattime Russia (Muscovy) hardly fights any wars in Europe which is why they can focus on their main threat - Central Asian states - and expands its territory there, as well as commits a genocide of native population which Russian propaganda always omits.

When PLC falters as consequence of Swedish invasion and civil war (aka "Deluge" - part of the religious wars and the most devastating event in Polish history, more so than WW2) Muscovy can use its demographic advantage against both PLC and Sweden during the Great Northern War of 1700-1721 which establishes the Russian Empire. The crucial battle of the war is fought in 1709 at Poltava, but not because Russia smartly uses territory but because Sweden managed to reach that far before it was broken by weather, disease and logistics. Russian Empire is built in a power vacuum of Europe's wars of religion and only later filled with population growth that far outstrips economic development making Russia the perpetual iron giant with clay feet.

The same thing happened in 1812. Napoleon lost at the very beginning of the campaign in Russia. French victory at battle of Smolensk came after the greatest loss of force had already occurred due to natural factors. Afterward the campaign was already lost in strategic terms - see the numbers here:

Minard.png


Although technically the entire campaign was ill conceived and driven by Bonaparte's increasingly megalomaniac drive. In any case Kutuzov didn't win anything. He just tagged along. Russian propaganda made him like he did - just like Ukrainian propaganda deals with the current war.

The same thing happened in WW2 when Hitler's forces have beaten a nominally much stronger Soviet army all the way to Moscow to ultimately falter due to natural constraints - distance, exhaustion, weather conditions, numbers and poor preparation. If Hitler wasn't an insane genocidal racist he'd complete what Wilhelm II started: Mitteleuropa.

Territory saves Russia, but never because Russia skillfully uses it to its advantage. To the contrary: Russians almost always fight badly until forced to run and then the territory saves them when the enemy decides to pursue.

WW1, which Russia has tactically and strategically lost against Germany, was a good demonstration of the preemptive doctrine which involved Russia's aggressive offensive into East Prussia, defeats at battles of Tannenberg and Masurian lakes which were then followed by... another offensive as soon as Russia managed to raise another army. And then again. And again. Until state collapse.

What happened after WW2 is different. First of all WW2 from Moscow's perspective was the expansion of Great Game i.e. the entry of British and American empires into continental Europe. Therefore the takeover of states east of Germany was seen as a balancing act to Anglo-American take over of states west of Germany.

Don't forget that we live in the future of the past. When the Cold War starts in late 1940s Bretton Woods is split 50/50 between USD and GBP and Britain cooperates with US on nuclear weapons. At the same time Germany is under occupation and France is digging itself out. What comes of it in 1971 or 1991 is not what both sides imagine in 1947.

Soviet Union needed to secure Germany which required having direct land access to German territory which required occupation of Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary. This is why Soviet forces withdrew from those countries when German reunification was agreed and why Soviet forces never stationed in Romania or Bulgaria. It wasn't about a buffer but about bridge to Germany - the world's second industrial power during WW2.

This needs to be put in proper context for decisions: during WW2 Germany was more industrialised than Soviet Union, and second only to USA.

Soviet Union, just like Russia before, never needed a "buffer" for defense because its territory amply provided it and it relied on its demographic potential which enabled aggressive strategies with high casualty ratio (and later on nuclear deterrence). In Europe it rarely exceeded the territory of Russian-speaking population and when it did so it was as part of balancing with other powers like during the Partitions of PLC.

Russian Empire expanded beyond that area only in 19th century due to demographic advantages - see dates, and correct for population density b/c you conquer people, not land.

988px-Territorial_Expansion_of_Russia.svg.png


Expansion into Central Asia and Caucasus was due to rivalry with Britain aka "Great Game".

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According to your logic this was necessary as a "protective buffer":

1005px-MANCHURIA-U.S.S.R_BOUNDARY_Ct002999.jpg


All that nonsense about how Russia needs to defend itself and needs friendly states as a buffer is just propaganda justification for imperialistic wars that Russia wages right now. It's a deliberate distortion of history to rationalise present action which can't be otherwise rationalised.

It should be obvious what Russia will do if its state survival is threatened.

If historical trends are any indication it will undergo a revolution, a regime collapse and a civil war with a failed external intervention which will result in re-emergence of new Russian regime - just as it happened in USSR, despite even large number of nukes.


The problem is already clear when Prigozhin did his coup thing. Russia had no way to respond to sudden aggression deep in its territory. The best they could come up with is destroy the road, fortify Moscow that time. Hopefully Russian take this lesson to heart this time.

That's because Prigozhin commanded a force that was part of the Russian military, greatly expanded for the purpose of facilitating the invasion of Ukraine without conscription. Prigozhin's coup occurs in June of 2023 which is no accident. It is when the initial period for establishing forces of reservists and conscripts from late-2022 mobilisation (legally: in newly annexed Russian territory) was coming to an end. Wagner was the interim measure before mobilisation plugged the gap between requirements and resources provided by the invasion plan. If Prigozhin wanted to make his move it was the last moment. He did, and he failed because he was never given sufficient forces to become a viable threat. Yes, the coup was a mess because Russian state is a mess.

Also he wasn't stopped by the military not so much because Russia couldn't do it, but because the military, and GRU especially, wanted to use Wagner (an FSB creation) against security clique ruling in Moscow. So they said "very busy, can't help" and stood by as FSB clique shot itself in the foot again (first in 2022) and Wagner was integrated into the army.
 
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gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russia has never had a deliberate doctrine of using depth for defense. You will not find it in any historical document.
Deep battle also has defensive concepts which include defense in depth. This was done in the Battle of Kursk for example. So you are wrong.

The same thing happened in 1812. Napoleon lost at the very beginning of the campaign in Russia. French victory at battle of Smolensk came after the greatest loss of force had already occurred due to natural factors.
Even during the Russian Empire they used scorched earth tactics to deny supplies to an invading enemy, and they used skirmishers and irregulars to sap invading opponents. Just like what happened with Napoleon. Claiming it was just the weather ("natural factors") that did in the Grande Armee is bullshit. How come the weather did not kill the Russian Army then? Same bullshit excuse the Germans used in WW2 for losing.

Soviet Union, just like Russia before, never needed a "buffer" for defense because its territory amply provided it and it relied on its demographic potential which enabled aggressive strategies with high casualty ratio (and later on nuclear deterrence).
Wrong again. You should try reading on why the Soviets insisted on the land swaps with Finland before the Winter War. It was about providing a buffer around Leningrad.

All that nonsense about how Russia needs to defend itself and needs friendly states as a buffer is just propaganda justification for imperialistic wars that Russia wages right now. It's a deliberate distortion of history to rationalise present action which can't be otherwise rationalised.
You are oversimplifying things. For you it is like the 2014 coup in Ukraine never happened.

If historical trends are any indication it will undergo a revolution, a regime collapse and a civil war with a failed external intervention which will result in re-emergence of new Russian regime - just as it happened in USSR, despite even large number of nukes.
Except the USSR collapse did not happen due to external military pressure. There was simply no one to fire nukes against. Maybe you should try reading Bismark.

Also he wasn't stopped by the military not so much because Russia couldn't do it, but because the military, and GRU especially, wanted to use Wagner (an FSB creation) against security clique ruling in Moscow. So they said "very busy, can't help" and stood by as FSB clique shot itself in the foot again (first in 2022) and Wagner was integrated into the army.
You cannot even get basic things like this properly. Wagner was founded by Dmitry Utkin. He was former GRU. Wagner was GRU. Simple as that. Claiming it was an FSB creation is just plain wrong. Also, FSB does not typically conduct foreign operations. For whatever reason people like you conflate the FSB with the old KGB. When today the Russian FSB operates more like the US FBI. It is the Russian SVR which does the foreign intelligence operations like the US CIA.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I can't. Lots of dead soldiers footage. It's on r/ukrainerussiareport subreddit.
A very neutral subreddit. They post both sides, but lately--a day or two--more UAF losses in Kursk.

This is the first time I have heard anyone outside of Reddit claim that cesspool of NAFO circle-jerking as ‘neutral’.

As if to prove the point, they just purged all the Ukraine loss content and made posting impossible by anyone other than an ‘approved user’ due to all the Ukraine losses that got posted being against the well established propaganda purposes of the sub.

Note the pictures posted with the announcement are of Ukrainian troops amping the Sub. Truly the model of neutrality.

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Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
I heard Ukraine trying their own VDV assault style in Kursk (Lgov ?), Does this ever materialize ?

Seems social media make the whole incursion bigger than what it actually was. Also Rybar. RuMod seems to just keep posting Ukrainian Losses, including apparently a Challenger 2 tank.

Does Ukraine really expect they can capture the whole Oblast ? Instead of saving and training forces to actually deal blow to Russian landbridge to Crimea.
 

B777LR

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is the first time I have heard anyone outside of Reddit claim that cesspool of NAFO circle-jerking as ‘neutral’.

As if to prove the point, they just purged all the Ukraine loss content and made posting impossible by anyone other than an ‘approved user’ due to all the Ukraine losses that got posted being against the well established propaganda purposes of the sub.

Note the pictures posted with the announcement are of Ukrainian troops amping the Sub. Truly the model of neutrality.

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Aren't you confusing the different sub-reddits? r/RussiaUkraineWar2022 is obviously pro-Ukrainian, r/UkraineRussiaReport has a very Russian bias.
 

Index

Junior Member
Registered Member
So what exactly is the whole purpose on invading Kursk?
Why was the ww2 ardennes push made? Taking Antwerp and destroying multiple enemy armies at once while not having any air power there wasn't exactly realistic either.

I think in the end it's just about commanders trying what has a little chance of doing something, grasping at straws rather than just wait out the inevitable.

Ukraine seemed to believe Russia would attack along Sumy. This is weird because the Kursk offensive didn't run into almost any Russian regulars. So maybe this was a strategic diversion by Russia. In return, Russia also didn't seem to expect Ukraine to retreat their best troops from the Donbass, so the sheer size of the Ukranian wave has given their planned firesack some indigestion.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Why was the ww2 ardennes push made? Taking Antwerp and destroying multiple enemy armies at once while not having any air power there wasn't exactly realistic either.

I think in the end it's just about commanders trying what has a little chance of doing something, grasping at straws rather than just wait out the inevitable.

Ukraine seemed to believe Russia would attack along Sumy. This is weird because the Kursk offensive didn't run into almost any Russian regulars. So maybe this was a strategic diversion by Russia. In return, Russia also didn't seem to expect Ukraine to retreat their best troops from the Donbass, so the sheer size of the Ukranian wave has given their planned firesack some indigestion.
The most surprising side of the Kursk offensive it's that they have enter there without much resistance using a big task force with all the bling bling, they had even close in fighter support !

Russian oversee of the situation was null, they didn't see it coming, didn't build forces and just got ***hurt badly. They are lucky that Ukrainian forces have been diminished heavily, if they would have done it last year it would have been way more troublesome, don't know how they would have been able to contain it.
 
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