The War in the Ukraine

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
He may have been sent to address the coordination issues in Kursk. It's a total mess there. The area that was the Western Military District was divided between the Leningrad Military District (LEMD) and the Moscow Military District (MOMD) in 2024, naming their respective commanders: Lapin (LEMD) and Kozovlev (MOMD). Kursk is in the AOR of the Moscow Military District. However, the area is under the responsibility of the Northern Group, commanded by Lapin who is the commander of the LEMD. Kozovlev and his forces are deployed elsewhere in Ukraine. In addition, Nikiforov who is the head of the ground forces must also be a name to be involved in this mess, as well as Gerasimov, a man with a very tarnished image within Russia.


The Kursk leadership is just that. It is oversaturated with units of different types and branches, subordinate to various groups and commands, making it impossible to effectively coordinate the means and resources to combat the ZSU.

The appointment of Alexey Dyumin as a senior official with all the powers to eliminate the operational crisis in the Kursk region is a sign that on their own and without Moscow's intervention, the security forces were unable to solve problems of such coordination. If we take into account the fact that such problems exist in the Russian MoD, one can only be surprised at the scale of the catastrophe in the context of interdepartmental cooperation. Dyumin's appointment means that Putin's team takes full control of the situation in order to stop fraud, and also to start solving the problem, and not try to freeze it. And what is happening is the best answer to what Alexey Dyumin's real role and tasks are in the new system of the Russian Federation after its inauguration in May. Apparently, he will be the one who will become the expert in solving operational problems, as well as in solving problems of coordination, combat and civil control.

Dyumin was previously intended for the post of Minister of Defense to take Shoigu's place. Well, in fact, they have much broader powers. Today everyone will be looking for opportunities to quickly meet with Alexei Dyumin and be the first to report the situation: Putin wants to know in which interdepartmental circuit he was deceived.

Last year, former Vice President Andrei Turchak inspected Governor Roman Starovoit, who, with his decision, endorsed the readiness to equip the Russian-Ukrainian border with a fortification system. Furthermore, it is not clear what decision was made regarding the commander of the Northern Group, Colonel General Lapin, and why the Chief of Staff of the Ground Forces, Colonel General Nikiforov, was sent to Kursk.

It is obvious that Alexei Dyumin's report to the President will be decisive and will predetermine the future fate of several high-ranking officials. Just to return to one point here, Gerasimov is a man with a weakened image in Russia, as someone who spoke to Russians at an arms fair and international events in Russia said, Gerasimov only looks good with the Russian high command because they were all promoted by him, in addition to talking about the corruption of each person involved, seen as an outdated guy, doctrinally backward, this will be his last operation before he is dismissed or he may be dismissed even earlier if his image is further tarnished, Shoigu was another in the same situation as Gerasimov, he was already dismissed and placed on the Security Council. Belousov must open wide the doors of corruption of the entire high command, the same one that validated Gerasimov and continues to defend him, while at the same time if more setbacks happen, Gerasimov will sooner or later be replaced.
The problem is already clear when Prigozhin did his coup thing. Russia had no way to respond to sudden aggression deep in its territory. The best they could come up with is destroy the road, fortify Moscow that time. Hopefully Russian take this lesson to heart this time.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
I wonder what will happen if Ukraine pulled this earlier. Just keep a token number of defenders in its defense line, throw every capable unit into Russia while it still had it. Everything else straight into Moscow. Chances are they will arrive at Moscow faster than Russians arrive at Kiev.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
The problem is already clear when Prigozhin did his coup thing. Russia had no way to respond to sudden aggression deep in its territory. The best they could come up with is destroy the road, fortify Moscow that time. Hopefully Russian take this lesson to heart this time.
Russia is huge with a very long border to Ukraine and other countries. To only man Ukrainian border so that no forces could pass, it would need more troops than all used presently. A forces within could rampage for a long time too.

Letting them through and destroying them in open ground is clearly not a pretty solution with the numerous villages near the border but I don't think they have a better solution right now. ISR is clearly lacking, it's the torn bitting Russia hard, they need to work on that big time.

They react way more than anticipating moves.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
The problem is already clear when Prigozhin did his coup thing. Russia had no way to respond to sudden aggression deep in its territory. The best they could come up with is destroy the road, fortify Moscow that time. Hopefully Russian take this lesson to heart this time.
That vulnerability is at the root of Russia's entire security philosophy and foreign policy. Russia's European border is entirely open, flat terrain. It's trivially easy to invade Russia, you just walk across the border. What Russia has done to cope with this is to extend the enemy's lines deep into its territory and then cut them off and attrite them. That's a very costly and suboptimal solution, which is why Russia - be it the Tzarist Empire or the Soviet Union - surrounded itself with satellite states. Those satellites are meant to be the battlefield on which to attrite the invader rather than fighting on the Russian homeland.

There's no lesson to take to heart beyond extending the protective buffer out as far as possible, that's just the way the Earth formed.
I wonder what will happen if Ukraine pulled this earlier. Just keep a token number of defenders in its defense line, throw every capable unit into Russia while it still had it. Everything else straight into Moscow. Chances are they will arrive at Moscow faster than Russians arrive at Kiev.
That's ridiculous. It should be obvious what Russia will do if its state survival is threatened.
 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
Footage of a head-on battle in Girya, Kursk Oblast, between a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier BTR-4E and a Russian armored personnel carrier BTR-82A. Both combat vehicles are armed with 30-mm 2A72 cannons. In general, the combat vehicles are approximately equal, but the Russian BTR-82A opened fire first, which decided the outcome of the battle, the BTR-4 caught fire. It is worth noting that, according to all the facts of the use of equipment in battles in Ukraine that have been shown over the past 2 years, it was important who first noticed the enemy, this decides the outcome of the battle.

 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
I take Dara's analysis with a pinch of salt. Dara Massicot is a subject matter expert and has spent the better part of the last 20 years studying the Russian military, but, like us, she is an outsider looking in. She is someone who creates a model that tries to explain various disaggregated elements of the Russian military. Which is fine, but it is not authoritative.

Most countries around the world have different command structures between border security, interior security, intelligence services, and regular military troops. Russian "operational crisis" would've happened in most militaries, and there would indeed be uncertainty over who is ultimately in charge.

All things considered, Russians did a decent job of stopping the Ukrainian advance. Local authorities and forces ultimately managed to cobble together a response. In fact, if anyone is to blame, it's Putin and how he organized his government. There shouldn't be a need to appoint someone, there should already be an automated process in place that would empower a specific individual to take charge of the situation. A person who can be replaced with a more suitable one if the situation requires it.

Such a process clearly isn't in place, the need to handpick a commander is a weakness in Russian C2 procedures. Other than that, Russia's "poor performance" during the Kursk incursion is really overstated by social media and punditry.
 

defenceman

Junior Member
Registered Member
Maybe they never expected the Ukranians to escalate beyond some Azov or Russian Legion suicide raids. Not out of overconfidence(I wouldn't rule it out either, though) but because such a thing would have meant drawing resources and manpower from the rest of the front, which seems ill-adviced if you can barely hold the ground you already had as it was in the middle of a manpower and equipment shortage.

They probably didn't think or expect the Ukranian leadership to be that dumb/desperate/bold and we arealdy seeing the effect around New York and other areas.

Ukraine seems to have been planning to build new military cemeteries in every major regional city with a capacity of 100,000 graves and 60,000 urn niches in each. Multiple cemeteries larger than many cities, basically


A Chinese volunteer spotted

Hi,
is he saying I’m Chinese or your guess, what about Korean
thank you
 

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
Hi,
is he saying I’m Chinese or your guess, what about Korean
thank you
He said that he was redoing the loading of the shells and that he doesn't trust the Russians' competence all in fluent Mandarin. So he is Chinese. He became famous due to the Telegram video of him talking about his combat load.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
The assault on Toretsk has begun.
Capturar.JPG
The Russians have captured the first high-rise buildings in the city, where they are already fighting with the Ukrainians. They are currently fighting in the first districts of the city.

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The advance on the Pokrovsk axis has not slowed down. After taking the settlements of Lisichnoye and Sviridonovka and entering the settlement of Hrodivka, the defense of the Ukrainian armed forces is having serious difficulties in holding back the Russian advance. Rumors are that everyone in Myrnohrad is being evacuated to Pokrovsk.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Obituary to a 27 year old Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot, shot down on the 12th. The 'Ghost of Sumy' was shot down over Sumy by an S-400.

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Two destroyed tanks, now properly identified as a PT-91 and a T-72AV, belonging to the AFU 22nd Mechanized Brigade. The front has become a Lancet killing field.

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Lancet takes out a Ukrainian vehicle as Ukrainians tried to advance to Lgov.

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Roschel Senator MRAP gets taken out by a Lancet. Video improperly indicates wrong vehicle. Kursk region.

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It looks like T-05-24 Highway is under Russian control and fire control. Significant penetration by the Russians in Konstantinovka village.

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Destroyed Kozak-7 APC.

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Pokrovsk direction is rapidly deteriorating for the Ukrainians as three settlements fall, and the Russians have entered Grodovka. Toretsk has also been penetrated by Russian DRGs, according to the AFU 32nd Brigade.

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Russian Marines of the 810rd Brigade is towing a captured Stryker. Traces of blood around suggest the previous owners didn't go down easy.

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Some tough talk from Belarus. Hints that it might go into war?

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T-90M firing at a dugout with Ukrainian UAV operators. This in the Kupyansk front which is heating up. The tank fire is being drone adjusted.

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That ambush the Akhmat pulled in Giri, the official tally is seven BTR-4E, one M113, one pickup and up to 50 personnel.

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The Beaver unit attacks three Ukrainian vehicles with FPVs near Korenevo.

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Mi-35M Hind spreading the love in the Kursk border region.

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Two Russian FPV drones struck this Ukrainian vehicle from the Ukrainian point of view.

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Ukrainian command post, or what happened to it after a FAB arrived.

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Lancet hits Ukrainian tank near Melovoy.

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Wagner operated the Vandal FPV drones?

 
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