The War in the Ukraine

Zichan said:

The video of the alleged HIMARS strike on the Russian column in Oktyabrskoe is bizzare: dozens upon dozens of killed Russian soldiers inside Kamaz trucks with some vehicles showing no visible damage, other than flat tires.

The consensus seems to point to “tungsten rain”, the M30A1 warhead with 180,000 preformed tungsten fragments that shred through vehicles and light armor. However, that would imply Ukraine used a cluster like warhead in the middle of an urban settlement.

Potentially an entire battalion was wiped out, making this one of the deadliest single strikes of the war.

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About three to four trucks were struck, because the HIMARS all hit on the same spot, which reduced casualties. If the strike was dispersed---which is why Grads have a wide dispersal pattern---casualties would have been worst.


Furthermore if trucks are armored, they would deflect the tungsten fragments. I have seen many vehicles that absorbed shrapnel damage from HIMARS in their armored cabins including this one in the Kursk region.


Onto other things.

The DPR 110th Brigade has raised it's flag in Nevelskoye in the Pokrovsk sector.


Prechistovka again getting sniped by a LMUR missile. Targeting houses is targeting UAV crews.


Ukrainian APC wiped by a Lancet in Kursk region.


Iran will supply Russia with FATH-360 missiles. Going to nickname them as Iranskanders.


Ukrainian armored convoy is ambushed by ATGMs and drone strikes in Kursk region.


More footage on the destruction of Ukrainian sea drones in failed attack on Sevastopol. I think the Russians have small patrol boats fitted with a Berezhok turret on it. That's like two 30mm guns with four ATGMs.


Destroyed Stryker M1132 ESV or Engineering Support Vehicle with light weight mining trawl. Seen in Kursk region.


Lancet takes out a Ukrainian tank in the Pokrovsk direction.


Ukrainians raided flag on Suja, but not exactly. Turns out to be a gas station outside of it. The city hasn't fallen yet.


Ukrainians caught photoshopping location in their photos.

Fake
Real

Another

Air target or drone shot down by ATGM Whirlwind from a Ka-52.


Uzbekistan flags among Russian reinforcements?


Ukrainian forces hiding in the forests in the Kursk border region gets hit with multiple FABs.


Alleged Ukrainian casualties since the start of the offensive. 950 killed, more than 120 vehicles and equipment including 12 tanks, 5 artillery pieces, 17 APC, 5 BMP, 67 BBM, 2 SAMs and 9 automobiles. If true, that's a lot of manpower and equipment that could have been invested in the defense of other regions.


M113 gets attacked by FPV in the Pokrovsk sector.


Destroyed M113 in the Torestk direction.


Krasnopol, Lancet strikes by the 1st Tank Army in the Kupyansk region. Targets include RAK SA-12, a tank, a BM-21 Grad, mortar sites.


Lipetsk Airfield after struck by the Ukrainians. The part that was struck doesn't look like an airfield but a fuel facility with roads for vehicles going in between. I see no radars, SAMs, aircraft before and after. Fuel facility looks completely destroyed.


Russian D-30 howitzer lands one at a Baba Yaga control site.


Bradley taken out by FPV from the Center Group.


By the 200th Lenvo Brigade. Ukrainian troops spotted running and hiding under a tree cluster, which was hit by an FPV drone. Should be in the Chasiv Yar area.


The take out of an AS-90 by Krasnopol, has the shell coming from a 2S3 Akasya. That makes it an SPG vs. SPG duel.


Deserting? Retreating? Ukrainian TikTok soldier on the run.


FABs landing in the Kharkhiv region.


FAB strike in the Kursk region in Leonidovo.


Russians advancing across the Kanal to Chasiv Yar center.


Russians in counterattack mode as reinforcements arrive.

tankphobia said:

What more can Ukraine do that they haven't already done? Sure they should've mobilized earlier, but we don't even know how many military aged male is left in the country after the initial exodus and likely over a million have seen the front line this war. They have fought for every inch and paid dearly for it. They have conducted deep ranging raids and long ranged strikes on Russia military and oil infrastructure and have proven that they can pretty much keep it up forever. At least they are eating fabs in Russia territory rather than Ukrainian ones, it's even unclear if Russia CAS is even that active in Kursk due to limited recon assets away from the front.

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They can mobilize the country for war. Yes, it'll do irreparable economic damage, but that's what it takes when you are fighting for your survival. Start eliminating non-essential jobs and get everyone either in the factory or digging trenches.

I know they won't do that and Ukraine doesn't want to admit that this isn't about their survival, it's about their aspirations to join NATO, EU, and to pretend like they were always Western Europeans.

tankphobia said:

If Russia didn't get the message 2.5 years into the war then they were never going to get it. After the pound of flesh they have dropped for their gains what reason would they even have to stop? Putin has bet his whole house and legacy on this gambit and it remains to be seen whether the gamble will pay off. This is already the deadliest conflict in Europe since WW2 and there is no end in sight.

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The Russian economy is overheating. Putin isn't stupid and neither are his technocrats. Russia would benefit a lot from reaching some sort of settlement, getting some of their claims recognized, frozen assets back (Unlikely), some sanctions lifted, and of course not having a shooting war on their doorstep.

If Putin can get the political concessions he wants, agree on partition of territory that's ultimately advantageous to Russia, why wouldn't he? A million men and the entire Russian economy can be doing better things than building tanks and watching them get blown up in Ukraine.

HighGround said:

The Russian economy is overheating. Putin isn't stupid and neither are his technocrats. Russia would benefit a lot from reaching some sort of settlement, getting some of their claims recognized, frozen assets back (Unlikely), some sanctions lifted, and of course not having a shooting war on their doorstep.

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According to western "economists" who believe average to high inflation = overheating without considering anything else

Tam said:

Iran will supply Russia with FATH-360 missiles. Going to nickname them as Iranskanders.

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This is unlikely. That is basically the same thing as the Tornado-S. It provides no new capability.

HighGround said:

The Russian economy is overheating. Putin isn't stupid and neither are his technocrats. Russia would benefit a lot from reaching some sort of settlement, getting some of their claims recognized, frozen assets back (Unlikely), some sanctions lifted, and of course not having a shooting war on their doorstep.

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The Russians knew perfectly well what could happen in terms of sanctions going in. The US had already threatened cutting Russian access from SWIFT back in 2014 and it is not like there is no other precedent. They did it to Iran. Banning aircraft sales, they did it to Iran and Venezuela. Confiscation of reserves had already been done to Iran and Venezuela. Iran cannot get money it deposited in South Korea. Venezuela had its gold reserves stored in the Bank of England stolen by the UK. Which is why Russia moved half its Central Bank reserves into Euros, and the other half into Gold. The Gold is stored in Russia in a secure location. A year or two before 2022 they also started moving some of those Euros into Yuan.

Whatever they confiscated, the Russians can get back via either defaulting on debt payments, or confiscating European businesses operating in Russia. As things are the Exit Tax the Russian government put into place when these Western companies leave Russia is already doing most of this work.

HighGround said:

If Putin can get the political concessions he wants, agree on partition of territory that's ultimately advantageous to Russia, why wouldn't he? A million men and the entire Russian economy can be doing better things than building tanks and watching them get blown up in Ukraine.

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Putin said it himself this wasn't about territory. It is not like Russia lacks land. It is about not having Ukraine be a part of NATO ever. Or representing a military threat on Russia's border. If Ukraine needs to be turned into the next Libya, Lebanon, or Gaza Strip, then that is what will happen. John Mearsheimer said it best when he said Russia would just wreck Ukraine.

gelgoog said:

Putin said it himself this wasn't about territory. It is not like Russia lacks land. It is about not having Ukraine be a part of NATO ever. Or representing a military threat on Russia's border. If Ukraine needs to be turned into the next Libya, Lebanon, or Gaza Strip, then that is what will happen. John Mearsheimer said it best when he said Russia would just wreck Ukraine.

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Neutrality and de-militarization is basically a requirement for any agreement that Putin will even consider.

But I expect quibbling over land and who gets what.

eduds6 said:

According to western "economists" who believe average to high inflation = overheating without considering anything else

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High inflation isn't good. Especially in the long-term.


Anyway...

With some of the helicopter footage, i was thinking. How much of an effect are they having? I would think, with Ukrainian DRGs running around and Ukrainians not really dug in yet, this should be a paradise for Russian attack helicopters, but we really haven't heard all that much from them. Granted, that kind of footage is just going to be much rarer, but maybe Russia really is cracking down on cellphones at the front?

I haven't been following this war closely, so feel free to laugh at my uninformed crazy theory. I think the Kursk push maybe a sign Ukraine wants to negotiate asap. Holding a piece of Russian territory will serve as leverage on the peace negotiation, otherwise I just can't see the strategic importance of it, yes I'm aware Ukraine has done a lot of stupid PR stunts before but still.

If I'm right, AND if Ukraine can hold onto it then we may see a sue for peace from Ukraine.

Vastly more likely though is they get pushed out and it is moot

Up until last night I was sorta agreeing with pro Russian folks in here that this is just a PR stunt with no real goal in mind that it was a sudden decision but now I've changed my mind. This was a well planned operation that was likely in the works for weeks maybe longer at least when Ukraine got permission to hit inside Russia using US weapons. I'm still clueless of the goal of this invasion but it looks well planned likely because of lessons learned from last years failed offensive. They took HiMARS maybe ATAMCS with them into Kursk pretty much giving Ukraine invasion force a sorta air support which was displayed as they took out couple of Russian convoys carrying troops to repel Ukraine. As for the lessons learned... last year Ukraine's offensive got severely hit by Russian attack helicopters this time they are using FPV drones and have taken down 2-3 attack helicopters sand it seems to have stopped VKS from using them to repel Ukraine forces. It's also weird the Russian air force attack fighters is pretty much nowhere around maybe because a couple of mobile PAC-2 launchers are just over the border in Kursk with the radar somewhere in Sumy??

So it appears that the level 1 response is to mainly use SpecOps, paramilitary, police, and irregular forces to fight in the breakthrough- grey zone. It appears that the breakthrough- grey zone has not enlarged much today.

Level 2 would be to use actual conventional ground forces units if security forces can't cope with the situation.

"The Russian military command appears to be relying on existing units deployed to the international border area and readily available forces in the rear, most of which are units staffed with conscripts and irregular forces, to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast."




Claimed Russian units there in the beginning and reserves on-route:

1. Russian conscripts, FSB border guards, and elements of Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz units operating under the Russian MoD were reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast as of the beginning of the Ukrainian incursion.

2. additional forces and resources from the Tula Oblast rescue center to deploy to Kursk Oblast to assist with de-mining and civilian evacuations.

3. The Russian military command has reportedly transferred forces from unspecified operational reserves, additional units staffed by conscripts, Spetsnaz (Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian General Staff [GRU]), Special Operations Forces (SSO), additional Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz operating under the Russian MoD, and the 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps (DNR AC) and former Wagner Group personnel to unspecified areas of Kursk Oblast to defend against further Ukrainian advances and retake territory.

4. Other irregular Russian forces, including those previously deployed to other areas of the frontline, are also reportedly arriving in Kursk Oblast. Elements of the DNR's irregular forces, including the "Dikaya Division of Donbas" and the "Pyatnashka" Brigade, reportedly arrived in Kursk Oblast following offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast. [21] The Wagner Group Commanders' Council issued a statement on August 9 declaring Wagner's willingness to deploy to the Kursk Oblast border area "at the first call," and Russian milbloggers claimed that unspecified former Wagner personnel have begun to arrive in Kursk Oblast.

5. Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz are operating throughout Kursk Oblast, including in Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and elements of the Chechen "Aida" Detachment are operating near Sudzha. [23] Elements of the Russian SSO are reportedly also operating throughout Kursk Oblast's border areas, including near Sudzha.

6. Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that there were 14 Ural and KAMAZ covered trucks carrying Russian reserves intended to reinforce Russian forces in Kursk Oblast and that the strike likely killed several Russian personnel traveling in the trucks. [14] Russian sources suggested that the column may have been transporting personnel from the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces' 44th Army Corps (Leningrad Military District) or the "Pyatnashka" Brigade.

The invasion of Russian territory has been prepared for a long time, but Ukrainian units do not plan to stay there for a long time, former Ukrainian Defence Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, who now advises the government, told the Financial Times.


According to him, the operation has several goals. Among them are to distract Russian units from fighting in Ukraine itself and to show ordinary Russians that they can't get away from the war, thus discouraging them from supporting it.
In addition, a decisive operation by the AFU should demonstrate Russia's weaknesses, including its inability to defend its own border. Another goal is to retake the initiative on the battlefield after Ukraine failed to achieve meaningful results in its counteroffensive last year and this year had to cede twice as much territory as it liberated in 2023.
According to Zahorodnyuk, during the operation in Kursk Region, the units demonstrated the ability to implement "new tactics of general military combat" that were taught to them by Western instructors.

tabu said:

(...)and to show ordinary Russians that they can't get away from the war, thus discouraging them from supporting it.

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This stroke of genius could have only come out of a NATO officer's brain. Only they could be so naive as to think "We should invade Russia, because throughout the centuries an invasion of Russian land was a surefire way to have people turn away from their leadership!"