Good analysis. It would explain how Ukraine managed to go through so quickly, because Russians cleared their own defensive mine field. Ukrainians made a dangerous but correct judgement, which is to strike first. They weighted the defender advantage, and considered it insufficient to hold effectively, likely negated by disadvantage of firepower. Counterattack is deadly, but same applies to Russia if caught off guard. The gamble succeeded and threw Russians in a disarray. Several unguarded logistic hub was overrun by Ukraine.According to Weeb Union he has sources within the Russian army and they’ve told him. He has sources in the Ukrainian and Russian armies:
Decided to discuss the situation with my Russian source.
Here are the main points.
This is not a Russian trap, the Ukrainians simply did a good offensive. The Russians were clearing mines for their own Sumy offensive and the Ukrainians took advantage of that to launch their own.
The motive of the Ukrainians is also questioned but the general idea is to "strike first", to avoid a collapse on the Ukrainian side they took the fight to the Russian side before they were ready.
Considering Russia was preparing their own offensive they do indeed have soldiers ready. These were stationed far from the front to avoid detection + fpv/artillery strikes.
This means Russia will likely respond very quickly to this Ukrainian offensive and it will not live for much longer.
Russian side is not panicking at all but they are very busy to respond to the current situation.
Russians quickly mobilized their firepower to inflict damage, but did not have enough ground asset to actually stop the push. When they did gather the ground asset, Ukrainians already made a large gain and managed to dig in.
What happens next remain to be seen. Will Ukrainians hold the gain to take the war damage to Russian land? Or will they call it a success and pull back?