The War in the Ukraine

The information has been updated regarding the incident between a Russian aircraft and an American Global Hawk.... Unlike what the Russians wanted to imply yesterday, a MIG-21 simply forced the American drone to enter emergency and leave the area


They didn't shoot down the aircraft...

tamsen_ikard said:

There is only one answer to the constant erosions of the red line. More and more Russian mobilization of man power and industry. Russia is still playing at war instead of seriously fighting it tooth and nail. In WW2, they were able to field an army of 12 million as their maximum. Population of the soviet union was 180 million in 1939. That's not much bigger than modern Russia. Yes, maybe Russia has less younger men or less ability to mobilize that many people.

But they should have the ability to mobilize 2 million easily. Right now they are fighting in Ukraine with 3-400 thousand men. Its too small.

Russian economy has much more resources and industry than soviet union in ww2. They should be able to sustain such an army if they were serious about this war and take a bit political pain.

But Putin is playing it really safe and using minimal amount of force. This prevents him from losing this war but also doesn't enable him to win it.

Although Russia is slowly ramping it up more and more. Their population is getting ever more supportive and angry about Ukraine and Nato. Russia is also slowly increasing its army size. But the question is if such a slow ramp up will be enough compared to western ramp up. Ukraine is getting more and more sophisticated weapons including fighter jets, missiles and drones.

I do expect Western "volunteer" force to slowly come into Ukraine in the future too. So, I don't know how much time Russia has left before its too late.

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Russia is trying not just to win the conflict within Ukraine, but to win the aftermath as well. The whole point of changing the Defense Minister for example is to optimize resources. The whole idea is there might be a direct conflict with NATO later down the road. Even if there is not a conflict the economy is being geared up to reduce the importance of imports in the overall civilian economy. In case the sanctions get amped up further.

In WW2 the Soviets had to make a lot of tough choices. For example the jet engine development program was frozen. The developers of jet engines were put to work on turbochargers for tank diesel engines. Strategic bomber construction was cancelled. The naval program to construct large surface combatants was also cancelled. The civilian economy was basically switched to military production.

Russia this time expects it can do both guns and butter. And the current plan is to increase the amount of automation in Russian industry to minimize the issue of lack of manpower. Russia currently has an extremely low amount of industrial robots in use. Russia had like 4 robots per 10,000 workers in 2017. That is close to two orders of magnitude less than advanced Western industrial nations.

Sheleah said:

According to Putin's statements, the current deployment in Ukraine is approximately double your estimate, I'm talking about about 700,000 military personnel deployed in the SVO...

These statements by Putin were made last week, and it is not clear if he is including the militants of the separatist republics or is only talking about those mobilized from Russia.

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DPR/LPR forces were absorbed into the Russian armed forces along time ago.

gelgoog said:

Russia is trying not just to win the conflict within Ukraine, but to win the aftermath as well. The whole point of changing the Defense Minister for example is to optimize resources. The whole idea is there might be a direct conflict with NATO later down the road. Even if there is not a conflict the economy is being geared up to reduce the importance of imports in the overall civilian economy. In case the sanctions get amped up further.

In WW2 the Soviets had to make a lot of tough choices. For example the jet engine development program was frozen. The developers of jet engines were put to work on turbochargers for tank diesel engines. Strategic bomber construction was cancelled. The naval program to construct large surface combatants was also cancelled. The civilian economy was basically switched to military production.

Russia this time expects it can do both guns and butter. And the current plan is to increase the amount of automation in Russian industry to minimize the issue of lack of manpower. Russia currently has an extremely low amount of industrial robots in use. Russia had like 4 robots per 10,000 workers in 2017. That is close to two orders of magnitude less than advanced Western industrial nations.

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speaking of changing ministers, in the West it's very normal for re-elected heads of state to adjust ministerial positions here and there, but if the Russians do it, it's called "purging"

So Fighterbomber clarified what he meant with regards to the MiG-31 and the Global Hawk incident. According to him the MiG-31 buzzed the Global Hawk at Mach 2.3, damaging the drone and throwing it off course. Possible given the damage a supersonic shockwave can do in general, but seems a really contrived way of doing things

tamsen_ikard said:

There is only one answer to the constant erosions of the red line.

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The "red line" comes from the west and was never Russia's own invention... The only line that exists for Russia is that they attack back at whatever people are firing at them... Wherever they are. Western mercs are attacking Russia from the territory of Ukraine, and hence western mercs come home in bodybags from Ukraine.

It suits Russia and Russia's backers just fine if US is forced to throw in even more resources, including their own manpower, into the meat grinder.

Russia has many reasons not to go into a full unrestricted war in Ukraine. Not just economical but tactical ones as well. The west is for some reason so scared of crossing its own red lines that they will drip feed in weapons/soldiers that can be destroyed piecemeal, rather than come at Russia all at once, which might have very different results for the Russian forces. This is a strategic mistake on their part, the Russians should exploit it fully.

sheogorath said:

So Fighterbomber clarified what he meant with regards to the MiG-31 and the Global Hawk incident. According to him the MiG-31 buzzed the Global Hawk at Mach 2.3, damaging the drone and throwing it off course. Possible given the damage a supersonic shockwave can do in general, but seems a really contrived way of doing things

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1805810249565082038

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I'm 99% sure this didn't happen either.

Rare for a LMUR X-39 to be used against a vehicle, even though this was the original design intent. LMUR takes out a Ukrainian T-64BV.


Site of Ukrainian UAV operators in Lvove gets hit by a FAB-1500. Kherson direction.


More cannon fodder has been caught by the TCC.


Ukrainian SPG taken out in a counterbattery duel.


Upyr FPV drones expanding it's production and hiring.


AFU 'police department' is discovered and dispatched with accurate artillery.


In the Pokrovsk direction, a Bradley and an Abrams are both knocked out by FPV drones.


FABs and ODABs at the Volchansk area in Kharkhiv region,


Bradley and pickup gets hit by FPV drone courtesy of the Vega SPN.


FAB and ODAB hit forest area where Ukrainian forces are hiding near Liptsy.


Ukrainian artillery position covered by TOS near Gorlovka.


The Somali Battalion scored a breakthrough in Karlivka with a successful storming operation despite heavy fire.


Somali Battalion takes out a Ukrainian BMP-2 and an FV103 Spartan.


FAB strike after spotting another Ukrainian 'police station'.


Bradley under attack by the VT-40s of the Sudoplatov. The Bradley carries heavy EW bubble that cuts off the drones' link. A third FPV drone flies overhead however to confirm a time successful strike.


Krasnopol takes out an M777 courtesy of the Siberian Association. This towards the Pokrovsk direction.


FAB strike on Ukrainian 'police department' on the right bank of Kherson.


Ukrainian Gvozdika knocked out by Lancet near Novoalexandrovka.


TOS hits Ukrainian positions within Urozhayne.


FABs arrive at Cherneschyna.


Russians, here, ex-DPR forces, shell Ukrainian positions in Krasnogorovka and drives an armored column through it.

sheogorath said:

So Fighterbomber clarified what he meant with regards to the MiG-31 and the Global Hawk incident. According to him the MiG-31 buzzed the Global Hawk at Mach 2.3, damaging the drone and throwing it off course. Possible given the damage a supersonic shockwave can do in general, but seems a really contrived way of doing things

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1805810249565082038

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They should probably just shoot them down at this point, but Russia is afraid to escalate.

An episode of an attack by a Ukrainian armored group, consisting of a T-64 tank and a BMP-2, on Russian positions, the location of the filming is not reported, the video has been shortened. The Ukrainian group, using the factor of surprise and high speed, tried to take the Russian position. As a result of the battle, the T-64 tank was hit by Russian artillery, perhaps it was a strike from an FPV drone; judging by the video, the tank’s crew abandoned the combat vehicle. The BMP-2 continued the attack and began landing troops, but the landing force was hit by an ammunition drop from a drone.