The War in the Ukraine

sheogorath said:

According to whom, exactly?. Its funny how you people keep pinning goals and schdules on the Russians that they haven't really stated anywhere so just you can go "see?. They totally failed!".

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According to my eyes.

Is it really that farfetched to think/assume the Russian goal of sending 3 divisions worth of men and armored vehicles to Kharkiv, and taking it, after they used only 200k troops to invade Ukraine? I don't think it is. If anything I gave the Russians 3 goals they were likely trying to accomplished by sending 50k troops to Kharkiv... however all 3 goals were a fail.

Goal 1. Take Kharkiv because why not, right?

Goal 2. Invade get as close to Kharkiv create a buffer for Belgorod which was getting hit a lot and get Kharkiv in range of Russian arty.

Goal 3. Get Ukraine to send troops from other frontlines to Kharkiv region stressing out Ukraine's fighting capability as at the time everyone was saying Ukraine was suffering from troop and ammo shortage which would allow Russian forces in Bakhmut and Avdiivka to finally breakout.

Now goal 2-3 is what we heard a lot the reason Russians were sending a lot of troops to Kharkiv but it has all failed!

Now I get why it would get you somewhat upset pointing out these fails but fails is what they are and you need to accept it.

It's been over a month since Kharkiv campaign started and they have only been able to cross 2-3kms from Russian border into parts of Vovchansk and Russian forces are getting pounded there. Mig-29's are able to reach high altitude and strike Russian targets with their GBUs 2-3kms from Russian border and you don't call that campaign a fail?

This was the last time Russia was going to be able to mass troops near Ukraine border harassment free from now on Russia starts massing troops near Ukraine they are going to get hit by cluster ATACMS and HiMARS.

sheogorath said:

Kind of like when yo lot ran with the "Kiev in three days" which came out of the mouth of General Milley first.

There are a few ways to do Recon that do use divisions to take ground, too.

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Oh like a 2 for 1 thing? Well that failed too.

sheogorath said:

They provide the weapons, the intel and the personnel, is not up to the Ukranian or their fanboys who like to yap but don't seem as willing to put their money where their mouth is and help plug the gaps in Ukraine's trenches.

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Well luckily for Ukraine Russian army is not as good to worry about plugging gaps.

sheogorath said:

Which also shows clearly how NATO is also quite involved in this war despite the insistent denials of some

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I've been saying from the beginning ISR is all done by US/NATO. That is still no excuse for horrible Russian army performance or its air force which is a no-show in this war.

SolarWarden said:

Is it really that farfetched to think/assume the Russian goal of sending 3 divisions worth of men and armored vehicles to Kharkiv, and taking it, after they used only 200k troops to invade Ukraine? I don't think it is. If anything I gave the Russians 3 goals they were likely trying to accomplished by sending 50k troops to Kharkiv... however all 3 goals were a fail.

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It is basically impossible to take and hold a city that large with 50k troops. The Kharkiv metro city has like 1.7 million people.

SolarWarden said:

Goal 1. Take Kharkiv because why not, right?
Goal 2. Invade get as close to Kharkiv create a buffer for Belgorod which was getting hit a lot and get Kharkiv in range of Russian arty.
Goal 3. Get Ukraine to send troops from other frontlines to Kharkiv region stressing out Ukraine's fighting capability as at the time everyone was saying Ukraine was suffering from troop and ammo shortage which would allow Russian forces in Bakhmut and Avdiivka to finally breakout.

Now goal 2-3 is what we heard a lot the reason Russians were sending a lot of troops to Kharkiv but it has all failed!

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We keep hearing how Russia is not using armor in their Kharkiv invasion. And how this is supposed to mean the Russians are running out of tanks or something. To me the whole idea is to goad Ukrainian forces to counterattack in this area. While Russian infantry operates under cover of TOS flamethrower artillery and the like. This is basically Bakhmut 2.0.
Longer term objectives might be exactly what you said. But they certainly are not at this time. If they were the Russians would have sent the armor in.

SolarWarden said:

It's been over a month since Kharkiv campaign started and they have only been able to cross 2-3kms from Russian border into parts of Vovchansk and Russian forces are getting pounded there.

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Still more than what Ukraine's Summer Offensive did the whole of last year.

SolarWarden said:

Mig-29's are able to reach high altitude and strike Russian targets with their GBUs 2-3kms from Russian border and you don't call that campaign a fail?

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The bombing strikes are happening but I have seen no evidence that Ukraine is dropping the bombs at high altitude. If they were doing bomb drops at long distance and high altitude then it is highly likely the GPS guidance package would be jammed and they wouldn't be hitting their targets.

SolarWarden said:

This was the last time Russia was going to be able to mass troops near Ukraine border harassment free from now on Russia starts massing troops near Ukraine they are going to get hit by cluster ATACMS and HiMARS.

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Ukraine was already striking Belgorod with MLRS before the Russians went into Kharkiv. And yet Russia managed to get into Kharkiv anyway.

SolarWarden said:

That is still no excuse for horrible Russian army performance or its air force which is a no-show in this war.

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So you claim. So where is the NATO no-fly zone over Ukraine? *crickets*

Ukrainian drone boats being used for resupply gets struck by VT-40 drones.


Ukrainian tank and Humvee knocked out by Russian artillery.


BMP-3 at the office providing fire support. These things are underrated as any form of fire support is valuable.


More than 100 Ukrainians are trying to escape through the borders everyday.


Russians are purposedly hunting down Ukrainian drones using a mesh called 'Grid Meter'.


Lancet strike on a Pzh2000 in the Kharkhiv front.


LMUR, aka X-39 or Kh-39, launched from a Mi-28NM helicopter.


New footage on strike on two P-18 radars stationed in the Pokrovsk direction, used as early warning against strikes on this important logistics hub. The culprits are X-35 antiship missiles from a Flanker.


The Ukrainian commander of the eastern front, General Sodol, enjoying himself on a restaurant in Odessa while the Russians overran his forces towards Shumy-Torestk.


Lancets from the 200th "Lenovo" Brigade from Leningrad hit Ukrainian vehicles in Chasiv Yar.


French Hammer strike on area with no discernable military use potential. It's a typical car parking lot.


Kharkhiv apartment building hit during FAB strike or as Ukrainian media allegedly claim. If that was a real FAB strike there won't be an apartment building standing. The strike came from a direction, which is west, which would make no sense from a Russian launching, which is north east. This is likely a SAM that missed.


Kirpi knocked out.


Mitsubishi L200 pickup used by Ukrainians after an FPV drone strike. This type of truck is commonly seen and used on both sides of the conflict. Also known in other places as the Triton or Strada.


Two knocked out Ukrainian BMP-2.


This looks like a vehicle that was used by Ukrainian UAV operators and was knocked out. The vehicle itself is a Tiger-M previously captured from the Russians.


**Important**. This is the sighting of a Russian KAMAZ vehicle in the Sumy sector with a new unseen before tactical sign.


Ukrainian GAZ-66 truck that hit a mine.


Knocked out by FPV drone Ukrainian BMP-1.

Fire, Explosion in Polish Arms Factory Supplying Weapons to Ukraine​

The Mesko arms factory in Poland, known to manufacture weapons and ammunition used by Ukraine in the war, went up in flames following a major explosion.
Knewz.com has learned that the incident occurred on Monday, June 10, and claimed the life of one of the factory workers.
The explosion at the rocket fuel center of the factory rocked the community in the city of Skarżysko-Kamienn and raised safety concerns about the arms plant.
...
Preliminary reports suggested that the explosion and the resulting fire may have been caused by a malfunction in production equipment, per a CBS News report that cited local police spokesperson Jarosław Gwóźdź.
The incident previously raised concerns about the safety protocols at the weapons factory, as it was also the site of two other fatal accidents back in 2021 when two explosions killed two women in their forties.
...
However, given that several parts of Europe had mysterious fires break out in warehouses and shopping centers, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk hinting that it could be the handiwork of Russia-backed saboteurs, a Russian involvement at the Mesko arms factory explosion cannot be entirely ruled out.
It should be noted that the weapons plant manufactured an array of weapons, ammunition, and missiles that were used by Volodymyr Zelensky's armed forces in the Ukraine war.

gelgoog said:

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Fire, Explosion in Polish Arms Factory Supplying Weapons to Ukraine​

The Mesko arms factory in Poland, known to manufacture weapons and ammunition used by Ukraine in the war, went up in flames following a major explosion.
Knewz.com has learned that the incident occurred on Monday, June 10, and claimed the life of one of the factory workers.
The explosion at the rocket fuel center of the factory rocked the community in the city of Skarżysko-Kamienn and raised safety concerns about the arms plant.
...
Preliminary reports suggested that the explosion and the resulting fire may have been caused by a malfunction in production equipment, per a CBS News report that cited local police spokesperson Jarosław Gwóźdź.
The incident previously raised concerns about the safety protocols at the weapons factory, as it was also the site of two other fatal accidents back in 2021 when two explosions killed two women in their forties.
...
However, given that several parts of Europe had mysterious fires break out in warehouses and shopping centers, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk hinting that it could be the handiwork of Russia-backed saboteurs, a Russian involvement at the Mesko arms factory explosion cannot be entirely ruled out.
It should be noted that the weapons plant manufactured an array of weapons, ammunition, and missiles that were used by Volodymyr Zelensky's armed forces in the Ukraine war.

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It will be Russian if they need more hate politics and fear mongering. It will be "accident safety violation" when nato got too chicken and daddy uncle Sam told them to sit back down. Which ever narrative that will fuel their political needs at the moment.

Third FAB-3000 strike on Ukrainian armed forces in Liptsy.


Ukrainian MLRS taken out in Stupochky.


Ukrainian command center in Lvove, Kherson region, takes four FAB-500s at the same spot. This is a good convenient chance to compare the two boom--- a single FAB-3000 or four FAB-500 at the same spot.


Another Pzh2000 attacked and struck by a Lancet in the Kharkhiv front. Like in the previous video, the Pzh2000 tries to hide in the forest after firing. This proves to be futile against thermals.


Ukrainian supply truck hit by FPV drone. Another FPV drone confirms footage of the kill. By the Sudoplatov.


Lancet hits AFU radar near Petrivka.


TOS strikes with an incendiary attack on Ukrainian positions in Synkivka.


TOS strikes on Ukrainian positions in high rises in Volchansk.


Ukrainian TCC van burns after a civilian attack.


FPV drone from Beaver unit strikes at a Ukrainian transport. In a second strike against another Ukrainian truck, an Orlan visually confirms the kill.


Four ATACMS missiles were successfully intercepted in Sevastopol. A fifth missile, trying to avoid air defenses, exploded over the city sending cluster munitions down to the civilian population. Five people were seriously wounded including two children who were killed.


Burning Ukrainian pickup after FPV drone strikes. I believe civilian pickups are being used due to their speed, which is hoping they can outrace FPV drones in time or make it difficult to get hit. However that's not often the case.


FAB strikes in Kherson against Baba Yaga operators and more.

These UMPK Fab Glide bombs are finally allowing Russia the ability use its biggest advantage compared to Ukraine, which is the big air force. Russia lacked cheap precision strike munitions. Now with Fab they can use the Air Force to maybe achieve a game changing break through that can break the stalemate in the battlefield.

Jason claims that with open sources the Russians in the Kharkiv' direction has brought up reinforcements- so the approx. number of infantry/recon battalions on both sides are now approx. equal if the formations identified are complete on both sides.

So, very roughly there are less than 25,000 infantry + recon troops on both sides. Also it appears that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is stuck for the time being.


Open-sourced report on Russian ORBAT circa October 2023

Per OOB, Russians have roughly 10-7 infantry + recon battalions per division. Usually the battalions are around 500-400 men each.

Brigades and Regiments should have 3 infantry battalions each, like the Ukrainian brigades.

Cult Icon said:

Jason claims that with open sources the Russians in the Kharkiv' direction has brought up reinforcements- so the approx. number of infantry/recon battalions on both sides are now approx. equal if the formations identified are complete on both sides.

So, very roughly there are less than 25,000 infantry + recon troops on both sides. Also it appears that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is stuck for the time being.

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Open-sourced report on Russian ORBAT circa October 2023

Per OOB, Russians have roughly 10-7 infantry + recon battalions per division. Usually the battalions are around 500-400 men each.

Brigades and Regiments should have 3 infantry battalions each, like the Ukrainian brigades.

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Basically another meat grinder for the AFU’s most elite forces. As long has Russia has superiority in firepower( artillery,glide bombs,drones) they can allow the Ukrainians keep smashing their most elite units into the buzz saw like last summer’s debacle.

JJD1803 said:

Basically another meat grinder for the AFU’s most elite forces. As long has Russia has superiority in firepower( artillery,glide bombs,drones) they can allow the Ukrainians keep smashing their most elite units into the buzz saw like last summer’s debacle.

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Overall it appears that the Russian strategy is that they want to completely disrupt the AFU's training cycle for its attack-capable forces with this new front.

It is interesting to see all these 'elite destroyed' units reappear again- eg. (82nd AB, 3rd Tank, 36 Marine, 57th Brigade AFU etc) vs (810 NIB and 155 NIB) after refit and being used again in the attack.

Around Kharkiv' there is also the Ukr 5th Assault Brigade, 71st Jaeger, 13th Brigade that haven't been fed in yet.

The titles attached to these units is likely deceptive- I doubt that the training standards and combined arms skills of these units are completely adequately developed.