The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog said:

They have done it with less or any preparation compared to the Kharkiv direction where they had plowed the field with artillery and FAB. Looking even more like a scouting/poking incursion.

Ukraine forces will still need to react and divert some troops over there...

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Ukraine moved a lot of units over to the Kharkiv' direction which as made it somewhat easier to advance in the Eastern Front, but not enough yet.



So far there is nothing more about the Sumy direction. But if the Russians want to get real results they'd have to open Sumy and Chernigov fronts again with the same tactics. A big downgrade in troop presence in the East to plug up the north would have serious consequences for Ukraine.

Cult Icon said:

Ukraine moved a lot of units over to the Kharkiv' direction which as made it somewhat easier to advance in the Eastern Front, but not enough yet.

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So far there is nothing more about the Sumy direction. But if the Russians want to get real results they'd have to open Sumy and Chernigov fronts again with the same tactics. A big downgrade in troop presence in the East to plug up the north would have serious consequences for Ukraine.

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I think these push in Kharkiv and Sumy are more to help cutting the front lenght in Donetz and Luhansk, than creating more front lenght. The number commited presently in the Kharkiv push are clearly not enough to expand that much.

Russia don't have unlimited troops and prefer doing troops rotations than committing all.

More Russian s300/400 targeted in Crimea by ATACMs
Ukraine doesn't confirm anything it's the US that tells Ukraine whether the strike was a success
with their numerous means of knowing. All this uptick of taking out Russian IADS coincides with
the soon arrival of F-16's which is why more Patriot batteries are also arriving in Ukraine really soon.

And HiMARS takes out BUK m2

Assuming the reporting is correct, why is the ATACMS suddenly (I don't remember many strikes like this in the past) having success against modern Russian surface to air missile systems?

I though the ATACMS was outdated from US perspective and thus wouldn't be as effective against modern Russian surface to air missile systems?

SlothmanAllen said:

Assuming the reporting is correct, why is the ATACMS suddenly (I don't remember many strikes like this in the past) having success against modern Russian surface to air missile systems?

I though the ATACMS was outdated from US perspective and thus wouldn't be as effective against modern Russian surface to air missile systems?

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The first report of a successful attack with ATACMS against 2 S-300/400 has not yet been confirmed and Russian sources have posted three images of undamaged operational batteries on the ground.

SlothmanAllen said:

Assuming the reporting is correct, why is the ATACMS suddenly (I don't remember many strikes like this in the past) having success against modern Russian surface to air missile systems?

I though the ATACMS was outdated from US perspective and thus wouldn't be as effective against modern Russian surface to air missile systems?

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Numbers used + cluster warheads. They got quite a big batch in their hands and they use them in large salvo in savage barrage.. Sure that used like that it cannot fail but we will see how long they could launch them at this rate.

Keeping them for when they will receive a batch of f-16 to open gaps would be clever but it seem they cannot wait. Russian ground troops formations could be better options right now...

Atomicfrog said:

I think these push in Kharkiv and Sumy are more to help cutting the front lenght in Donetz and Luhansk, than creating more front lenght. The number commited presently in the Kharkiv push are clearly not enough to expand that much.

Russia don't have unlimited troops and prefer doing troops rotations than committing all.

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It is evident that in the Kharkiv' direction the Ukrainian forces (including newly inserted reserves with 'elite' titles that spearhead the NATO-Ukraine counteroffensive of 2023) are counterattacking quite a lot- more so than in all other directions combined. So the Ukr command & Zelensky see this as more critical than the other directions.

The Russian main effort appears to be the right wing with the left wing in defense. The grouping towards Vovchansk is using a water barrier to their advantage. The longer this battle continues, the Ukrainian reserves will get more and more degraded until Ukr command will have to send more and more. The Russians have accomplished this without committing too many troops.

In WW2 the classic Soviet tactic was to create 1-2 new active fronts, with at least 1 active front far way from the other 2. The Germans would then be confronted with a dilemma- they did not know where the main effort could be and the Soviets would shift the main effort from place to place. Then when the situation got critical the Germans would throw their reserves in one 'breakthrough' area (reinforced by Soviet military deception)- meanwhile the Soviets would launch the real breakthrough in the weakest front.

SlothmanAllen said:

Assuming the reporting is correct, why is the ATACMS suddenly (I don't remember many strikes like this in the past) having success against modern Russian surface to air missile systems?

I though the ATACMS was outdated from US perspective and thus wouldn't be as effective against modern Russian surface to air missile systems?

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While I don't discount the recent knocking out of the S-300/400 systems due to other corroboration, I would note that Visegrad 24 is as reliable as something your Uncle Bill saw on Facebook

A reminder:

supersnoop said:

While I don't discount the recent knocking out of the S-300/400 systems due to other corroboration, I would note that Visegrad 24 is as reliable as something your Uncle Bill saw on Facebook

A reminder:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1497033813284859929

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Dude fog of war. Shall we bring up pro Russian channel and their far-out tweets beginning of war?

SolarWarden said:

Dude fog of war. Shall we bring up pro Russian channel and their far-out tweets beginning of war?

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Again, my point is not about pro-Russian or pro-Ukraine, just that Visegrad 24 are a bunch of liars

and so on...