The War in the Ukraine

This is not how you wage a war. Russia is very fortunate that the Ukrainians are equally corrupt and that US is not fully invested in their victory. In fact US is filled with so much political division that it can not objectively see that helping Ukraine defeat Russia is a massive geopolitical victory. Instead, it's fighting for a stalemate. Why? I don't know.

(Don't want to get too much into politics but I would say that before the war, US objective should have been to draw Russia away from China and bring into a semi-ally role like its dealing with India. This means US abandoning NATO expansion with Ukraine and placating to some of Russia's demand. Biden didn't do that and the war has started and now US best strategy is to help Ukraine defeat Russia. A defeated Russia might possible lead to Russia's breakup into multiple countries and then the Russia problem will be miniaturized. NATO expansion can easily move forward afterwards. Of topic discussion so I'm ending it)

Russia military leadership has shown how inept and stupid they are for the past 2 years. They are slow to adapt and are not properly organized.
The small propeller drone situation can easily be solved by simply doing CAP missions. Have air defense in one certain known corridors and then assigned CAP missions to fill the holes not covered by air defense. Their jets should be capable of flying high with their radars turned on and doing rotation flights to constantly monitor that air space. This also creates de-confliction between the CAP jets and the air defense battery since they both know where they each operate. Simple, simple plan. [US showed the world how this is done with its defense of Israel]

But these old fart heads in charge are so corrupt and dumb, they wait till their young troops die before taking action.
For instance, it took about 20+ Russian jets being shot by their own air defense units before they assigned the air force to be in charge of air defense batteries.

They are persecuting this war so badly it's baffling. They could easily turn off the power to Ukraine but they are not doing it. Power alone will render so many things useless for the Ukrainians like military bases and even specific power hungry gears like radar stations. NATO would have turned Ukraine into the stone ages by now. Without power, Ukraine citizens would sue for peace.

Observing this war is like watching a cage fight between a sumo slammer and a wrestler. The sumo slammer knows it can easily squash the wrestler and win the fight but holds himself back. While the wrestler just doesn't stay down and give up. He keeps getting back up onto his feet because he has a bunch of adoring fans cheering for him in the crowd. He feeds off the crowds energy. The fight keeps dragging on.

The UFC fighter meanwhile sitting in the back thinks both of them sucks and that he would have decked them a long time ago if he was in the cage.

This is what this war is. Russia is ineptitude, incompetent, and at the same time not serious about winning, while Ukraine just doesn't give up and keeps punching above it weight thanks to its adoring fans.

Bellum_Romanum said:

Pardon for asking this question that's related to the supposedly new drone that Russia is intending to use in the war. I saw this posted on Reddit.

If my assumption is correct this purported "Russian" drone to be used in the ongoing unfortunate and sad situation in Ukraine, looks a lot or similar to what's been showcased in China a year or two ago in Zhuhai air show?

View attachment 130955View attachment 130956View attachment 130960

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That's last gen UAV compared to China's latest firefighting UAV.

Kich said:

They are persecuting this war so badly it's baffling. They could easily turn off the power to Ukraine but they are not doing it. Power alone will render so many things useless for the Ukrainians like military bases and even specific power hungry gears like radar stations. NATO would have turned Ukraine into the stone ages by now. Without power, Ukraine citizens would sue for peace.

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Collective punishment is a war crime and an act of terrorism. Going after civilians is an act of terrorism. Russia, unlike NATO and the Americans, is not a terrorist state. There is the other factor, which is the fact that Ukraine is a neighbouring state of the same ethnicity and speaks the same language, so turning Ukraine into a rump state may have dire consequences for Russia in the long term. The goal is to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table, not to flatten it. The fight has to be as clean as humanly possible and kept close to the contact line.

T-90M being mass produced.


58th SPN bombs an MRAP Maxxpro used to transfer supplies and personnel in Chasiv Yar. Not only did the Maxxpro flipped and died, but the whole event revealed the location of a Ukrainian position, which will get bombed and shelled soon enough.


A soldier of the 36th Army shows of his collection of downed and captured Baba Yagas using EW.


Another Abrams goes down by FPV drone. This one appears unprotected so it lit up on a single hit.


Lancet takes out a German Gepard. Usually NATO equipment is manned by officers of that same nation. This one also lit up.


An irony this time. A Ukrainian 2A65 MSTA-B finds itself on the receiving end of a Krasnopol after being lit by an Orlan. Chances are good it's another MSTA that fired it.


Russian artillery takes out Ukrainian tank in Zhelanne.


Russians took three villages in the Kupyansk area.


The 14th SPN bombs a Ukrainian field ammo depot by drone.


18 Ukrainian draft dodgers managed to make it to Hungary. The day before 32 people managed to get through.


Another captured Baba Yaga. Does the Russians reprogram and repurpose them?


Another new ground drone, Impulse-M, being developed.


A hit on a Ukrainian occupied shelter in Sokol.


Results of a Baba Yaga shot down with the help of a thermal imager.


There was an incident in Odessa where the Ukrainian TCC tried to kidnap and force recruit the medics of an ambulance. This is insanely stupid and reeks of extreme desperation.


FPV drones hit a Ukrainian UAV crew site and two tanks near Chasiv Yar.


Another Bradley attacked by FPV drone.


FPV drone successfully rams a Baba Yaga headed to bomb Russian lines.


House demolition in Krasnogorovka as Russian drones and artillery single out homes used by Ukrainian soldiers to shelter.


A hit on a fortification takes out a Ukrainian tank, this using a 2S7 Pion.


Ukrainian ammo depot hit by Russian artillery in Volchansk. Drones discovered the site and transferred coordinates. Possibly a Tornado-S or Uragan strike.


PZH-2000 gets hit by a Lancet. Next scene is a Note EW system taken out by Lancet.


Ukrainian BM-21 Grad was tracked by a Russian drone to it's hanger which could contain other Ukrainian vehicles. The hanger is hit by artillery. This in the northern sector. Possible Krasnopol strike. Having drones track your vehicle to a hanger, camp, position or depot is heavy noob mistake.


Lancet takes out a hidden Ukrainian howitzer in the northern sector.

Kich said:

This is not how you wage a war. Russia is very fortunate that the Ukrainians are equally corrupt and that US is not fully invested in their victory. In fact US is filled with so much political division that it can not objectively see that helping Ukraine defeat Russia is a massive geopolitical victory. Instead, it's fighting for a stalemate. Why? I don't know.

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You should also consider that if US sends too much too fast, it will trigger Russia to ask for more weapon transfers. Plus US have their own territorial ambitions which they technically need every single item and more to credibly threaten.

Kich said:

(Don't want to get too much into politics but I would say that before the war, US objective should have been to draw Russia away from China and bring into a semi-ally role like its dealing with India. This means US abandoning NATO expansion with Ukraine and placating to some of Russia's demand. Biden didn't do that and the war has started and now US best strategy is to help Ukraine defeat Russia. A defeated Russia might possible lead to Russia's breakup into multiple countries and then the Russia problem will be miniaturized. NATO expansion can easily move forward afterwards. Of topic discussion so I'm ending it)

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Also not gonna discuss this much, but a breakup of a nuclear state with a well supported economy is really unlikely to happen just because of a hypothetical crushing war defeat. America lost over 10 000 aircraft and suffered 300 000+ casualties in conscripts over Vietnam, while it's enemies back then might have coped that such a defeat would break them up, it was very unlikely to begin with.

Kich said:

Russia military leadership has shown how inept and stupid they are for the past 2 years. They are slow to adapt and are not properly organized.
The small propeller drone situation can easily be solved by simply doing CAP missions. Have air defense in one certain known corridors and then assigned CAP missions to fill the holes not covered by air defense. Their jets should be capable of flying high with their radars turned on and doing rotation flights to constantly monitor that air space. This also creates de-confliction between the CAP jets and the air defense battery since they both know where they each operate. Simple, simple plan. [US showed the world how this is done with its defense of Israel]

Click to expand...

Kich said:

But these old fart heads in charge are so corrupt and dumb, they wait till their young troops die before taking action.

Click to expand...

Kich said:

For instance, it took about 20+ Russian jets being shot by their own air defense units before they assigned the air force to be in charge of air defense batteries.

They are persecuting this war so badly it's baffling. They could easily turn off the power to Ukraine but they are not doing it. Power alone will render so many things useless for the Ukrainians like military bases and even specific power hungry gears like radar stations. NATO would have turned Ukraine into the stone ages by now. Without power, Ukraine citizens would sue for peace.

Click to expand...

NATO has never fought a war against an enemy that has even a few modern air defense batteries. So essentially 100% speculative how a NATO offensive would have fared.

Kich said:

Observing this war is like watching a cage fight between a sumo slammer and a wrestler. The sumo slammer knows it can easily squash the wrestler and win the fight but holds himself back. While the wrestler just doesn't stay down and give up. He keeps getting back up onto his feet because he has a bunch of adoring fans cheering for him in the crowd. He feeds off the crowds energy. The fight keeps dragging on.

The UFC fighter meanwhile sitting in the back thinks both of them sucks and that he would have decked them a long time ago if he was in the cage.

This is what this war is. Russia is ineptitude, incompetent, and at the same time not serious about winning, while Ukraine just doesn't give up and keeps punching above it weight thanks to its adoring fans.

Click to expand...

Basically both Russia and NATO experience signficant organizational inertia, for not entirely clear reasons. For example NATO waited like half a year to put on basic anti drone countermasures on their tanks and advised Ukrainian fighters to drive them en masse into minefields. This single act of organizational inertia alone killed far more combatants for their side than any organizational inertia on the Russian side, but on the other hand Russia also has prominently displayed their own inertia in several cases.

The goal of Russia is, brutally speaking, to empty Ukraine of anti Russian Ukrainians. It does not necessarily want to take huge amounts of land immediately, because doing so risks NATO attacking more heavily and achieving breakthrough in poorly controlled areas before Russia can properly stabilize using allied support. And NATO of course would want a total victory but is heavily constrained in how much they can escalate due to fear of raising global tension + American territorial ambitions as said above.

Russian Buk M2 and Pantsir taken out by Ukraine forces

SolarWarden said:

Russian Buk M2 and Pantsir taken out by Ukraine forces

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800578123576078535

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1800558845313393095

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That's a Buk M1. It can be spotted with the radome it uses. Also looks more like an FPV drone to me.

Index said:

You should also consider that if US sends too much too fast, it will trigger Russia to ask for more weapon transfers. Plus US have their own territorial ambitions which they technically need every single item and more to credibly threaten.

Also not gonna discuss this much, but a breakup of a nuclear state with a well supported economy is really unlikely to happen just because of a hypothetical crushing war defeat. America lost over 10 000 aircraft and suffered 300 000+ casualties in conscripts over Vietnam, while it's enemies back then might have coped that such a defeat would break them up, it was very unlikely to begin with.



NATO has never fought a war against an enemy that has even a few modern air defense batteries. So essentially 100% speculative how a NATO offensive would have fared.

Basically both Russia and NATO experience signficant organizational inertia, for not entirely clear reasons. For example NATO waited like half a year to put on basic anti drone countermasures on their tanks and advised Ukrainian fighters to drive them en masse into minefields. This single act of organizational inertia alone killed far more combatants for their side than any organizational inertia on the Russian side, but on the other hand Russia also has prominently displayed their own inertia in several cases.

The goal of Russia is, brutally speaking, to empty Ukraine of anti Russian Ukrainians. It does not necessarily want to take huge amounts of land immediately, because doing so risks NATO attacking more heavily and achieving breakthrough in poorly controlled areas before Russia can properly stabilize using allied support. And NATO of course would want a total victory but is heavily constrained in how much they can escalate due to fear of raising global tension + American territorial ambitions as said above.

Click to expand...

What would NATO do better other than fail, remember these are the same people that spent two decades in Afghanistan before they had an epiphany.

Ukrainian S-300P unit gets Iskandered. Two launchers, two radars one is a low altitude radar the other the guidance radar, and the command unit totaled. Two Iskanders arrive on the site.


Ukrainian Su-27 airfield gets Iskandered. I don't know how many Iskanders arrive in total, but with one, one Su-27 appears totaled with confidence, and two might be shrapneled. But I think it's the airfield itself that's the real target. Depending on the missile the airfield can be cratered to prevent further use. Although it can be repaired, the strike can be repeated again.


Not sure why the drones observing the S-300 system and the Su+27 airfield---the ones taking the very footage---weren't shot down, much less how they were able to approach within visual distance.

Burning Abrams west of Avdeyevka and Ocheretino. I believe this is the one Sudoplatov took out with FPV drones.


Fires in Kviv after missiles or drones arrived. Fire is huge and sustained, at least 150 firefighters involved. This points to a warehouse being hit, likely containing munitions and weapons.


Missiles arrive in Dnipropetrovsk.


FPV drones attack a Ukrainian tank and an IFV in the Chasiv Yar area. By the 98th VDV.


Russian FPV drones hit surveillance cameras in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk. Not sure why, such cameras are often the source of proof for missile and drone arrivals.


Another bridge gets bombed but this looks more like an X-38ML strike with an Orlan 10/30 or Granat 4 lasing. More bridges taken out, the more pinched the Ukrainian logistics network are.


FABs or UMPBs arrive on Ukrainian positions.


MAN HX81 truck tractor destroyed. This might be one of those previously filmed getting Lanceted.


Bradley hits a mine. It's reported the driver died.


Krab gets hit by Lancet. This is likely destroyed as it's ammunition detonated.


Ukrainian military communication tower gets destroyed by FPV drone from Sudoplatov. The new thing here is that it's not the usual quadcopter drone but winged drones this time.


Despite the commentary, this looks to me a Ukrainian MRAP getting Krasnopoled.