The War in the Ukraine

Russian troops hit Kiev. A large-scale missile strike was carried out by six X-101 missiles fired by Russian strategic bombers. On the outskirts of Kiev, T-72 tanks supplied by Eastern European countries and other armored vehicles located in the buildings of the Darnitsky wagon repair company were destroyed.


The attack of the soldiers of the Russian special forces of Chechnya in Ukraine. The Ukrainian soldier ignored the offer to surrender, after which he was destroyed in battle by soldiers of the Russian special forces.


Servicemen of the 45th artillery brigade of Ukraine, published an episode of the video of the destruction of the Ukrainian UAV. The drone corrected the artillery fire of Ukraine but was destroyed by the Russian SAM.


The US Department of Defense has published footage showing M113 armored personnel carriers preparing to be sent to Ukraine. In total, Kiev will receive 200 armored personnel carriers, which have been in service with the United States since the 1960s. The American M113 APC turned out to be successful and became the most massive armored personnel carrier in history. The armored personnel carrier can carry 11 infantrymen. The body of the APC is made of aluminum armor, with the addition of manganese and magnesium. One of the unsuccessful decisions of the APC, the lack of loopholes for shooters. A large-caliber 12.7 mm Browning M2NV machine gun was installed as the main armament on the M113 APC. The range of the car is up to 480 kilometers, in new versions.

FriedButter said:

Give it some more time. Then we can start seeing the post about disastrous Russian retreat further West



Turns out. The reason why the West is scared of sending advance/heavy equipment to Ukraine is because they fear that the Ukrainians will obliterate the Russians/Militia and then invade Russia.

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Hold on, wait so I just need to get this straight. The only reason why the west, (who have directly stated that they want Russia to collapse and Putin overthrown) do not want to give Ukraine more weapons is because they are afraid Ukraine would win to much?

Ukr air defense these days.... Come on lads! Shoot down those Kalibrs!

Strangelove said:

Ukr air defense these days.... Come on lads! Shoot down those Kalibrs!

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It's the bystander sitting on the rail wire that baffle me... waiting for a close sighting of a krasnopol ?

anzha said:

Oh, that's easy. They're for training.

You are right though: if they were simply deployed to the front line, they'd be toast in short order.

I expect if the Ukrainians are trained and shown to be able to use the HIMARS effectively, then they'll get a whole lot more.

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The more time pass, the less help bill they will get from the US... Biden getting less and less leverage at home with all the internal problems growing like weeds. Food prices, fuel prices, gun regulations turning haywire, etc... If they don't send a bunch of them in the next month, they will never send them more or less. Not sure where the russians will be in one month...

Strangelove said:

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Metal recycling will be a thing for multiple years after that war! So many brass laying and hulk of steel. We will see shipload of them if they cannot melt them in ingot at new plant in Mariupol, not sure the old ones are still usable.

How many time an artillery casing can be refurnished ? Someone know ?

RIA published several pictures of what seems like a repair yard for T-72's andT-80's. The location is unknown.

This is the kind of situation were soviet ruggedness is an advantage.









Betcha Oryx will count these as losses, too.

I am curious to see if Spain sending its Leopard 2A4s will be true or another MiG-29 situation. Part of the reason I have doubts is due to the fact the Germans will have veto, if I recall correctly, and Germany's Schloz would be best described as a wunderwaffel.

The Norwegians also claim to have shipped 20 M109 artillery pieces to Ukraine. This is the 2nd country to have done this, after Belgium.

The rumor as to why the Bayraktars have disappeared from social media is they are what is being used to raid or help guide the attacks on Belgorod and other cities near the Ukrainian border. Belgorod and other locales are still getting hit and we hear (occasionally) from Russian governors the Ukrainians have shelled locations within Russia proper. The Ukrainians have taken a very circumspect commentary about what and how those raids are taking place. Not releasing video and the TB2s 'disappearance' could fit that narrative. OTOH, they could be all shot down; however, the Russian air force has not exactly covered itself in glory or demonstrated a lot of effectiveness: Ukrainian Su-25s are operating in Kharkov and the Donbass regularly.

And it appears the Ukrainians may have bagged another couple Russian generals. Roman Kutuzov and Roman Berdnikov, commanders of the 5th and 29th armies, are claimed to have been killed. There's a photo of the body of the first floating around and I won't link to that.

A little update on the Russian losses tracker I have been doing. The amount of equipment lost week to week has gone down significantly. I take this not so much as a case equipment is or is not being lost, but the fact the frontlines are relatively slow moving. If the Russians pushed hard and were pushed back, we'd see a lot more equipment losses or if the Ukrainians moved forward, we'd see the same.

The Russians have lost over 58% of the tanks they supposedly started with. This starts with the assumption, the Russians had 1300 or so with 130 BTG. The confirmation of the T-62s in use supports the heavy losses. Those are quite old tanks and require larger crews to operate (4 vs 3). The Russians have also lost over 28% of their IFVs, APCs, etc. The total numbers of IFVs, etc. lost now exceed the tanks, but tanks were a lower total numbers by a significant amount.

The Russians have lost the total equipment equivalent of 36, almost 37, BTG and an additional 12 (and change) tank battalions. In raw numbers, the Russians have lost the equivalent of about 48 BTG (BTG >> tank battalion), That would be 37% of the total force they started with.

Extrapolation of Russian troops losses based on that equipment is over 7,700 dead and over 31,000 total casualties. As always, this does not count logistics, artillery or poor bloody infantry. Infantry losses are going to be significantly higher.

We do know the Russians have reinforced: Chechens, Wagner, Far East, Ossetia, etc. have all sent more BTG. Last semi (stress semi) reliable statement was there were a total of 110 Russian BTG operating in Ukraine, mostly in the Donbas. If this is accurate, the losses mean the Russians have reinforced with an additional 28 BTG worth of troops (more or less 22k to 28k troops).

As always, since I am going to get someone who balks, this does not include the Ukrainian losses. However, if Zelensky's statment is accurate - losing up to 100 soldiers per day - then the Ukrainians have lost at least 10,000 soldiers, probably just as KIA (IMO), and - IF ACCURATE - would suggest over 40,000 total casualties. That number I can believe. It probably is a bit low, tbh, if I were to say

All of these are guessimates! This better than a guess, since there are some sources of data to support it, but the accuracy of the data is, at best suspect. However, I would not call these numbers accurate estimates.

The war is 102 days old now. More than 14 weeks! None of us would have thought this would have gone on this long (except perhaps James). The war is nowhere close to over. Unless there is a spectacular and rapid collapse or regime change by one side or another, this war will go on for a long time.

As I have implored in the past, don't just accept data supporting your POV. It is really hard not to. No one from either side has any motivation to share the truth of their situation. Getting stuck in an echo chamber is a very real problem with the algorithmic curation of data these days. We can be better than that.

Regardless of whom you are rooting for, be safe, be healthy and may Fortuna always smile upon you.

Strangelove said:

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“They have adopted this technique, which is a World War I technique fundamentally, of using artillery to just obliterate everything in front of them and then crawl over the rubble,” said Frederick W. Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute.

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Seems Vietnam traumatized americans so much they completely forgot that war and their own tactics during it.

Also, Dnipro-1 is one of the battalions accused of war crimes by Amnesty International a few years ago and also has neo-nazi origins but were smarter about the branding, not surprising american media would whitewash them.