The War in the Ukraine

Proton said:

You're simply assuming that Ukrainian powerplants would be more or less unassailable if Ukraine had bigger interceptor stocks, thus Ukrainian power plants being hit proves that Ukraine is running very low on interceptors.

If we don't assume that Ukrainian powerplants are more or less unassailable if Ukraine had a bigger interceptor stock, then a Ukrainian power plant being hit proves nothing.

In reality we mostly have no way of verifying either sides claim of missile interceptions, as the information vacuum is almost total with few examples of open information like when major power plants gets hit or stray videos of explosions are released.

What narratives military experts push are fairly irrelevant, they play their part in the war propaganda. Focusing on fundamental aspects like troop concentration has proved far more useful than listening to military experts simply ignoring such things; remember how the narrative of Ukrainian offensive genius quickly faded when Russia decided to mobilize equivalent numbers, thus preventing Ukraine from establishing massive local superiority?

Generally speaking there is no data at all on interceptor deliveries, making any assumption based on such incomplete knowledge is absurd. Only thing we get is the war propaganda from Kiev being parroted by loyal journalists and experts. And we know Kiev's war propaganda is aimed at maximizing foreign support in its struggle against Moscow , thus the general narrative will always be: Patriots/IRIS, etc works great, but we need more.

Which brings us back to the core question: Are Ukrainian Power plants now being destroyed because Ukraine is running out of interceptors or because Russia is now targeting Ukrainian power plants? A related question is: Has Russia previously been targeting Ukrainian power plants but failed due to interceptions?

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It could also be a shortage of platform. The city defending ones are dragged to front.

these two information confirmed even last year .. tools and semiconductors

in 2023 about 90% of Russia’s semiconductor came from China..

Nearly 70% of Russia’s approximately $900 million in machine tool imports in the last quarter of 2023 came from China.


this one is interesting if true .. but i have doubt on this .

''China has been providing Russia with UAV engines and turbojet engines for cruise missiles.''

You can expect Russia to ramp up production of its own machine tools. The Russian government did a major reorganization of their tool industry and the results are already showing up.

It is likely that Russia is still importing small electric and piston engines for UAVs from China. But turbojet engines for cruise missiles? Highly unlikely. Russia doesn't even use turbojets in cruise missiles anymore. They are all turbofan engines.

China is exporting dual use goods, and more, to Ukraine and the West as well. One good example is those uniforms being sent to Ukraine from China that the Russians seized being transported on their rail network not that long ago.

More daily dose of destruction continues. The activity has intensifies greatly compared to last year.

We are seeing way more Krasnopol usage since last year even though Krasnopols were one of the weapons that help greatly blunt the Ukrainian summer counteroffensive last year. In a way, the Orlan-Krasnopol (+Kitolov+Smelchak) combination has become the second Lancet.

A Ukrainian Strela-10 gets knocked out by a Krasnopol.


Destroyed Ukrainian gun truck Zil-131 with a Zu-23-2 mounted. Ukrainian footage.


Su-34 with X-38ML missiles knocks out a road bridge in Zaporyzhye vital to the logistics of the AFU. These weapons are laser guided but I don't think they were guided by a pod on the Su-34. Rather, an Orlan lases the target like a Krasnopol shot, allowing the Su-34 to launch and leave. Same technique might be used with laser guided KAB bombs.


Another LMUR hit on a house in Malinovka where Ukrainian soldiers are hiding. In these cases, the soldiers were tracked by drone prior to allowing the air strike. Such shelters are also often used by drone operators, making them priority targets. I would think by now, taking out a UAV crew has higher priority than taking out a tank or artillery system.


Lancet takes out another Ukrainian tank somewhere in South Donetsk.


The VKS bomb a Ukrainian temporary base somewhere in the Donetsk.


Russian Grads hit Ukrainian positions and equipment near the border.


TOS hits Ukrainian positions in Urozhayne.


TOS hits Ukrainian positions near Spirne. Several front gradually heating up.


RBK-500 cluster bombs dropped on Ukrainian positions near Robotyne.


ZALA promotional video showing compilation of the havoc ZALA drones and Lancets have caused. I suspect ZALA using target identification and GPS geolocation algorithms, then relay the coordinates to artillery and air borne units in the field. On top of Tornado-G and -S units, I suspect that the newer version of Krasnopol, Krasnopol -M2 or -S has a GPS, that allows it for GPS mid guidance or in pure GPS mode. These suspicions and theories are to help explain what I'm seeing in the battlefield. It's not in the business of the Russians to reveal all their cards and capabilities in formal announcements so you need to dig into it and see how it is all possible. To say the least, the newest waves of ZALA drones like Supercam S350 and the Z-16, has had a tremendous effect in the battlefield including locating deep targets for air strike and FAB destruction.


Strike on the Motor Zich plant in Zaporyzhye. Allegedly this place is making engines and motors for UAVs and drones. I also think it's making spare parts for repairing damaged vehicles in the field.


Another Krasnopol shot on a Ukrainian hideout.

gelgoog said:

Do you have any idea of how much power a country with 30 million people uses?

Even huge interconnectors between industrial countries in Europe aren't large enough to cope with a task like this. The HVDC link between France and the UK has only like 2000 MW capacity. That is less power than a single one of the power plants the Russians destroyed this week in Ukraine. And this kind of electric infrastructure can also itself be attacked. It takes years and billions to build. But even if you built it the Russians can just destroy the power converter stations.

Ukraine would be better off doing the opposite of what you said. Distributing its energy grid. For example they could install rooftop solar.


Do not be ridiculous. The Russians destroyed the switching stations without any issue when they wanted to do it. They could have destroyed the power plants and bridges any time they wanted to. They didn't do it because back then they wanted to make reconstruction of Ukraine easier after the conflict ended. They seem to have given up on that.

This is clearly retaliation for the Ukrainians striking Russian oil refineries.

Remember that when the conflict started Putin even gave the troops explicit orders not to use mortars to reduce collateral damage. That is how naive they started this conflict out as. But as things progress further the Russians will just keep turning the screws on Ukraine more. Russia has the capability to ramp up the conflict as much as they want to including turning the whole country of Ukraine into a glass parking lot.

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So when do the gloves actually come off?

What are they waiting for now?

I think they have their best window in next few months until NATO expanded production, inventory and supply ramp ups in 2025.

phrozenflame said:

So when do the gloves actually come off?
What are they waiting for now?
I think they have their best window in next few months until NATO expanded production, inventory and supply ramp ups in 2025.

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The US is increasing its artillery shell production. And probably a lot of other consumables. At the same time Russia is basically tripling the floorspace used to make Lancet drones. It is like I said, the production of Russia is a moving target. So I don't know why the US assumes it will overtake Russia at some point. Especially with its limited effort to ramp up production.

Russia in the first year when the war started moved production of weapons systems to three shifts. In the second year they started building new factory shells and equipping them. In the third year they are automating production.

gelgoog said:

The US is increasing its artillery shell production. And probably a lot of other consumables. At the same time Russia is basically tripling the floorspace used to make Lancet drones. It is like I said, the production of Russia is a moving target. So I don't know why the US assumes it will overtake Russia at some point. Especially with its limited effort to ramp up production.

Russia in the first year when the war started moved production of weapons systems to three shifts. In the second year they started building new factory shells and equipping them. In the third year they are automating production

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Indeed, but it's not just US alone, it's also US and their sphere. It's a moving target for them as well as Russia.

My point is that the greatest gap between the two moving targets probably would be now and perhaps some parts of 2025. Before the gap Kay start decreasing or it reaches a threshold where Ukraine can hold the line.

I just think there is a strategic window if oppurtunity for Russia to capitalize on to maximize it's gains before things become more static in a year from now, unless they feel the Ukrainians are on a brink of total collapse, which tbh I don't think we are there yet.

phrozenflame said:

I think they have their best window in next few months until NATO expanded production, inventory and supply ramp ups in 2025.

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If NATO could meet 20% of its target for 2025, it'll be a miracle. The only thing the "service economies" that comprise NATO make is noise.

sunnymaxi said:

these two information confirmed even last year .. tools and semiconductors

in 2023 about 90% of Russia’s semiconductor came from China..

Nearly 70% of Russia’s approximately $900 million in machine tool imports in the last quarter of 2023 came from China.

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this one is interesting if true .. but i have doubt on this .

''China has been providing Russia with UAV engines and turbojet engines for cruise missiles.''

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A very important item that needs to be mentioned is nitrocellulose, a key ingredient in propellant charges: Russia’s imports from China have more than doubled in 2023. This was critical in sustaining Russia’s ammunition production.

EU defense industry too depends on China for imports of 70% of its cotton linters from which nitrocellulose is made. China accounted for 50% of the cotton linter exports in 2022, the US 25% and Spain 10%. Currently, they are still importing them from China, but at a much lower rate they would prefer. Rheinmetal has 3 years worth of stockpiles, but beyond that they will need to look for alternatives to ensure they are able to meet the EU’s production target of 1.4 million 155mm shells annually.

ZeEa5KPul said:

If NATO could meet 20% of its target for 2025, it'll be a miracle. The only thing the "service economies" that comprise NATO make is noise.

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Without a flourishing economy, steel and energy... what can they do ? Buying Russian oil from India and steel from China ? So political intervention is indeed the most they can do proficiently until the next election.