The War in the Ukraine

Red Diamond: Russia’s “Elastic Defense” Technique Slowed Ukraine’s Advance

A small analysis of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

ATP 7-100.1 Russian Tactics February 2024

A document showing Russian tactics employed after two years of war.

The Attritional Art of War: Lessons from the Russian War on Ukraine

@Proton @Zichan
Just to let you know:
The company DTEK claims that TPPs have been targeted in 170 attack opportunities since the start of the war.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, DTEK's thermal power plants have been attacked almost 170 times.

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gelgoog said:

Do you have any idea of how much power a country with 30 million people uses?

Even huge interconnectors between industrial countries in Europe aren't large enough to cope with a task like this. The HVDC link between France and the UK has only like 2000 MW capacity. That is less power than a single one of the power plants the Russians destroyed this week in Ukraine. And this kind of electric infrastructure can also itself be attacked. It takes years and billions to build. But even if you built it the Russians can just destroy the power converter stations.

Ukraine would be better off doing the opposite of what you said. Distributing its energy grid. For example they could install rooftop solar.


Do not be ridiculous. The Russians destroyed the switching stations without any issue when they wanted to do it. They could have destroyed the power plants and bridges any time they wanted to. They didn't do it because back then they wanted to make reconstruction of Ukraine easier after the conflict ended. They seem to have given up on that.

This is clearly retaliation for the Ukrainians striking Russian oil refineries.

Remember that when the conflict started Putin even gave the troops explicit orders not to use mortars to reduce collateral damage. That is how naive they started this conflict out as. But as things progress further the Russians will just keep turning the screws on Ukraine more. Russia has the capability to ramp up the conflict as much as they want to including turning the whole country of Ukraine into a glass parking lot.

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Destroy at any time is a hyperbole.

Russia has been targeting the Ukrainian power grid for a year and a half now, yet this spring Ukraine was exporting electricity to the EU thanks to a combination of usage reduction and a surge in renewable energy capacity. Russia is not the US, they may be a great power but there is a very wide gap in capabilities, especially when it comes to air force. In the Gulf War, it took the US 72h to destroy >97% of Iraqi power generating capacity, most of which was permanently destroyed with explosive warhead strikes on power plants. Now, that’s shock and awe executed right.

Every report I can find states that Russia has been stockpiling missiles and the volleys it’s launching this year are significantly bigger compared to the first winter strategic bombing of Ukraine’s power grid. This is an important enabler in the overwhelming of Ukraine’s GBAD. The other is the ongoing attrition war that overtime degraded their ability to defend themselves. Russia is firing the same missiles it has in 2022, just in larger numbers. Perhaps the one important improvement observed in successful attacks is the firing of a higher proportion of ballistic missiles which are inherently more difficult to intercept. It seems that only one Patriot battalion is capable of intercepting the high-end ballistic missiles?

Western analysts like M. Koffman have warned that something like this is likely to happen and that 2024 is Russia’s year of opportunity before the combined West catches up and surpasses them in ammunition production and particularly in missile manufacturing. LM alone produced 500 anti-ballistic capable MSE Patriot missiles in 2023 and continues to ramp up. Raytheon is currently producing 1200 AMRAAMs annually (also for NASAMS) and 240 GEM-T missiles for the Patriot. Germany’s Diehl Defense expects to produce between 400-500 IRIS-T missiles in 2024.

“During his interview, Skibitskyi said Russia is currently making around 115 to 130 missiles with a range of at least 350 kilometers each month, along with 100 to 115 shorter-range missiles.” Link: .

Source:

Hi,
I don’t understand why we try to do Iraqi vs Ukrainian war, Iraqi war was like almost
every nation behind USA even Russian didn’t blink on it though they might have not helped USA
in Ukrainian war most of the sophisticated weapon of USA & west is almost in field against
Russians from the day one almost
let me rephrase it again during Afghanistan invasion by USSR, if we go by the history the first stinger
missile arrived in Afghanistan after 1983/84 though Russians been there since approximately 1979/78
non of the other country were giving any signal intelligence to Iraq or no awacs no long range SAMs
with all the intelligence and other gadgets
another thing which come to mind if it’s been a while Amy be Russians also want to wind up this on going scenario ASAP to some extent
thank you

Zichan said:

Russia has been targeting the Ukrainian power grid for a year and a half now, yet this spring Ukraine was exporting electricity to the EU thanks to a combination of usage reduction and a surge in renewable energy capacity. Russia is not the US, they may be a great power but there is a very wide gap in capabilities, especially when it comes to air force. In the Gulf War, it took the US 72h to destroy >97% of Iraqi power generating capacity, most of which was permanently destroyed with explosive warhead strikes on power plants. Now, that’s shock and awe executed right.

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I told you that Putin initially didn't even allow the Russian army to use mortars because of collateral damage. Don't you get it that the Russians didn't want to destroy Ukraine's power infrastructure when the war started? It isn't because of a lack of capability.

Zichan said:

Every report I can find states that Russia has been stockpiling missiles and the volleys it’s launching this year are significantly bigger compared to the first winter strategic bombing of Ukraine’s power grid. This is an important enabler in the overwhelming of Ukraine’s GBAD. The other is the ongoing attrition war that overtime degraded their ability to defend themselves. Russia is firing the same missiles it has in 2022, just in larger numbers.

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Not true. Russia's strike options are increasing. In 2024 Russia has the UMPK glide bombs which can strike targets dozens of kilometers from the front. The Kh-32 also entered service. Same thing with the Kh-69. Or the air launched Kh-101 cruise missiles with larger explosive warhead. Then there's the Zircon.

Zichan said:

Perhaps the one important improvement observed in successful attacks is the firing of a higher proportion of ballistic missiles which are inherently more difficult to intercept. It seems that only one Patriot battalion is capable of intercepting the high-end ballistic missiles?

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You are basically contradicting yourself here. Your claim is that Russia didn't destroy the generators because they couldn't do it. But Russia already had Iskander and Kinzhal when the conflict started. They could have used those to destroy the actual power generators instead of targeting the station transformers sooner. They only didn't do this because of orders from above to mitigate damage.

Zichan said:

Western analysts like M. Koffman have warned that something like this is likely to happen and that 2024 is Russia’s year of opportunity before the combined West catches up and surpasses them in ammunition production and particularly in missile manufacturing.

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He's an idiot. Russia has been building whole new weapons factories. And I wouldn't be surprised if Iran and North Korea were doing the same. The West is chasing a moving target. The EU is currently complaining about China stopping cotton exports which means they can't produce enough explosives. At the same time Russia already started production of explosives with alternate materials to make nitrocellulose. And they started making more energy dense explosives as well.

Zichan said:

LM alone produced 500 anti-ballistic capable MSE Patriot missiles in 2023 and continues to ramp up. Raytheon is currently producing 1200 AMRAAMs annually (also for NASAMS) and 240 GEM-T missiles for the Patriot. Germany’s Diehl Defense expects to produce between 400-500 IRIS-T missiles in 2024.

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If Israel gets into a scrap with Iran the US will have to divert Patriot missiles there as well. Russia has doubled the floorspace at Almaz-Antey, their company which makes air defense systems, just last year. So the gap in air defense between Russia and Ukraine will likely increase and not the opposite.

Zichan said:

“During his interview, Skibitskyi said Russia is currently making around 115 to 130 missiles with a range of at least 350 kilometers each month, along with 100 to 115 shorter-range missiles.” Link: Russian Munitions Production Higher But Still Insufficient.

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He's just guessing. Only the Russians know the actual numbers. And Russia also has the Geran-2. That factory is still ramping up.
The Minister of Industry and Trade of Russia recently announced they are going to build a new factory for Salyut to make jet engines. The Russian MIC keeps growing.

The US cannot even fix the bridge that collapsed in Baltimore after that container ship crashed into it. How long did it take for Russia to fix the much larger Crimean Bridge after it was attacked? The Russians started building new modules right after it was damaged.

The West just doesn't know how to make infrastructure anymore.

Russia could also further increase military spending. I think they are currently at 3.9% of GDP. The US during the Vietnam War was spending like 10% of GDP on the military. 15% in the Korean War.

Another thing. Russia recently announced that Sarmat with Avangard also comes with a conventional warhead version. So I wouldn't discount that being used either. Those Avangard are basically 2 ton vehicles travelling at Mach 25.

The sound of Geran drones arriving in Krivoy Rog.


AS-90 SPG gets taken out by Lancet.


Ukrainian temporary deployment point in the ruins of Karlovsky dam gets hit by laser guided 240mm Smelchak round fired from a 2S4 Tyulpan. Like Krasnopols, the lasing is done by an Orlan or by a ground unit.


Krasnopol takes out 2S1 Gvozdika SPG.


Drone from the 200th drops bomb into a building, which turned out to be an ammo depot. The resulting explosion also took out the drone but it was worth it.


Lancet hits hidden Ukrainian artillery unit.


New batch of Su-35S received by the VKS.


Ukrainian BMP hits a mine.


Ukrainian temporary base gets hit by artillery in the Krasnoliman front.


LMUR hits a Ukrainian hideout in Malinovka. For some reason, this settlement is being used for LMUR strikes.


FAB hits a Ukrainian warehouse and storage in Staromayorsky.


FABs hit a Ukrainian UAV control center.


ATGM takes out a repeater station used by Ukrainian FPV drones.


Lancet takes out a Ukrainian bulldozer in Stupochky. Bulldozer used for building fortifications.


Ukrainian temporary deployment point gets bombarded by the Russians near the border.


Ukrainian training center near Odessa hit by Iskander.


Ukrainian attempts to build fortifications near the Russian border gets shelled.


Work of the 200th Guards Brigade of the Northern Fleet near Chasiv Yar, taking out Ukrainian vehicles. One observation is that Lancets of late appear to have more explosive power or their penetration warhead is able to more successfully set off the ammunition of target vehicles.


American militiaman, who arrived in the Donetsk in 2014 and fought as a member of DPR militia Vostok Battalion, has been reported missing. Foul play suspected.


Russian troops have broken into Urozhayne.


ODAB-1500s land on Ukrainian positions in Krasnogorovka. This looks more like an artillery bombardment to me and the ODAB-1500 label below the video is a mistake.


British trained commando landing gets fouled by Russian strikes. Leader is captured. This is highly edited from the original Russian footage.

Putin claimed that the strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure were retaliation for Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries.

Lukashenko is interesting, he's talking about with who Putin can sign a peace threaty:

Zichan said:

Having said that, Western military analysts have warned in the beginning of the year that Russia will have an opportunity this year to overwhelm Ukraine’s GBAD precisely due to an interceptor gap. However, the same people claimed that production rates for interceptors are ramping up and will surpass Russia’s missile production within a year.

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Mmm, the specific timing for when Ukraine would start running out of missiles was really due to the Discord leak of Pentagon files. It wasn't as much of a talking point beforehand, although yes, there were always people who were arguing for more SAMs to be supplier to Ukraine. Especially Western SAMs. However, before the leak, this seemed to stem from the desire to switch Ukraine to NATO standards sooner rather than later, as well as an unrealistic desire to make Russian missile power irrelevant, rather than the realization that Ukraine's stockpile was quickly running out.

gelgoog said:

Do you have any idea of how much power a country with 30 million people uses?

Even huge interconnectors between industrial countries in Europe aren't large enough to cope with a task like this. The HVDC link between France and the UK has only like 2000 MW capacity. That is less power than a single one of the power plants the Russians destroyed this week in Ukraine. And this kind of electric infrastructure can also itself be attacked. It takes years and billions to build. But even if you built it the Russians can just destroy the power converter stations.

Ukraine would be better off doing the opposite of what you said. Distributing its energy grid. For example they could install rooftop solar.

Click to expand...

You're not wrong, but at the same time, people will ration and will reduce power consumption as they get used to the new "standard of living". Additionally, services can be continually cut and continually tolerated by a population that knows it's at war.

The bigger issue IMO isn't really that Ukraine will "run out of power", but rather the potential for an increase in collaborators and "human shields" leaving frontline cities/territories. This will cause problems later on as Ukraine will be forced to mobilize more and more people/resources from major population centres and W. Ukraine en masse.

Atomicfrog said:

Lukashenko is interesting, he's talking about with who Putin can sign a peace threaty:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1778783407838732765

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Yes, Lukashenko babbles something inane every now and then to grab attention. The greaty difficulty of tracking Lukashenko/Belarus developments is knowing when to take him seriously and when not to take him seriously.

HighGround said:

You're not wrong, but at the same time, people will ration and will reduce power consumption as they get used to the new "standard of living". Additionally, services can be continually cut and continually tolerated by a population that knows it's at war.

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There is already energy rationing in Kiev, between 7 pm and midnight.