The War in the Ukraine

SolarWarden said:

Black Sea fleet Chief sacked and did not resign like some think

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1766899288230044126

I guess when you lose a third of the fleet to a nation with no navy you're likely not going to keep your position.

I feel sorry for the next guy why would any Russian admiral want to accept the position of Chief of black sea fleet.

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These pro-Ukrainian sources keep confabulating their stories. They replaced the former Black Sea Fleet commander. Not the head of the Navy. Thus far there is no confirmation of this.

Could be the first video of a jet powered Geran 2. Hard to tell with the ambient noise but no signs of the moped sound

tankphobia said:

There's not much Russia can do about suicidal jetskies using Western ISR short of starting WW3. This is one of the few areas where Ukraine can inflict significant damage at low cost to itself.

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Install proper RWS, almost 1.5 years after the war has begun? Establish some proper air patrolling, especially when Ukraine can't even intercept a damn Wright flyer around the area where drones tend to attack? Maybe at least setup weapon stations and get some IR sights to the marines onboard?

20-30 knot swarming torpedo boats (without torpedoes at that) aren't exactly a magic threat, just 150 years fresh.

For everything that's said and for all the added layers to the picture, there is a rather clear organizational friction(mild word) to do anything.
BSF is just too cool to react & adapt to 'junk boats' before sinkings (and isn't exactly fast even after them).

RBK-500 cluster bomb hit on Ukrainian positions in Rublenoe, Kharkhiv region.


NASAMS hit by Lancet.


TOS hit on Ukrainian positions.


Two FAB with UMPK hits on Ukrainian positions and equipment in Podmiddle, Kharkhiv region.


Ukrainian drone team and UAV hit by Krasnopol by the 238th Artillery.


Ukrainian transports hit by artillery from the 691st.


Caught in video. Shoot down of Ukrainian MiG-29 by their own air defenses.


Only seven of the 14 Challenger 2 tanks remain actively operational, 5 broke down by technical reasons. More a liability than an asset.


FAB-1500 hit on a Ukrainian staging area in Orekhiv.


Fire breaks out as a fuel tank in Kursk was hit by a Ukrainian drone.


Another base of Ukrainian UAV operators hit by a precise strike near the Russian border.


Ukrainian D-30 howitzer hit by counterbattery.


Ukrainian positions in Tonenke gets hit by TOS.


Full package of TOS released on Ukrainian positions in Rabotino.


Another Ukrainian tank gets hit by Lancet in the Artemovosk front.


Ukrainian pickup with ZU-23 gets hit by Lancet.


Two trophy YPR-765 from Avdeyevka.


British fishing boats no longer allowed to fish in the Russian zone of the Barents Sea.


FPV drone hits abandoned Bradley.


Analysis of the latest Geran hits in Odessa. Three drones managed to strike the barracks of the National Guard. There are also hits on the training center for combat swimmers of the MTR. I suspect these are jet powered Gerans used here. I also suspect jet powered Gerans were used on the Airport Hotel strike mentioned in my previous post.

siegecrossbow said:

View attachment 126530

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At least this one is in training and demonstration environment. apparently there was also British Journalist from The Sun there.

tankphobia said:

There's not much Russia can do about suicidal jetskies using Western ISR short of starting WW3. This is one of the few areas where Ukraine can inflict significant damage at low cost to itself.

Click to expand...

Gloire_bb said:

Install proper RWS, almost 1.5 years after the war has begun? Establish some proper air patrolling, especially when Ukraine can't even intercept a damn Wright flyer around the area where drones tend to attack? Maybe at least setup weapon stations and get some IR sights to the marines onboard?

20-30 knot swarming torpedo boats (without torpedoes at that) aren't exactly a magic threat, just 150 years fresh.

For everything that's said and for all the added layers to the picture, there is a rather clear organizational friction(mild word) to do anything.
BSF is just too cool to react & adapt to 'junk boats' before sinkings (and isn't exactly fast even after them).

Click to expand...

I think you guys are not giving the Russians enough credit.

While it’s true that the Russians in general in this war, and the BSF in particular is behaving like a meme far too often than it should, they are not actually Hollywood caricatures of the soviet times uncaring unadaptable fossils people love to think of them as. If they were, there would have been far more ships lost.

I think there is a good explanation for both why the BSF has not lost any ships for a while before, and why it is suddenly loosing ships now. That is to do with the confirmed downing of one A50 and claimed loss of another, both around the Sea of Azov. One of the main missions for those A50s are likely to have been to provide early warning of incoming USV and cruise missile attacks against Crimea and Russia. Which is likely a key reason as to how the Russians were able to repel such attacks successfully before.

With the loss of one to two airframes, that might have left openings and gaps in Russian coverage, which NATO were able to detect and instructed Ukraine to exploit (hell, with things like USVs, is not outside the realm of possibility that the Ukrainians are not even in the loop on their deployment and use, future cutting down the kill chain and possible points of failure, but that’s a separate point).

To me, it’s actually interesting that the Ukrainians have not launched another cruise missile attack against Crimea yet, as I would have expected them to have had a crack by now to try and take maximum advantage of the situation. Maybe NATO has deemed VKS fighter patrols to be sufficient to detect and defeat such an attack and thus not worth trying, or the Ukrainian air force’s cruise missiles and/or cruise missile launching capabilities are basically gone at this point pending replenishment with F16s.

But back to the point, shooting at USVs with naval close in guns is a failure even if you sink them because such things shouldn’t get within 20/30mm range of your warships. The best way to countering them is long range detection and aviation. Putting RWS on small ships to counter USVs is a bad investment due to the costs being high, as well as the effectiveness being low, such small ships are inherently unstable firing platforms and any kind of sea state will make accurate gunnery a joke.

The Russians appear to be looking for solutions to the Ukrainian surface drone problem:

and this:

Another HIMARS attacked by the Iskander system is claimed. To be honest, this could be a decoy.

Another HIMARS gets Iskandered. The missile explodes in mid air spreading a cloud of tungsten balls to the ground.


There's a possibility that the HIMARS was a decoy, however the decoys are said to not have this detail. In favor that this is real, a man is spotted right next to the machine, and manipulating things on it.


Ukrainian drone attacked administration building of Belgorod.


RBK-500 cluster munitions being used.


Russian MoD confirms crash of IL-76. There are, sorry, were, 12 onboard the plane. Flaming engine points to possible bird strike.


An SUV used by the AFU gets attacked by an FPV drone from the Beaver detachment.


Looks like Krasnopol hits on a Ukrainian howitzer and P-18 Malakhit radar in the Sumy Kharkhiv region.


Ukrainian T-72 gets hit by Lancet in the Donetsk direction.


Another Ukrainian boat in the Dniepr gets drone bombed, denying it's further use.


Maxxpro located in Kherson gets drone bombed.


Lancet takes out another M109 in Kherson region.


Russian UAV discovers Ukrainian radar site, transfers coordinates to command post, and delivers a Krasnopol to the site.


FABs hitting in the Kakhovsky district in Kherson.


More bombs in the right side of the Dniepr.


Ukrainian D-20 howitzer knocked out by Krasnopol from a MSTA-B of the 238th Artillery Brigade.


Ukrainian tank hit by Lancet in Chasiv Yar.


BMP-3 firing it's 30mm on Ukrainian stronghold.


Ukrainian D-30 howitzer hit by artillery from the 138th Brigade in the Kupyansk direction.


Base of Ukrainian drone operators hit by Krasnopol near the Russian border.


MLRS arrives at Ukrainian positions in the Sumy region.


Reconnaissance UAV of the 238th Kuban Artillery Brigade discovers a vehicle used by a Ukrainian UAV team along with a UAV, and promptly sends a Krasnopol to the location.


MiG-29 allegedly shot down by Su-35 with an R-37 missile. Others alleged the shootdown was friendly fire.


M109 previously destroyed by Lancet gets posted in TikTok.


Successful Russian assault in Georgievka where there is a confirmed breakthrough. Despite heavy fire the Russian tank took an ATGM hit on the front like a boss and loosed it's cannon fire on Ukrainian defenses.


Not shown due to fatal footage. Fire from a 152mm Hyacinth-B of the VDV scores a direct hit on a Ukrainian landing boat loaded with marines. I just wonder why the AFU continues to do this.