The War in the Ukraine

Sinnavuuty said:

Russia may even win this war, but in reality it has already lost if it goes against NATO. The USA, after 2 years of carrying out daily flights of all types of reconnaissance and surveillance aircraft without harassment, they know exactly how each Russian IADS system works, this was Russia's greatest gift to NATO, because the dense IADS network was a big unknown for NATO, after all this time, it turned out that they greatly overestimated the Russian air defense network.

I think that after so many red lines have been crossed during the last two years that the West is sure that the Russians can be provoked by gradual escalations that allow NATO to be inserted more and more into the conflict and that is why there is speculation about sending troops, F -35 flying in Ukraine simulating SEAD and planning attacks against the Crimean bridge, because they know that the Kremlin dwarf will not respond proportionately, imposing more and more red lines to be crossed in later time.

In fact, if China is learning from the war, it is that unfulfilled empty threats become a powerful tool for the West to escalate more and more, but I believe that the Chinese have already had proof of this in practice during Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

Click to expand...

Bro, Wagner was in Frances backyard and France even had the backing of ECOWAS, the results where the French went home which is why no one here took Macron seriously about trying to push their troops to Ukraine. The thing is do you even know if they had their main radars turned on with just the passive sensors tracking and collecting data from their aircrafts? the only drone the U.S. had that I was aware of was the only one flying around at sea. Even the latest 4th gen aircrafts from Israel get shot down by long range S-200 systems from the 60s. We have yet to find out how western 4th gen and 5th gens can deal with s-300s and s-400s if Russia is given the greenlight to target them or start using missiles to target runways since Europe doesn't have magical forcefields yet to cover runways from missiles.

They can locate SAM sites with satellites, the only reason news articles are making stories of F-35s is to shill them rather than use them for combat like the only air to air kills for the F-22s was balloons. NATO has yet to target the bridge personally themselves other than using the Ukrainians, we will cross that bridge eventually if it comes to it. Its not like their SAM sites can't collect data from aircrafts flying in the air either.

also, it is quite ironic that the statement of the F-35s in Ukraine came out today from Singapore, considering they made the purchase few days ago of the aircrafts, maybe they are using Ukraine to justify why they purchased it.

blackjack21 said:

My eyes will roll to the back of my head that after Russia wins the war, we will be hearing how Russia is so lucky F-22s, F-35s, m1a2sepv4s or THAADS wasn't used.

Click to expand...

Winning? What does "winning" look like to Russia? Or what does "winning" look to you? The outcome I mean.

blackjack21 said:

complete denazification of Ukraine.

Click to expand...

Yikes. Reality is going to be a rude awakening. Russians started the mechanize armored assault at Avdiivka early Oct of 2023 and just recently "won" the city center taking the Russians more than 4 months to take a few miles at a cost of over a division of men and armored vehicles and that is just one of a handful of heavily defended lines. Russian assault of Vuhledar is still going on, not like 2023, but that battle, the main battle, has cost Russia almost a division worth of men and armored vehicles yet somehow you expect Russia to annex all of Ukraine?

Have you not been paying attention what is happening right now to Russian armored assaults? They are getting stopped and that is putting it mildly. Maybe you're not aware because it is forbidden to post such videos in here but right now Russian assaults are getting hammered. A few days ago one Bradley took out a whole Russian platoon including their armored vehicles and there's video of it. I don't see any Russian breakthrough of the lines like Ukraine did at Kharkiv and Kherson those days are long gone for both sides. Where are the Russians going to get the men to take all of Ukraine?

Wait... are you messing around and I fell for it? Dude come on that's not funny.

SolarWarden said:

Yikes. Reality is going to be a rude awakening. Russians started the mechanize armored assault at Avdiivka early Oct of 2023 and just recently "won" the city center taking the Russians more than 4 months to take a few miles at a cost of over a division of men and armored vehicles and that is just one of a handful of heavily defended lines. Russian assault of Vuhledar is still going on, not like 2023, but that battle, the main battle, has cost Russia almost a division worth of men and armored vehicles yet somehow you expect Russia to annex all of Ukraine?

Click to expand...

they were bombarding that place with FABs and felt like it was only recently that they have started to use those bombs more than the early stage of war. The loss rate is not what you think it is if they are taking their time to reduce casualties because you must be well aware by now yourself about 14 su-34s shot down and the only visual evidence they had was like burning grass, over 5000 tanks and somehow claiming 30k Ukrainians which if this was true there would not be a manpower shortage in that country.

SolarWarden said:

Have you not been paying attention what is happening right now to Russian armored assaults? They are getting stopped and that is putting it mildly. Maybe you're not aware because it is forbidden to post such videos in here but right now Russian assaults are getting hammered. A few days ago one Bradley took out a whole Russian platoon including their armored vehicles and there's video of it. I don't see any Russian breakthrough of the lines like Ukraine did at Kharkiv and Kherson those days are long gone for both sides. Where are the Russians going to get the men to take all of Ukraine?

Click to expand...

Are you actually watching the same news updates I am or are you considering that Ukrainian troops are "Advancing backwards" and Russia is, "retreating forwards? The videos are not forbidden reason you dont post them is because you dont have evidence. If you did have evidence you would be a dedicated poster like Tam who actually provides evidence on what got destroyed and what didn't. Is that Bradley like the only evidence you have that Russia is losing badly or you choose to actively ignore Tam's posts here?

SolarWarden said:

Wait... are you messing around and I fell for it? Dude come on that's not funny.

Click to expand...

why would I joke around that is zelensky past occupation before he became president of ukraine. lost armour and Tam's posts suggest the most losses that have happened to Ukraine were from krasnopol shells and lancet drone strikes. and they have just started mass production now with Scalpel drones.
it will just keep getting worse from here. I dont even bother anymore on watching news about what Ukraine receives anymore because it all gets destroyed and currently there is a halt on some military equipment being sent to them.

Sinnavuuty said:

Russia may even win this war, but in reality it has already lost if it goes against NATO.

I think that after so many red lines have been crossed during the last two years that the West is sure that the Russians can be provoked by gradual escalations that allow NATO to be inserted more and more into the conflict and that is why there is speculation about sending troops, F -35 flying in Ukraine simulating SEAD and planning attacks against the Crimean bridge, because they know that the Kremlin dwarf will not respond proportionately, imposing more and more red lines to be crossed in later time.

Click to expand...

Putin on the Tucker Carlson interview said that they are trying to avoid conflict with NATO. (WW3)

On the Political front, the "Ukraine" bubble has popped months ago and is on the decline with interest in the war waning in the West since the defeat of the counteroffensive. It has declined dramatically in interest on social media, and even the western think tanks are not producing as much content. I see youtube Ukraine war content creators now struggling to grow as they did in 2022-2023.

It is also notable how western mainstream media responded to the taking of Adiivka- They have pumped up a wave of panicky articles about 'running out of men, ammo, money" to sustain Ukraine combined with some damage control.

But it isn't 2022 anymore. So far there isn't much media traction yet now that the Russian attack is stalled on the 2nd defense line.

So the pulse of war politics/PR and aid from the West is tracking the only thing they understand: "so-called territorial changes" on the ground. If the Russians make massive advances we can expect a far greater response from NATO. If they appear to be "stalled" in a "frozen conflict" the West will be much more passive towards supporting Ukraine.

I suspect that the Russian military is using this passivity and time to their own advantage.

Gloire_bb said:

DPRK is country with much of its production&life still stuck in the 1950s - even food security is still not completely solved.

Click to expand...

This is sort of deflection from you since focus is on military section of DPRK and not overall for which even then is inaccurate in way you generalize them.

DPRK over a ago was suspected of being effectively able to produce domestically complex/advanced machinery thus negating impact of sanctions.

Gloire_bb said:

Yes, Chinese equipment is available to them in principle(so is western, if there are sufficient intermediates) - but it isn't like they have money to do it.

Click to expand...

Chinese equipment is not available to them regardless of financial situation and is similar situation to western hardware and was with Russian until very recently.
Similar during Cold War era where neither Soviets nor Chinese were willing to export ballistic missiles to North Korea, let alone licensed production of such.
Hence R-17 / SCUD-B imported from Egypt in late 1970's and 9K79 from Syria in early 1990's along T-72A / T-72M1 from Iran that captured it from Iraq in 1980's.

Thus in process weapon systems that were reverse engineered and produced in entirety or with some components of interest being manufactured for other arms.

Gloire_bb said:

Even their MIC - yes, DPRK can do a lot of genuine stuff. They never had neither resources nor the capacity to push forward actual research for military-related sciences etc. Russia has all that and more.

Click to expand...

Gloire_bb said:

Overall, from Russia, they may need literally everything. And now they have all the resources they need to do the buying.

Click to expand...

Another Russian naval ship sunk in Crimea by drone.
Incredible a nation with no navy can sink so many warships especially a blue water navy nation.

Gloire_bb said:

Overall, from Russia, they may need literally everything.

Click to expand...

They absolutely do not need literally everything from Russia as they produce nearly all of what they need for their military aside from manned jet aircraft.

Gloire_bb said:

And now they have all the resources they need to do the buying.

Click to expand...

Too much hyperbole around it from many people including supposed experts.

SolarWarden said:

Another Russian naval ship sunk in Crimea by drone.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1764902641304223893

Incredible a nation with no navy can sink so many warships especially a blue water navy nation.

Click to expand...

Honestly Russia cannot afford its surface navy. Better to scrap them after the war. No point to keep the hardware yet no money to utilize it meaningfully. Keeping the asw and subs is enough. Maybe a few air defense frigates on high end. Rest can go.