The War in the Ukraine

plawolf said:

While I think there is an element of China trying to get the Russians to get their act together, there are also broader strategic considerations that is probably far more pivotal in China’s decision to withhold lethal support thus far.

The war has settled into an uneasy balance where NATO and Russia broadly know and stay within their own respective lanes. It is massively disadvantageous to Russia to have NATO ISR plugged into Ukrainian kill chains, but they don’t want to risk a war with NATO to change that balance. Massive lethal support from China might cause them to change their calculus and that could have unintended consequences.

Another reason I am somewhat dubious about these mysterious shell claims is the fact that Russia really isn’t short of shells with their NK and Iranian deals (or are those deals shell games to help explain the massive increase in Russian ammo supply?). Besides, won’t the Russian guns have the same issues as the Ukrainians did in firing high pressured Chinese rounds from soviet guns?

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Well, it isn't in China's commercial interest to stop doing trade with the West. Which is still their major trade partner. But it isn't in China's interest to see a hostile US aligned government in power in Russia either. That would directly threaten their northern border. So you can pretty much bet that China will give Russia all the economic support necessary. It's not like Russia will be getting it for free either since they can pay in natural resources. In case of the government of Russia being near collapse then I could see China stepping up with direct military assistance. But that likely won't happen in the first place, even with direct NATO intervention, because Russia has nukes.

As for the shells, I think Iran supplied the Russians with 100mm shells for the T-55 tanks, and 122mm artillery shells. The Iranians basically don't use 152mm artillery, they use 155mm artillery. It is North Korea which has huge stockpiles of 152mm artillery, so the Russians are getting it from there. North Korea also probably has a gargantuan amount of T-62 tank 115mm shells.

Tam said:

France suffers from an acute shortage of gunpowder to make missiles for Kiev.

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Even the US has been buying gunpowder from China.

Tam said:

JDAM hits Avdeyevka coke plant.

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Now we see Ukraine using more JDAMs. Their use will likely further increase once the F-16 is delivered. But because they can't fly at high altitude close to the front their range will be severely limited.

Tam said:

Failed X-35U missile in Krasnodar region. The antiship missile is now being used to strike ground targets, launched from aircraft with a range of up to 250km.

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The Su-34 can fire the Kh-35 missile.

I wonder if there will be a day I see a pro-ukraine user on here that would pull a Julian one day.

Temstar said:

I can't help but think these "North Korean" shells coming to light at this time reflects some sort of change. Both on weibo and myself I can see two possibilities:

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Personally I think that they are really North Korean shells, no Chinese.

North korea is a heavily industrialized country of 25 million people that dedicated 20% of their economy to military production.

If there is one country that can provide such number of shells is probably North Korea. Westerners like to promote the idea of China because:
1- They use it to propagandize against China
2 - The though of North Korea overmanufacturing the full EU is too painful for the pride of typical Europeans.

But the trade North Korea Russia seems totally logical since is very beneficial for both. North Korea get again petroleum, carbon, has access to missile and rocket technology and in general support with other things. Russia get access to very cheap industrial output that exceed the EU and US, forcing them into submission or big economical pain.

Strategically since the start of this trade the effects are, Russia smashing the front plane in Ukraine (not only due to this but this helps), North Korea launching its first succes spy satellit, and getting access to several technologies.
This Also make North Korea more powerful and dangerous, forcing the US to spend resources in south Korea that can’t go to Ukraine

Is a total win win for both Russia and North Korea, and indeed for China without participating.

It is important to notice that apparently the joint programs go further away than militar. Now some Russian regions are hiring north korean state companies to build infrastructur, instead of use immigrants from central Asia that create too much trouble and probkems. north Korea uses that money to buy petrol and other things from Russia. Both countries win.

PD: One advantage of the West was always that their economies are very integrated, and that bring down cost. Germany manufactures this, Netherlands that…But anti west economies were always divided and isolated.

Now with the free trade between Russia and Iran plus trade from Russia to North Korea they will create several synergies that will increase the power and economy of the 3 countries a lot.

Alleged Su-34 burning down.


The real source...


...A car's broken windshield.

Baba Yaga shot down.


UR-77 decides not just to clear mines but an entire Ukrainian position instead.


MSTA-S takes out a Ukrainian Gvozdika SPG at Novoselki.


FPV drone strike against Ukrainian tank.


Flag of the 114th Brigade is up in the school of Orlovka.


The 1st Guard Slavyansk Brigade raises it's flag in the center of Tonensky.


Lancet hits a Zu-23 installation.


Four FAB-250 with UMPK arrives at Ukrainian positions somewhere in South Donetsk.


Russians captured an AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel counter battery radar in Avdeyevka.


A battalion of the 38th Marine Brigade of the AFU is spotted and tracked to their temporary base. At least 30 personnel were counted. The location is subjected to a volley of Uragan MLRS.


FAB-500M62 arrive at Ukrainian positions in Novomikhailovka.


Couple of Suzana SPGs from Slovakia destroyed by Lancet attacks in Kherson.

Surprisingly Weak Ukrainian Defenses Help Russian Advance
March 2, 2024
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Sparse, rudimentary trench lines populate the area west of Avdiivka that Ukraine is trying to defend, according to a Times review of imagery by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite company. These trench lines lack many of the additional fortifications that could help slow Russian tanks and help defend major roads and important terrain.
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British military intelligence said on Thursday that Russian forces had advanced to about four miles from the center of Avdiivka in the past two weeks, a small but unusually rapid advance compared with previous offensive operations.
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The lack of robust Ukrainian entrenchments in the area is especially glaring when compared with the formidable Russian defenses that thwarted Kyiv’s advances last summer during the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which ultimately failed.
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“The quality of these defensive lines cannot be good enough to resist massive bulldozer tactics by the Russian forces,” Mr. Hrabskyi said.

Is Robotino under Russian control or still in Ukrainian?

TK3600 said:

Is Robotino under Russian control or still in Ukrainian?

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Last I heard it was in the grayzone basically. Ukrainian and Russian troops enter it occasionally, but most of the cover in there has been flattened, so it is hard to hold there.

Sinnavuuty said:

The Ukrainian Air Force reports that it shot down another Su-34 aircraft that attacked the front line with guided bombs.

Furthermore, during the night, 14 of the 17 Shahed drones were shot down.

In total, Ukraine claims to have shot down 14 aircraft since Feb/2024.
View attachment 126121

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The Ukrainian Air Force reports that it shot down another Su-34 aircraft that attacked the front line with guided bombs.

In total, Ukraine claims to have shot down 15 aircraft since Feb/2024.

Is this like Ukraine's claims of tanks destroyed where they claim to have destroyed more tanks than the Russians had in service?
"Ukraine Celebrates Russia Losing '5,000 Tanks' in War
Published Oct 20, 2023 at 9:09 AM EDT

Kyiv officials on Friday celebrated Russia losing more than 5,000 tanks since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

"5000+ Russian tanks were destroyed during the full-scale invasion. Ukrainian power is stronger than occupiers' steel!" Ukraine's Defense Ministry said Friday in a post on social media, published shortly after Kyiv's military released its daily update on Russian losses in the war.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on October 20 said its forces destroyed 55 tanks in a single day, bringing the total number of tank losses in the war to 5,047."

The Russians had less than 3,000 tanks in service total when the war started. So we are supposed to believe that Ukraine destroyed those, and that the Russians put into service another 2,000 tanks in less than two years for them to also destroy. Yeah. Right.

Michaelsinodef said:

Does Ukraine not have the money to buy plates from China?

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Don't know about all kind of plates, but high end one is certainly only made by state armoury for PLA and Police and these factories pick the buyers. Strictly speaking no body armour should be exported without the government's approval.