The War in the Ukraine

Tam said:

Bundeswehr high ranking officers got wiretapped and Russians published the conversation on social media. The German officers discuss about sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine and how they can take down the Crimean Bridge. One officer said it would only make a dent, not ten, not even 20 missiles.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

According to Bild, the conversation is genuine as the German government now attempts to block and close social media.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Click to expand...

Seems legit to me，Lieutenant general Gerhatz has quite the distinct voice. Or AI possibly, but whole german media is reporting already, so....

Temstar said:

I can't help but think these "North Korean" shells coming to light at this time reflects some sort of change. Both on weibo and myself I can see two possibilities:

1. It's a message for NATO, in light of recent noise for greater NATO involvement in the war it may be a warning message that this escalation will result in greater support from mysterious power from the east towards Russia.

2. Ever since the start of the war folks in China who deals with Russia have been saying Russia is not entirely pleased with level of support from China, with their main argument being the Soviet Union provided much greater material aid to China during the Korean War and today a reciprocation is expected. The Chinese retort to this is generally "Well you didn't provide all that aid initially did you? You only did once PVA proved their prowess on the battlefield after the first 3 offensive phases. If you guys can perform as well today as PVA then we can talk."

It may be that Russian performance since the partial mobilisation has proved their united front value, hence the escalating material support. News about the Desertcross 1000-3 deal emerged in November where it was clear Russians have successfully defeated the Ukrainian summer counteroffensive. And now these shells are starting to show up after Avdeevka was successfully captured.

Click to expand...

While I think there is an element of China trying to get the Russians to get their act together, there are also broader strategic considerations that is probably far more pivotal in China’s decision to withhold lethal support thus far.

The war has settled into an uneasy balance where NATO and Russia broadly know and stay within their own respective lanes. It is massively disadvantageous to Russia to have NATO ISR plugged into Ukrainian kill chains, but they don’t want to risk a war with NATO to change that balance. Massive lethal support from China might cause them to change their calculus and that could have unintended consequences.

Another reason I am somewhat dubious about these mysterious shell claims is the fact that Russia really isn’t short of shells with their NK and Iranian deals (or are those deals shell games to help explain the massive increase in Russian ammo supply?). Besides, won’t the Russian guns have the same issues as the Ukrainians did in firing high pressured Chinese rounds from soviet guns?

plawolf said:

While I think there is an element of China trying to get the Russians to get their act together, there are also broader strategic considerations that is probably far more pivotal in China’s decision to withhold lethal support thus far.

The war has settled into an uneasy balance where NATO and Russia broadly know and stay within their own respective lanes. It is massively disadvantageous to Russia to have NATO ISR plugged into Ukrainian kill chains, but they don’t want to risk a war with NATO to change that balance. Massive lethal support from China might cause them to change their calculus and that could have unintended consequences.

Another reason I am somewhat dubious about these mysterious shell claims is the fact that Russia really isn’t short of shells with their NK and Iranian deals (or are those deals shell games to help explain the massive increase in Russian ammo supply?). Besides, won’t the Russian guns have the same issues as the Ukrainians did in firing high pressured Chinese rounds from soviet guns?

Click to expand...

Here's the conversation last year when the subject of different 122mm ammo came up:

Here's the backend of one of these new OF56IM-1 rounds:

Certainly looks like just a regular shell and not base bleed or rocket assisted. This round is suppose to improve the max range of the gun by 4km.

D-30 (L38) max range with standard shell: 15.4km
PL-96 (L32) max range with standard shell: 18km

Given D-30 has a longer barrel that 4km extra range could well be the result of firing spicy PL-96 ammo. If that's the case we would expect to see stories about burst barrels soon if these shells are used in number. Perhaps Russian feel the extra range is worth it and the gun crew should just stand back in case a barrel bursts.

Temstar said:

Here's the conversation last year when the subject of different 122mm ammo came up:

The War in the Ukraine

Honestly, the F-16 thing is a stupid distraction. These spokespeople need to shut up about it. There have been a few posters here clamouring for them to be sent over, and I said it was so stupid. 6 months will make them able to fly at a basic level, they won't be able to exploit the plane to...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

Here's the backend of one of these new OF-56IM-1 rounds:
View attachment 126113
Certainly looks like just a regular shell and not base bleed or rocket assisted. This round is suppose to improve the max range of the gun by 4km.

D-30 (L38) max range with standard shell: 15.4km
PL-96 (L32) max range with standard shell: 18km

Given D-30 has a longer barrel that 4km extra range could well be the result of firing spicy PL-96 ammo. If that's the case we would expect to see stories about burst barrels soon if these shells are used in number. Perhaps Russian feel the extra range is worth it and the gun crew should just stand back in case a barrel bursts.

Click to expand...

Just remove some of the propellant or use different charges in the first place.

Temstar said:

Here's the conversation last year when the subject of different 122mm ammo came up:

The War in the Ukraine

Honestly, the F-16 thing is a stupid distraction. These spokespeople need to shut up about it. There have been a few posters here clamouring for them to be sent over, and I said it was so stupid. 6 months will make them able to fly at a basic level, they won't be able to exploit the plane to...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

Here's the backend of one of these new OF56IM-1 rounds:
View attachment 126113
Certainly looks like just a regular shell and not base bleed or rocket assisted. This round is suppose to improve the max range of the gun by 4km.

D-30 (L38) max range with standard shell: 15.4km
PL-96 (L32) max range with standard shell: 18km

Given D-30 has a longer barrel that 4km extra range could well be the result of firing spicy PL-96 ammo. If that's the case we would expect to see stories about burst barrels soon if these shells are used in number. Perhaps Russian feel the extra range is worth it and the gun crew should just stand back in case a barrel bursts.

Click to expand...

If the extra range is the result of aerodynamic refinements, there won't be a case for barrels bursting. Another feature is that the Chinese shells may have more consistent tolerances and QC, so you can get more predictable results with less dispersion.

The Ukrainian Air Force reports that it shot down another Su-34 aircraft that attacked the front line with guided bombs.

Furthermore, during the night, 14 of the 17 Shahed drones were shot down.

In total, Ukraine claims to have shot down 14 aircraft since Feb/2024.

ficker22 said:

Or AI possibly,

Click to expand...

Wow, if it's AI. someone definitely creepy enough to have actual database of his voice for AI training material.

M1064A3 self propelled mortar and Pinzgauer captured in Avdeyevka in good condition. From Avdeyevka to Kubinka.


Ukrainian UAV hits a residential building in St. Petersburg.


Mariupol rebuilt.


Avdeyevka suffered like Mariupol but it can be rebuilt.


Krasnopol strikes on Ukrainian temporary shelters fired from a MSTA-S.


Krab SPG gets taken out in counterbattery struggle.


Ammo depot of the AFU in Gulyaypol gets taken out by MSTA-S, which looks to be another Krasnopol strike.


More Krasnopol hits on AFU locations.


Pickups and trucks used by the AFU gets hit by FPV drones.


France suffers from an acute shortage of gunpowder to make missiles for Kiev.


Quality of our fighters leaves much to be desired says Ukrainian gunman.


Syr changed the leadership of many AFU brigades, finding them unsatisfactory.


According to the founder of the PMC Blackwater, it is better to give the Russian Bear everything it wants to bring the conflict to a close.


JDAM hits Avdeyevka coke plant.


In the Sumy region, Ukrainian Gvozdika SPG gets hit by Krasnopol.


Night arrival of Gerans in Kharkhiv.


First images from Russian Meteor-M satellite.


Failed X-35U missile in Krasnodar region. The antiship missile is now being used to strike ground targets, launched from aircraft with a range of up to 250km.


Ukrainian Akasya SPG gets taken out by Lancet in the Sumy region.


Ukrainian mortar nest gets Krasnopoled in the Kharkhiv region.


Ukrainians using a UAV that explodes in the air, spreading the area with shrapnel. In this footage the Russians however are unharmed.


Russian 5th Brigade on a tank assault on Krasnogorovka.

Sinnavuuty said:

The Ukrainian Air Force reports that it shot down another Su-34 aircraft that attacked the front line with guided bombs.

Furthermore, during the night, 14 of the 17 Shahed drones were shot down.

In total, Ukraine claims to have shot down 14 aircraft since Feb/2024.

Click to expand...

Only one confirmed by open intelligence sources, even by the pro Ukrainian ones.
There is only video recording of one.
People really need to stop giving any credibility to anything Ukranians say

Devastating effect of glide bombs at the entry of Olivs'ka. How can you manage to hold a defensive line if that happen...