wouldnt that be a pain if they were to push there in future?
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
I think that front will remain defensive for foreseeable future. The East will take a while.
According to news coming out today Severodonetsk is 75% in Russian hands. According to the defense analyst Micheal Clarke the Ukrainians appear to be withdrawing in good order and the Russians are yet again failing to seize the opportunity and are allowing the Ukrainians to reorganize.
He is of the opinion if the Ukrainians manage to hold for the next two months , they will be in a much better shape than the Russians thanks to all the “big stuff” that’s on its way. This is in stark contrast to the warning that Gen. Clarke gave last month that the time is on the Russian side:
He is of the opinion if the Ukrainians manage to hold for the next two months , they will be in a much better shape than the Russians thanks to all the “big stuff” that’s on its way. This is in stark contrast to the warning that Gen. Clarke gave last month that the time is on the Russian side:
To hold for two month ? They are withdrawing...they are not holding anything. It's perfect for the Russian advance if they withdraw from urban area... the worst thing is urban combat for Russia. If Ukraine troops withdraw all the way to open ground and get stuck at a river without any means to cross it, abandonning equipments and getting mauled by AIR and artillery, it play in Russian hands big time.
I see, so what Clarke is saying is that even in defeat and retreat, Ukraine is winning. That's the best strategy, if no matter what Ukraine does, they are always winning lol.
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Yes, even with its slightly more elevated grounds, Lysychansk does not seem to have the prospect of holding out longer than Severodonetsk. Once all the grounds near Severodonetsk are cleared (maybe in a week's time), they will start their heavy shelling of Lysychansk and will probably crack it two weeks after that. What is more, there were rumors that the Russians already took Svyatohirsk. If that is true, than the Russians will go all the way to Slovyansk from the north very soon. In a month time, it will be all over. Even if Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are still in it, they will be cut off and pounded to pieces.
I used to wonder why the Ukrainians in Donbass did not retreat to the Western Ukraine. Now I am of the opinion that they don't really have that option. Having lost most of their armor and out of gas, they will be destroyed if they try to leave the fortified positions they currently occupy and run in open country to the West. Bridges can easily be blown up. Now you are out in the open waiting for the attack aircrafts to show up.
Furthermore, I don't believe a big offensive is coming from Western Ukraine. Even if NATO can muster the equipment and can round up enough people to fight(highly doubtful), they will have only been trained for a couple of months and can barely hold a rifle. What is more, they can't even train in open ground without being hit. What the Ukrainians lack are able bodied, trained and motivated men. Most of these would have already died in the Donbass theater. If you recall how the Saudi arm forces with the best armored vehicles and tanks were defeated by the Houthis in Yemen, motivation is a big factor and so is training. Sending a hundred thousand (assume there is enough equipment to equip that many) slightly trained men against a professional arm forces of Russia which have long range rocket artilleries, air force and longer yet range missiles, which are well led will just send them to their deaths, no matter how well equip they are.
Both HistoryLegends and Shilao made the same comment yesterday that there is no big offensive coming. Everyone thought Ukraine would be arming and training a few brigades with all western stuff at the Polish border, then once they are ready send them to the front in one go as a big fist to make an impact. However we are observing that Kiev is actually sending all the gear they are receiving piecemeal to Donbas and to their counterattacks as soon as they are available. Thus there is not appreciable buildup in Western Ukraine.
Xi Yazhou disparaged this behavior in gaming terms calling it "送菜" or "feeding".
Let's bypass the fact that a few brigades worth of people, even with the best equipment, won't win the war, how would you supply the logistics? Mechanized warfare is very resource intensive. Since most of Eastern Ukraine is out of fuel, how would they provide the fuel that far away from the Polish border? Tankers won't last long once they are headed East. What about ammo? Cannon shells are very heavy and must rely on trains, which can be hit. Even against all odds, you are able to successfully deliver a trainload of ammo, you will need trucks to deliver them to the front, which requires a lot of trucks and can be hit. The rail network in the entire Ukraine is being disrupted. Once the Russians takes Donbass, they will even out the frontline and if the attacking forces make a mistake, they can quickly be surrounded and pounded with cannons.
The best option, I think, would have been to pull out most of the troops and equipment to more defensive lines on the other side of the Dnieper river and blow up most of the bridges over the river. They would be conceding a huge chunk of the country but would be much more defensible than the current situation. However with them not having control over the crossings around Kherson and Russia being able to attack via Belarus I think Ukraine is screwed either way. They failed big time with their "counteroffensive" around Kharkov. I think that will lose them the entire East of the country.
I saw someone who came up with a great term on this: the most important sector of AFU defense is the Twitter Oblast.
At first you might dismiss that as Zelensky being stupid and more concerned with the propaganda than actual battlefield, but actually if you seriously think about it does make sense for them. Without western aid AFU would have collapsed long ago, keeping that aid flowing in is the most important thing for them for once EU and the US decide they've thrown enough money and equipment into this black hole and cut them loose they are done.
That aid is not unconditional, the Ukrainian Government have to make it seem like they are still in the fight and can take the fight to the Russians from time to time and not just getting pounded silly by Russian artillery every day in Donbas. That's why they have to do Snake Island and Kharkiv and Kherson. It is putting politics ahead of sound military strategy, but the politics itself does have very real military implications.