The War in the Ukraine

MortyandRick said:

As previously mentioned, so even when Ukraine loses, it's spun as a win. I guess only time will tell. It's the same story from mariupol during the siege. They wanted to bleed the Russians, but in the end they bled out first it seems.

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The real problem for Ukraine is what happens when they lose their Donbass bastions. The rest of the country is quite open, do they have the reserves necessary to stop a Russian advance to the Dnieper? What about their supply lines across the Dnieper?

MortyandRick said:

As previously mentioned, so even when Ukraine loses, it's spun as a win. I guess only time will tell. It's the same story from mariupol during the siege. They wanted to bleed the Russians, but in the end they bled out first it seems.

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Unless Russia mobilizes, Ukraine can bleed more. They have a much deeper pool.

In a war of attrition, with western heavy weapons starting to make an entrance, the future is bleak for Russian ambition in Ukraine.

lucretius said:

Unless Russia mobilizes, Ukraine can bleed more. They have a much deeper pool.

In a war of attrition, with western heavy weapons starting to make an entrance, the future is bleak for Russian ambition in Ukraine.

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This war is do or die for Russia, do you think that if they face certain defeat in Ukraine unless they mobilize, that they would fail to do so? Even with their current military, they are holding a great deal of their best troops back. Support for the war is very high in Russia, instead of a general mobilization, they are choosing a less costly path, hiring more volunteers. There is no lack of Russians volunteering for the war. Latest I heard was that they will increase the number of troops by a couple of hundred thousand. By keeping the tempo of the war at this pace, the Russians can last indefinitely. So far, all the prediction of heavy losses of the Russian army has been debunked. Early on, there were talks of Russians running out of tanks by June. There is no sign of that now. They have been very flexible in ceding ground to the Ukrainians to preserve the lives of Russian soldiers. This war has been a one sided slaughter of the Ukrainians mainly using Russian cannons. A few well publicized Russian losses, like the failed attempt by the Russians at crossing the river, which even the Russians have admitted were heavy losses to them. The best estimate of that event was that the Russians lost somewhere north of 100 people. The Ukrainians are losing 500 a day, every day in the Donbass region.

On the Ukraine side, things look dire. Once Donbass is done, a large majority of the professional soldiers on the Ukraine side, along with their hardware are going to be gone. The Western hardware come nowhere near enough to replace the lost ones. We are sending four units of HIMARS and everyone is jumping up and down celebrating. That is nothing in the grand scheme of things. While they have a lot of people, there were continuing news that they were grabbing people off the streets and push them to the front with very minimal training and limited hardware. Not a sign of the country with a deep pool of people ready to fight. Forced conscripts with no training will be more of a liability in the front. Desertion is rampant. If they get sent to the front and quickly die and news get back home, there will soon be a rebellion inside Ukraine against the war as things get personal for the local population.

reservior dogs said:

This war is do or die for Russia, do you think that if they face certain defeat in Ukraine unless they mobilize, that they would fail to do so? Even with their current military, they are holding a great deal of their best troops back. Support for the war is very high in Russia, instead of a general mobilization, they are choosing a less costly path, hiring more volunteers. There is no lack of Russians volunteering for the war. Latest I heard was that they will increase the number of troops by a couple of hundred thousand. By keeping the tempo of the war at this pace, the Russians can last indefinitely. So far, all the prediction of heavy losses of the Russian army has been debunked. Early on, there were talks of Russians running out of tanks by June. There is no sign of that now. They have been very flexible in ceding ground to the Ukrainians to preserve the lives of Russian soldiers. This war has been a one sided slaughter of the Ukrainians mainly using Russian cannons. A few well publicized Russian losses, like the failed attempt by the Russians at crossing the river, which even the Russians have admitted were heavy losses to them. The best estimate of that event was that the Russians lost somewhere north of 100 people. The Ukrainians are losing 500 a day, every day in the Donbass region.

On the Ukraine side, things look dire. Once Donbass is done, a large majority of the professional soldiers on the Ukraine side, along with their hardware are going to be gone. The Western hardware come nowhere near enough to replace the lost ones. We are sending four units of HIMARS and everyone is jumping up and down celebrating. That is nothing in the grand scheme of things. While they have a lot of people, there were continuing news that they were grabbing people off the streets and push them to the front with very minimal training and limited hardware. Not a sign of the country with a deep pool of people ready to fight. Forced conscripts with no training will be more of a liability in the front. Desertion is rampant. If they get sent to the front and quickly die and news get back home, there will soon be a rebellion inside Ukraine against the war as things get personal for the local population.

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Okay, lets address your points one at a time.

"This war is do or die for Russia, do you think that if they face certain defeat in Ukraine unless they mobilize, that they would fail to do so?"

Russia can't mobilize unless it declares a war. This carries huge risk as it will remove the option of de-escalation. Russia may feel like victory can not be guaranteed by conventional means, however legally declaring war removes the flexibility of an "off-ramp". Russia may want to cash in gains and try again later, without the instability national mobilization would bring. As it stands now though, Ukraine has a head start.

"By keeping the tempo of the war at this pace, the Russians can last indefinitely. "

No they can not. Russia's loses are not sustainable over the longer period and we have already seen them dipping into reserve hardware.

Equipment is not Russia's problem though, it's manpower. Ukraine has plenty of manpower but lacks equipment.

"While they have a lot of people, there were continuing news that they were grabbing people off the streets and push them to the front with very minimal training and limited hardware."

Ukraine has been doing this since day one.

lucretius said:

Okay, lets address your points one at a time.

"This war is do or die for Russia, do you think that if they face certain defeat in Ukraine unless they mobilize, that they would fail to do so?"

Russia can't mobilize unless it declares a war. This carries huge risk as it will remove the option of de-escalation. Russia may feel like victory can not be guaranteed by conventional means, however legally declaring war removes the flexibility of an "off-ramp". Russia may want to cash in gains and try again later, without the instability national mobilization would bring. As it stands now though, Ukraine has a head start.

"By keeping the tempo of the war at this pace, the Russians can last indefinitely. "

No they can not. Russia's loses are not sustainable over the longer period and we have already seen them dipping into reserve hardware.

Equipment is not Russia's problem though, it's manpower. Ukraine has plenty of manpower but lacks equipment.

"While they have a lot of people, there were continuing news that they were grabbing people off the streets and push them to the front with very minimal training and limited hardware."

Ukraine has been doing this since day one.

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Russia is fighting for the survival of the country. If they feel that general mobilization is the only way, de-escalation would be the least of their concerns. Clearly, they don't feel that the war in Ukraine would fall apart unless they do general mobilization. With their current troops, they are winning in Donbass without suffering excessive casualties. The Russians are fighting this war very slowly in an effort to minimize their casualties. They are very flexible in ceding ground when they feel they are weak in a given location.

In this war, cannons do most of the killing by both sides. Some estimates are 85% of the casualties are caused by cannons. Even reports from Ukrainian troops have stated that Russia has a 20/1 advantage in cannons and things are getting worse for Ukraine. Some reports that Ukrainian cannons were being taken out while they were setting up to fire. Most of their professional and well trained cannon operators are now either dead or have suffered concussions. You cannot kill a lot of Russians unless you have cannons.

The other ways you can kill Russians are inside the cities. As we can see in Severodonetsk, the way the Russians roll is to bombard the city until the resistance is almost gone before their troops enter the city. Often times, Ukrainians are running away very fast, often leaving their equipment behind. In Severodonetsk, there were very little resistance for the first few days and finally we are seeing a small pocket of Ukrainian resistance.

The final way Ukrainians kill Russians is if the Russians storm the entrenched areas held by the Ukrainians. They way they do it is to first place a lot of accurate cannon fire near or in the trenches, then very quickly rush in with their armored vehicles, dismount and get to the trenches before the Ukrainians recover their senses. There I would say the Russians can suffer a 2 or 3 to 1 rate as the Ukrainians. However, I don't see them doing a lot of storming the trenches. Mostly they have one area of break through, and take the towns in the rear of the trenches and cut off the trenches. Popasna is an example of how this was done.

If you look at recently how the war is fought, there are just not that many opportunities for the Ukrainians to kill the Russians. Many Ukrainians went to the front line and got killed, never having see any enemy.

lucretius said:

Okay, lets address your points one at a time.

"This war is do or die for Russia, do you think that if they face certain defeat in Ukraine unless they mobilize, that they would fail to do so?"

Russia can't mobilize unless it declares a war. This carries huge risk as it will remove the option of de-escalation. Russia may feel like victory can not be guaranteed by conventional means, however legally declaring war removes the flexibility of an "off-ramp". Russia may want to cash in gains and try again later, without the instability national mobilization would bring. As it stands now though, Ukraine has a head start.

"By keeping the tempo of the war at this pace, the Russians can last indefinitely. "

No they can not. Russia's loses are not sustainable over the longer period and we have already seen them dipping into reserve hardware.

Equipment is not Russia's problem though, it's manpower. Ukraine has plenty of manpower but lacks equipment.

"While they have a lot of people, there were continuing news that they were grabbing people off the streets and push them to the front with very minimal training and limited hardware."

Ukraine has been doing this since day one.

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Russia has the option of freezing the conflict at any point. They can stop their offensives after capturing the Donbass and continue bombing Ukrainian infrastructure. That would be a similar intensity for Russia as their mission in Syria. Expensive, but not a great cost to the country.

After a year or so of that, Ukraine will be a country with no airports, trains or even roads. There will be no electrical grid if Russia chooses to target power stations. Ukraine can't last forever. The longer the bombing continues, the less there will be of Ukraine that can be defended. And without roads or bridges, western weapons won't make it to the front lines

A totally normal day at the beach Ukrainian style !!!!

lucretius said:

Russia can't mobilize unless it declares a war. This carries huge risk as it will remove the option of de-escalation. Russia may feel like victory can not be guaranteed by conventional means, however legally declaring war removes the flexibility of an "off-ramp". Russia may want to cash in gains and try again later, without the instability national mobilization would bring. As it stands now though, Ukraine has a head start.

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Russia can moblize much higher number without much economic impact. the population number of 30 million indicated to the intended audience. than you add global contractors like Wagners.
Effectiveness of airpower will decide the outcome not the number of troops any given time on ground.

redion said:

A totally normal day at the beach Ukrainian style !!!!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1532709179873452034

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Damn. No fear. Sees explosion, shrugs, goes back to beer.

lucretius said:

Unless Russia mobilizes, Ukraine can bleed more. They have a much deeper pool.

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Deeper pool of what, cannon fodder that barely knows how to hold a rifle?

Ukraine is on its 4th mobilization effort, unless you intend to send every non-bed ridden civilian west of Dniper to fight, there isn't much to do

lucretius said:

In a war of attrition, with western heavy weapons starting to make an entrance, the future is bleak for Russian ambition in Ukraine.

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For every piece of western equipment Ukraine get, which shoddy training, the russians can probably field 2 or 3 times enough equipment to neutralize it.

Here there is more evidence of the "bleak future" of Russian ambitions in Ukraine