The War in the Ukraine

Santamaria said:

I think it is obviously a lie. They claim to have shooted more than 10 aircraft but so far I only saw video evidence of 1.

Ukraine claims are most of the times lies, but those lies allows different wester publications to write articles about Russia suffering staggerin loses and desperate.

Therefore western public don’t feel so bad for the obvious defeat and can be more open to new arms deliveries

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They could be some shotdown that are targets misidentifications at long range. Would have been numerous wreckage and video for short range shotdown anyway if it was the case.

Would be interesting to know if Russian air forces are putting decoy to draw fire and there's plenty of drones/cruise missiles and FAB mixed with aircrafts flying that could be locked on radar and misidentified at long range. Could not be surprising that some FAB got destroyed when gliding.

Well, given the number of UMPK-updated su-34 (which is probably around 3-4 dozen, minus aircraft undergoing maintenance) - I frankly doubt the current campaign could be sustained even if a single flight is lost.
Unless there is definitive proof of losses and/or visible reduction in intensity of bombing - those claims can be simply ignored.

SolarWarden said:

Everything you just posted could easily be said about your side. Think about that.

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SolarWarden said:

Everything you just posted could easily be said about your side. Think about that.

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Russia wasn't routed at Avdiivka.

Russian soldiers and commanders are not complaining that they can't fire off enough shells.


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Gloire_bb said:

Well, given the number of UMPK-updated su-34 (which is probably around 3-4 dozen, minus aircraft undergoing maintenance) - I frankly doubt the current campaign could be sustained even if a single flight is lost.
Unless there is definitive proof of losses and/or visible reduction in intensity of bombing - those claims can be simply ignored.

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Here's an Ukrainian side view of this question that I found:

More are getting shot down because bombing intensity has increased. If that was true though we'll expect to see a turning point at some stage where the loss of aircraft overwhelms the rate glide bombs are being produced and overall number of bombs dropped daily decrease.

By the way any source on number of Su-34 that's UMPK compatible?

Could it be that RuAf is using air-launched decoys that mimic Su-34s and UAF missiles are hitting these instead of the real planes?

Temstar said:

More are getting shot down because bombing intensity has increased. If that was true though we'll expect to see a turning point at some stage where the loss of aircraft overwhelms the rate glide bombs are being produced and overall number of bombs dropped daily decrease.

By the way any source on number of Su-34 that's UMPK compatible?

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Ukrainian claims about Su-34 losses are bullshit. If Russia lost a dozen Su-34s in a week, that would be like a tenth of all they produced. The Russians would have stopped using the Su-34s. Those kinds of losses wouldn't be sustainable. The Russians reduced frontline bombardments in the initial year of the war after the fighter bombers doing gravity bomb drops at low altitude were targeted by Ukrainians SAMs. And back then the Russians had way less losses in heavy fighter bombers than what Ukraine is claiming now. I think this is just propaganda to try to get their own troops to stop retreating after the rout at Avdiivka.

Thermobaric ODAB-1500 with UMPK arrives on Ukrainian targets at the Ukrainian occupied part of the DPR. This at Zavodsk, Donbass region. Allegedly more than 250 AFU personnel are at the site.


TOS arrivals at Krasnogorovka.


Slovak Zuzana-2 SPG of the AFU gets taken out by Lancet.


TOS firing at Belogorovka from the 7th Brigade.


Polish Krab SPG gets taken out by Lancet in the Artemovosk front. At least 37 of these SPGs have been taken out with video proof.


TOS hitting Ukrainian positions in the Artemovosk front by the 98th VDV. Being short ranged, TOS-1A is vulnerable to Ukrainian FPV drone attacks, but lately TOS now seems to be rampant.


Production of new Su-34 continues.


Russians have penetrated past the center of the Ivanovsky village in the Artemovosk front.


114th Brigade captures Orlovka, conducts media interview while cleaning up.


Sever-V unit tracks columns of Ukrainian vehicles in Chasiv Yar, looses artillery upon them.


AFU T-72 knocked out during assault on Krasnogorovka by the 5th Brigade.


TOS arrivals at Krasnogorovka.


Ka-52 hits Ukrainian temporary base in the Kupyansk front.


Three FABs hit Ukrainian military warehouses in Olhovatki in the Kharkhiv region.


Ukrainian observation post in Krasnogorovka hit by Giatsint-B howitzer of the 238th Brigade.


FAB strikes at Ukrainian facilities at Berislav, Kherson. The bridgehead at Krynki is gone but the VKS continues to blast at Ukrainian military targets all over the region.


Ukrainian towed howitzer gets struck by the 305th Brigade with artillery.


Two FABs hit Ostrovsky, near Kurahovo. One hit a storage center of AFU equipment and the other a temporary barracks of personnel. The logistics chain here supplies reinforcements to Krasnogorovka which is now in battle.


Take down of a Ukrainian Buk AD system. The TEL is spotted and tracked entering a hanger with a fuel tanker, and allegedly with seven personnel. All destroyed when a Krasnopol arrives at the location.


Ukrainian Maxxpro hit by mine.

lych470 said:

Russia wasn't routed at Avdiivka.

Russian soldiers and commanders are not complaining that they can't fire off enough shells.


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Russian service men complaining about lack of ammo isn't healthy for those that complain but there are other ways we're finding out what Russia lacks...


Likely half of those munitions are hazardous but beggars can't be choosy.

Iran claimed to have sold hundreds of BM to Russia too.

Is your argument that North Korea sent Russia something like 3 million assorted rounds, and that's only 30% of North Korea's production capacity? So at full capacity we're looking at 9 million rounds a year, how many rounds a year is NATO making?

The first source is quoting South Korea's Defence Minister, who would have gotten the numbers from South Korea's National Intelligence Service, famous for being very unreliable when it comes to North Korea (just look up their numbers for Hwasong-17 over the years and how many times they got pie in the face). And then your second source is no less than FLG? Is half of the munitions being faulty from either of those two too?