Boy oh boy. Please use sources that ARE AT LEAST OBJECTIVE and not COPY WORD FOR WORD what SOUTH KOREA SPEWS and FALUN GONG source because that's EMBARRASSING.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Analysis:
We know that their growth rate is slow, and still is below 50% of the available fleet (source: fighterbomber).
It implies that only newly-produced planes, and planes that went through repair facilities are compatible, it is not a field upgrade.
This gives us a high estimation of 4x aircraft ever capable of doing UMPK(as of yet), minus aircraft known to be shot down through 2023; probable numbers are lower still. So, realistically this was done by something like 35...25 planes(high/modest estimate).
Given that flankers aren't exactly readiness stars (much less flankers after 2 years of war and thousands of fresh hours of Lo flights under fire) - my gut feeling is that Russia, to maintain the current bombing tempo for the February, could lose just a couple of operational planes at most - including incidents and battle damage. Yet the bombing tempo didn't decrease on Feb. 27-29.
If we take Ukrainian claims at a face value, this would mean not just a big shift in Ru- approaches to air warfare (perhaps explainable, elections/maximum effort), but remaining UMPK-bombers flying 4-6 sorties, per plane daily, for week(s). This just isn't happening, not with this aircraft type (not even talking about crews).
This, of course, isn't everything - other Su-34s still fly just as much (UMPK isn't the only PGM available, just by far the most numerous one; a significant percentage of flights are reconnaissance flights and escort jamming), but they aren't anywhere as exposed to intercept, nor they represent much of tonnage.
Perhaps telling is that known Russian losses are Su-35s, i.e. escorts and the most individually survivable AD suppressors - both early on in Avd. campaign.
Finally, we have multiple instances of recent footage of large AD systems being DEADed (by medium/high-level precision ground fires).
It's important on two aspects:
(1)Air SEAD doesn't have integral control, i.e. its effect on top of what is known(suppression, maybe hits). HARMs are being launched towards the threat(or even blindly, just to dissuade AA operators). Noo footage will come from them.
(2)Visible Russian DEAD is done through ground fires/drone strike control(probably cued by SIGINT).
Everything goes to a single most probable conclusion: AD network is simply suppressed and can't yet recover. Its results are at best very highly inflated, realistically - they're around zero.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Clearly the Russians resurrected Rasputin to resurrect all their lost assets and dead soldiers and officers.
But on a serious note, actual shoot-downs of combat aircraft have usually resulted in a reduction in air strikes in the region as the VKS take stock and hunt for the SAM(s) responsible, and we often see Russian footage of killed SAMs soon after.
Thus, if there is a shootdown claim but the bombs are still raining down, the claim is obvious bullshit.
Oh, maybe I lost the Ghost of Moscow and video games videos in Russian news
My apologies
Your message is contradictory in itself and it is plainly bad propaganda.
If Russia is receiving millions shells from North Korea then by definition Russia does not lack ammunition. The same with Iran and ballistic missiles.
Independently of the origin, the effect in the front is the same.
The claim of half of North Korea shells being hazardous is simply stupid. Half of shells were not hazardous even in the WWII.
You and your sources are pretending that North Korea industry standards are worse that what existed 80 years ago.
Only a person with 0 knowledge of industry can claim such idiocy.
In modern industries defect rate is counted in defects by MILLION.
North Korea maybe be is less advanced, but even 10% hazardous would be already very exaggerated.
Russia does very good receiving ammunition from its allies (or pseudo allies)
Does the U.S. don’t buy ammunition from South Korea to give to Ukraine.
Does Germany don’t beg India, Pakistan and whoever they can find to give ammunition to Ukraine?
seems like the enemies of Russia are not only beggars, they are a chain of beggars. Ukraine begging US, US begging South Korea, US even begging Ecuador!!!
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This is a nice graph of the alleged number of RUAF aircraft that were shot down
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Yeah, like show wreckage or bust. I do however see people taking those claims in face value, which kinda unfortunate.
At this point, we have had far more documented cases of Ukranian artillery detonating while using Pakistani ammo, though rather than anything to do with quality, it has more to do with the Ukranians and its providers not realizing that while Pakistani ammo can have the same caliber, it was meant to be fired from Chinese guns that require higher pressures than old soviet guns(with questionable maintenance to boot) can't handle.
But that got quickly burried in the narrative.
Reports indicate that the United States recently used its F-35 fighter jets to detect and identify Russian anti-aircraft missile systems in Ukraine and this information was transferred to NATO countries.
Canada, like France and Estonia, said it is willing to send troops to Ukraine, as long as they are not used in front-line combat, in line with what was said yesterday by France which defends the sending of soldiers from Ukraine. NATO for training, operation of air defenses and for the protection of some borders, in other words, these countries are proposing to guarantee the Ukrainian rear, thus freeing Ukrainian soldiers to dedicate themselves exclusively to the front line.
Doesn’t matter if North Korean/Iranian ammo are junk. If rumors are to be believed then they are getting ammos from elsewhere too now. Everything is written in perfect Cyrillic but one detail has been neglected.
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