24 Feb
Collapse of Operation Citadel 2.0
Konstantin Sivkov
Vice President of the Russian Academy of Missile and Artillery Sciences for Information Policy, Doctor of Military Sciences
The goals of the Ukrainian army’s offensive in the summer of 2023 and the size of combat groups formed to carry it out are to a certain extent comparable with what the German military fielded for its Operation Citadel in 1943. This gives us the grounds for calling Kiev’s offensive in the summer of 2023 Operation Citadel 2.0.
Considering its military-political consequences, the collapse of Citadel 2.0 meant not simply the Ukrainian army’s military-strategic defeat but also the collapse of the consolidated West’s hybrid blitzkrieg.
...
For this operation, the enemy created a formidable grouping of forces, which numbered almost 160,000 personnel (110 battalions), 2,100 tanks and other armored vehicles, 960 field artillery guns and 114 aircraft. Such an amount of artillery helped create a fire density of up to 10 guns per km of the frontline in the directions of the main attack. The Ukrainian military set up substantial stocks of ammunition: over 500,000 155mm shells, more than 150,000 shells of other calibers, 560,000 mortar rounds and 50 Storm Shadow long-range precision cruise missiles. This density of the Ukrainian army’s artillery and ammunition stocks enabled it to carry out as many as 190 firing missions daily.
...
The Ukrainian army’s strike force should be compared with combat groups and capabilities that took part in battles recorded in world history to have an idea about its scope. In this regard, it will be interesting to compare it with the battlegroup that Nazi Germany’s Wehrmacht deployed against the Soviet Army in its Operation Citadel in the Battle of Kursk in the summer of 1943. According to German data (Mueller-Hillebrand, German Army. 1933-1945), two strike forces had a total strength of about 780,000 personnel, 2,540 tanks and self-propelled artillery systems (with extra 218 weapons under repairs), about 10,000 field guns and over 2,000 aircraft at that time.
...
Russian troops built two, and in the most important directions, three defensive lines, with reserves attached to vast expanses in front of the first basic positions in the tactical zone of defense with sentries and minefields. Along the entire frontline, Russian forces equipped over 3,000 platoon strongholds, 45,000 dugouts and more than 150,000 shelters for equipment. They built about 2,000 km of anti-tank ditches and laid over 7,000 km of minefields, planting about 5 million mines. The minefields were twice as deep as required by the regulations, reaching 600 meters in depth. All this huge amount of work was carried out by military builders, engineer and railway troops. Civilian organizations also assisted Russian troops. The state company Avtodor and specialists from Moscow, the Moscow Region, Crimea and other Russian regions rendered considerable assistance in equipping defense areas.
Such a powerful system of engineered structures and fortifications helped create sustainable defense, even though the enemy enjoyed superiority over the defending troops by 1.5 times in terms of manpower, 1.2 times in terms of armor and 1.3 times in terms of artillery in major attack directions.
Aside from the troops in defense, the Russian military command set up considerable reserves intended to bolster the defending forces and launch counterattacks. The reserves comprised two full-fledged armies that had a total numerical strength of about 60,000 personnel and over 8,600 combat and special vehicles, including 980 tanks and other armored vehicles, and also more than 2,200 various motor vehicles. Considerable forces of army, operational-tactical, long-range and even strategic aviation provided support for the Russian troops.
...
The Russian Army also set up a sufficient stock of ammunition for high-intensity battles for a long period, including UAVs of various designation whose total number was as large as 10,000, judging by the intensity of their use reported from open sources.
...
The Ukrainian army began its offensive on June 4, 2023 by delivering a massive artillery strike and subsequently committing a considerable number of mechanized troops with heavy armor to action, in particular, units operating powerful Western-made tanks delivered to Ukraine, particularly, Leopard 2A6 tanks, and also US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. In this regard, the Ukrainian military repeated the Wehrmacht’s actions of July 5, 1943.
...
The enemy’s armored units advancing in the main direction initially suffered losses from strikes by Russian crews of anti-tank missile systems deployed at forward positions and helicopters. In this defense, Russian Kornet anti-tank missile systems demonstrated their capability effectively to strike Western Leopard 2A6 newest and well-armored tanks. After that, the Ukrainian military encountered minefields and had to move in a long column behind minesweepers. After the enemy’s forward armored vehicles were struck, the columns had to stop, search for a detour and try to retreat. Russian troops delivered artillery strikes on the enemy’s armor concentrated on limited terrain outside the cover of the Ukrainian army’s already thinned-out air defenses while army aircraft carried out sorties to destroy it by anti-tank missiles, and attack aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles also operated effectively. As a result, the enemy sustained heavy casualties. Nonetheless, it continued its attempts to break through the Russian defenses by armored fists for two more weeks.
...
The Ukrainian army’s losses over the period of its offensive turned out to be huge and considerably exceeded the initial strength of the attack force that was replenished during battles by ill-trained personnel and far from the best combat hardware from reserves of the rear. The Ukrainian grouping’s losses amounted to 166,000 personnel or 25% above its initial strength, 789 tanks and 2,400 other armored vehicles or more than 50% above the initial amount, 132 aircraft or 15% more than what the Ukrainian military had by the time of its offensive.
...
We should note that in repelling the Ukrainian army’s offensive in the summer of 2023, the Russian Army actively employed various types of UAVs, considerably outnumbering the enemy’s unmanned aerial vehicles. Russian troops used 1,200 Lancet loitering munitions and 4,400 FPV drones alone in the battles.
...
Ukraine and generally even the collective West suffered grave military and political consequences of the failure of Operation Citadel 2.0. The failure of the Ukrainian army’s offensive meant not only a strategic defeat of Kiev’s forces but also the collapse of the united West’s hybrid blitzkrieg when huge economic losses related to unprecedented sanctions and enormous deliveries of various armaments yielded no results. A trend for the West to lose its status as the ruler of the world’s destinies intensified. In turn, this triggered the process of reducing the Western civilization’s spheres of influence, considering that the BRICS association expanded to 11 countries and another 27 states applied for the organization’s membership.
...
However, despite such a heavy defeat suffered by the Ukrainian military, the enemy is still strong enough. This is because it is the US-led united West rather than Ukraine with its armed forces that is Russia’s main enemy and Ukraine is just one of the fronts of the West’s hybrid war against Russia. The failure of the first hybrid blitzkrieg does not mean a cessation of the war against Russia. On the contrary, this implies expanding the aggression and beefing up the entire set of actions constituting hybrid warfare, including the opening of new fronts of the armed confrontation.
That is why, similar to how the Soviet Army had a long way to Berlin after winning the Battle of Kursk, today Russia still has to embrace a long struggle after Kiev’s botched Operation Citadel 2.0 until the Final Victory that it will certainly win. But it has already achieved the first and truly Big Victory.
