The War in the Ukraine

Tootensky said:

I'm going to quote wikipedia here: "In the aftermath of the failure at Moscow, Brauchitsch was dismissed as Commander-in-Chief of the German Army on 19 December and was transferred to the Führerreserve (officers reserve), where he remained without assignment until the end of the war; he never saw Hitler again."

The analogies write themselves.

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yet the german marshal that zaluzhny has in mind for himself is probably hindenburg, if it can be believed that he has political ambitions.

if that were the case, taking the uk ambassador post may not be a bad idea at all. he has more freedom to speak, to compete for international spotlight, and if ukraine's defence crumbles he can return as the saviour to replace zelensky.

drowingfish said:

yet the german marshal that zaluzhny has in mind for himself is probably hindenburg, if it can be believed that he has political ambitions.

if that were the case, taking the uk ambassador post may not be a bad idea at all. he has more freedom to speak, to compete for international spotlight, and if ukraine's defence crumbles he can return as the saviour to replace zelensky.

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That sounds more like a Philippe Pétain type deal, before Pétain came back to become head of state for Vichy France he was the French ambassador to Spain.

Polish mercenary, now ex-, had his moment of revelation when he and his comrades were thrown into Krynki. Now he's renounced his own government and fighting for the Russian side.


Mistreatment of Kherson civilians by AFU soldiers, in this case by the 35th Marine Brigade of the AFU. It's no wonder there's partisan activity in the region.


At the same time, soldiers of the 35th Marine Brigade of the AFU are blaming their commanders.


Ukrainian TDPs are being FAB bombed again. In the right side of the Dniepr.


Mortar nest and ammo warehouse of the AFU tracked by special brigade Sever-V and targeted with artillery.


AFU tanks under fire and being abandoned as the Russian 5th Brigade advances into Georgievka.


FABs with UMPK hit a large ammo depot of the AFU in the village of Yurchenko in the Kharkhiv region.


Minibus operated by the AFU gets taken out by a Lancet in the Kherson region.

Atomicfrog said:

It will be a mess in the worst part of the year... they are low finance, low equipements, low ammunitions and low personnel situation at the front. You don't need a lot to tip the balance badly right now. Even one week to sorting things out with the new staff is too long.

Look more like a panic move than a clever one, doing it in august would have been more logic.

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Exactly my thought on hearing this news. It seems most probable that there is an inevitable large defeat looming and the Ukrainian leadership is busy looking for a patsy to pin all the blame on.

Geran-2 variant with thermobaric warhead confirmed and already in operational use. It's been suspected for a while.


Ukrainians trying to invent their own Lancet equivalent. Crude as they mayben can't be discounted that they may also still be dangerous in the battlefield.


AFU counterattack in Avdiivka goes wrong as the Bradley hits a mine. Two escaped, one unfortunately did not. Bradley belongs to the 47th of the AFU.


EW station of the AFU hit by Russian FPV drone. Obviously the electronic warfare didn't work.


A Chinese volunteer in the Russian army.


Bradley of the 47th firing at Russian positions in Stepnoye.


Battle for Georgievka begins.


CAESAR at work with the AFU.


AFU 82mm mortar nest gets knocked out by artillery.


Lancet hits an AFU installed road block in Kherson.


This Orlan is targeting Ukrainian artillery for Krasnopol shots but Lancets beat it to the target.


AFU pickup hit by FPV drone.


Ukrainian deployment point in Zaporozhye hit by arty.


Another hotel used by mercs hit? Ukraine reports that a rocket attack hit a 3 storey hotel in the village of Zolochev in the Kharkhiv region.


Russians, particularly those from the Far East, have broken into Novomikhailovka. TOS and cluster munitions barrages from Uragan MLRS preceded the assault.


Positional fights towards Chasiv Yar. An Iskander strike was indeed delivered at a HIMARS launcher at Konstantinovka.


FPV drone strike on Ukrainian troops on the move, seen in night vision. Why the thermals? Ukrainian troops seldom move outside of trenches by day, because they would immediately be bombarded by artillery and mortars. So they sneak out at night, but unfortunately the Russians do have night vision.


Ukrainian T-72 tank abandoned and Russian drones dropped bombs into the hatch to finish it off.


Full on Russian tank assault but missing the Ukrainian FPV drones and artillery. Ran out?

Tam said:

A Chinese volunteer in the Russian army.

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This guy seems green AF, marvelling at how the barrel of his rifle is smoking a little after shooting off 3 clips does not make me think he has ever fired a real gun before.

Tam said:

Full on Russian tank assault but missing the Ukrainian FPV drones and artillery. Ran out?

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This is what all the Russian probing attacks and sacrifices build up to.

The Ukrainians hammer Russian probing forces while Russian recon assets track their drones and artillery back to their launch points and hiding places and send artillery/lancets to deal with them. The Russians then launch a big assault once they are satisfied local enemy fire support have been sufficiently degraded.

plawolf said:

Exactly my thought on hearing this news. It seems most probable that there is an inevitable large defeat looming and the Ukrainian leadership is busy looking for a patsy to pin all the blame on.

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its really hard to shift undue blame onto zaluzhny though. zaluzhny vs zelensky is basically the professional vs the politician equivalent in the eyes of ukrainians, especially soldiers. kicking zaluzhny out now will actually help him by exonerating him from any blame for even bigger catastrophes down the road. this will likely go the way of germany, where the breakdown in state apparatus, unemployment, along with thousands of soldiers returning from the front creates a volatile situation and engenders a call for a strong leader. zaluzhny will then become the natural candidate to replace zelensky.

drowingfish said:

its really hard to shift undue blame onto zaluzhny though. zaluzhny vs zelensky is basically the professional vs the politician equivalent in the eyes of ukrainians, especially soldiers. kicking zaluzhny out now will actually help him by exonerating him from any blame for even bigger catastrophes down the road. this will likely go the way of germany, where the breakdown in state apparatus, unemployment, along with thousands of soldiers returning from the front creates a volatile situation and engenders a call for a strong leader. zaluzhny will then become the natural candidate to replace zelensky.

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Something something the Jewish politician stabbed the general in the back. Considering the existing nazi element inside the country the parallel is uncanny.

TK3600 said:

Something something the Jewish politician stabbed the general in the back. Considering the existing nazi element inside the country the parallel is uncanny.

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i think that is certainly a possibility. don't forget that politically zelensky has a major weakness that is his expired term as president. the rada may turn in him if the war doesnt go well, then he be in trouble.

Temstar said:

I personally think the really big one, the failure of the counteroffensive being blamed on Zaluzhny insisting that not all 10 brigades be concentrated in a single direction but instead spread out into 3 separate direction is unfair. Sure the 3 pronged attack didn't work, but there isn't a lot of evidence to support if AFU focused all of that into a single thrust at Tokmak that it would fair any better.

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Ukraine could have focused on a single axis outside the Tokmak objective. The doctrine emphasizes attacking weak points and not strong points, it made no military sense to concentrate on the Tokmak axis even if it was the only direction of attack of the counteroffensive, it would still incur heavy casualties, therefore Ukraine should have focused on areas to the south with ample room for maneuver and with fortifications much less dense and in depth than the Tokmak axis.