The War in the Ukraine

drowingfish

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hard to believe doing a big change over like that during this winter critical phase. Maybe in one month and an half when everything will be in a stand still because of mud but right now, the front is evolving and it's not pretty for the Ukrainian side. Changing politicians is one thing shuffling the military brass is something else, it will hit logistics.. Lower echelons need to have the capabilities and stockpîles to go without help for higher up levels for a while if it's the case.
the most direct impact will be on command and control. it is no surprise that if you remove the head-honcho you also have to purge all of his protégé. what this implies is that his replacement will have to bring in a whole team, and they will all be new at this, and they will have zelensky breathing down their necks. this will also shake the confidence of the units at the front in the soundness of decision making which directs their operations.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
the most direct impact will be on command and control. it is no surprise that if you remove the head-honcho you also have to purge all of his protégé. what this implies is that his replacement will have to bring in a whole team, and they will all be new at this, and they will have zelensky breathing down their necks. this will also shake the confidence of the units at the front in the soundness of decision making which directs their operations.
It will be a mess in the worst part of the year... they are low finance, low equipements, low ammunitions and low personnel situation at the front. You don't need a lot to tip the balance badly right now. Even one week to sorting things out with the new staff is too long.

Look more like a panic move than a clever one, doing it in august would have been more logic.
 

Tootensky

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm going to quote wikipedia here: "In the aftermath of the failure at Moscow, Brauchitsch was dismissed as Commander-in-Chief of the German Army on 19 December and was transferred to the Führerreserve (officers reserve), where he remained without assignment until the end of the war; he never saw Hitler again."

The analogies write themselves.
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
Hard to believe doing a big change over like that during this winter critical phase. Maybe in one month and an half when everything will be in a stand still because of mud but right now, the front is evolving and it's not pretty for the Ukrainian side. Changing politicians is one thing shuffling the military brass is something else, it will hit logistics.. Lower echelons need to have the capabilities and stockpîles to go without help for higher up levels for a while if it's the case.

The beginning of a purge appears to be imminent. As soon as the middle of this week if sources are to be believed.

Zelenskyy mulling replacement of Ukraine's General Staff Chief in addition to Commander-in-Chief – Ukrainska Pravda's sources​

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been considering replacing not only Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, but also General Staff Chief Serhii Shaptala.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda’s sources in government

Details: Several Ukrainska Pravda’s sources in both the president's office and military circles reported that consultations are underway regarding the replacement of the General Staff Chief, in addition to that of the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

Answering the question about forthcoming changes within the General Staff, a high-ranking source noted, "Shaptala will also leave the General Staff. [The fate of] all others is yet undecided."

"All of those events [regarding the replacement of Zaluzhnyi and Shaptala – ed.] may happen in the middle of the week," another one of Ukrainska Pravda’s informed sources added.

The President's Office also emphasised that in an interview with Italian TV channel Rai1, Zelenskyy spoke not only about the dismissal of Zaluzhnyi, but about a "reboot" in various sectors and the replacement of various heads of governmental divisions, as replacing one person would not bring about the changes he saw as necessary.

Answering Rai1's question about Zaluzhnyi's possible replacement, Zelenskyy said that he was mulling the replacement of "[not just] one person, but [a change in the] direction of the country's leadership", because in order to win the war, it will be necessary to "push everyone in the same direction" and not lose faith.
[The fate of] all others is yet undecided."
"All of those events [regarding the replacement of Zaluzhnyi and Shaptala – ed.] may happen in the middle of the week," another one of Ukrainska Pravda’s informed sources added.
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generalmeng

New Member
Registered Member
I wonder if this purge means a switch of strategy? maybe switching from conventional warfare into asymmetrical warfare?
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
I wonder if this purge means a switch of strategy? maybe switching from conventional warfare into asymmetrical warfare?
You talk about giving all Ukraine and do guerilla warfare in plain fields ??? It's full on in asymmetrical warfare with standoff weapons and FPV drones anyway...

Drawing a real line that could be defended behind the Dniepr and start fortification right now could keep the west of Ukraine whole and way to costly to take. After the line is set, hammer a new border at the Dniepr and a neutral stance. Keeping access to black sea is clearly a must economicaly.

Continue like that and i'm not sure at all what will be remaining in the end. Countries are starting to talk openly about getting parts of the west right now...what it will look like in one year ?
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
TASS is reporting that Zaluzhyii has been moved being the ambassador of the UK. The source that TASS says is Yevheniy Shevchenko or the 76th Region, Peoples Deputy of Ukraine. Resignation is expected around Feb 8, which matches what Pravda Ukraine is claiming.

Zaluzhny agrees to be Ukraine’s ambassador to UK — lawmaker​

MOSCOW, February 5. /TASS/. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny has reportedly agreed to be Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom and will leave Ukraine within days, lawmaker Yevgeny Shevchenko said.

"I would like to say that according to my sources, Zaluzhny has agreed to be the ambassador to Great Britain. He is highly likely to go there and we know that those who leave the country as ambassadors are political retirees. None of them has ever returned to their former positions, this is Ukraine’s tradition. I hate to disappoint any Zaluzhny fans," he said in an interview with Vadim Karasev, director of Ukraine’s Institute of Global Strategies.

According to the lawmaker, if Zaluzhny opts to stay in Ukraine he has every opportunity to achieve great things in politics after resigning. "If he opts to be ambassador, he is not a politician any longer, 100% If he stays in Ukraine and begins to build a political career, he has good prospects, very good prospects," Shevchenko said, adding that Zaluzhny’s resignation could be expected on February 8 or somewhere around there.

On Sunday, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said in an interview with Italy’s RAI television channel that he was looking at reshuffling the defense ministry. Reports about Zaluzhny’s potential dismissal appeared in the Ukrainian mass media and on social networks on January 29, when Zelensky allegedly suggested that Zaluzhny step down voluntarily. According to former lawmaker Borislav Bereza, Zaluzhny was offered a post as Ukraine’s ambassador to a European country, but turned this offer down.

Ukraine’s media and social networks continue speculating about Zaluzhny’s future. Some say that his resignation stems from the failure of Ukraine’s "counteroffensive" in the summer of 2023 and Zaluzhny’s political ambitions. A number of foreign media outlets confirmed reports about Zaluzhny’s dismissal, citing their own sources.
Shevchenko said, adding that Zaluzhny’s resignation could be expected on February 8 or somewhere around there.
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Atomicfrog

Major
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TASS is reporting that Zaluzhyii has been moved being the ambassador of the UK. The source that TASS says is Yevheniy Shevchenko or the 76th Region, Peoples Deputy of Ukraine. Resignation is expected around Feb 8, which matches what Pravda Ukraine is claiming.



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He saved is life and he will carry with him his ''savings''. Maybe it's the plan that all the top politicians and brass will have these kind of posting soon.
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
If his resignation is confirmed, I think this is backlash after the shoot down of the Il-76 carrying the Ukrainian prisoners.
The Ukrainian army made Zelensky look bad basically. Zelensky's right hand guy is the person who negotiates the prisoner swaps.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
There are many things that you can blame shift onto Zaluzhny besides the big one the failed counterattack. He probably had a hand in planning the Krynky operation (although keep feeding men across the river for this long when it became apparent that its not making progress inland may not be a Zaluzhny idea), and with the impending fall of Avdiivka the timing may work out too to lay that blame on him.

I personally think the really big one, the failure of the counteroffensive being blamed on Zaluzhny insisting that not all 10 brigades be concentrated in a single direction but instead spread out into 3 separate direction is unfair. Sure the 3 pronged attack didn't work, but there isn't a lot of evidence to support if AFU focused all of that into a single thrust at Tokmak that it would fair any better.
 
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