The War in the Ukraine

Hitomi said:

That is quite informative I didn't even know the R-77 was produced in Ukraine.

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The R-77 missile was made in the Artem factory in Kiev. But the active radar unit for it was made in Russia by Agat.
The export versions of the R-77 that India and China bought came from that factory in Ukraine.
The Artem factory in Ukraine also used to make the R-27 missile.

The R-77-1 probably has different characteristics from the R-77 because of this. It is basically a new production missile. One of the changes is it has longer range than the original version.

gelgoog said:

In theory they could be produced in other factories. The ever increasing production of Geran loitering munitions also reduces the need to use cruise missiles.

Ukrainian intelligence thought that Russia couldn't manufacture any more cruise missiles when the conflict started. Because the jet engines for the Soviet cruise missiles used to be manufactured in Ukraine. Except Russia made a crash program and developed their own jet engine for cruise missiles. Putting it into mass production. Making them in numbers unheard of before for such engines.

Russia also recently announced they have designed a new low cost jet engine. This might be used in the jet powered version of the Geran loitering munition.

The R-77 air to air missile also used to be made in Ukraine. After the coup in Ukraine in 2014 the Russians made their own production facilities for it and made it in huge numbers. It went into service the year right before the conflict started in 2021. Back then a lot of people didn't believe Shoigu's report of purchases of R-77-1 air to air missiles and cruise missiles. Even I thought there was a typo in the press release somewhere. Well not anymore.

Another thing which the Ukrainian intelligence thought the Russians wouldn't be able to manufacture is Krasnopol artillery rounds. Because the sensor unit used to be made in Ukraine. Well now it is made in Russia as well. And Russia recently announced the start of mass production of Krasnopol-M2.

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Their entire counter offensive was based on the intelligence that Russians would drop arms and run away on the sight of Bradleys etc.

Probably in Russian interest to not hit Ukrainian intelligence CnC at this point.

HighGround said:

What comes around goes around.

Though I have to say, the artillery bombardment of Belgorod seems purely punitive with no military purpose of any kind. Perhaps this will force Russia to send more assets to cover Belgorod, but I find that unlikely.

On another note, I've heard on the recent Russian Contingency episode that the Excalibur guided artillery round has a very poor effectiveness. I'm guessing it is easily jammed by Russian EW or something.

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It also feels to me destroying that Soviet era landing ship was more symbolic than strategic. The ship played no part in the campaign, has zero Kaliber launch capability and isn't/can't be used to transfer cargo between Crimea and the mainland. It would have been more strategic if the very port and docks were targeted. So for the cost of a useless asset, the Ukrainians lost two modified Su-24 and their trained crews, drones and missiles that were used as decoys to distract the air defenses.

As for GPS, there's always some inherent inaccuracy even from natural conditions as radio signals are bounces and interfered by natural weather, ionosphere and space weather conditions. Then on top of that, the battlefield generates a great degree of interference whether it's intended EW or not, and even from friendly sources. The EW takes what's there then adds and pushes that past the border.

Tam said:

It also feels to me destroying that Soviet era landing ship was more symbolic than strategic. The ship played no part in the campaign, has zero Kaliber launch capability and isn't/can't be used to transfer cargo between Crimea and the mainland. It would have been more strategic if the very port and docks were targeted. So for the cost of a useless asset, the Ukrainians lost two modified Su-24 and their trained crews, drones and missiles that were used as decoys to distract the air defenses.

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Pretty decent sized fireball for a supposedly empty ship.

tankphobia said:

Pretty decent sized fireball for a supposedly empty ship.

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Fireball wasn't from the ship but a warehouse nearby. That warehouse was probably the more valuable and far more decent target. Russia regularly hits Odessa port infrastructure including similar warehouses, gantries, etc., with Gerans and cruise missiles, which leads to shutting down the grain trade. Without the overseas grain trade, Ukraine GDP drops, can't pay government employees, services to troops and mercenaries to buying parts for FPV drones, requiring foreign donations instead to keep afloat.

A landing ship --- and there's plenty you can study in the Naval threads --- isn't a ship that can be used to efficiently transport large amounts of cargo if you have any idea what the anatomy of different ship types are and their purposes would look like. Why would the Russians transport ammunition through a boat when they can do it through the Zaporozhye land bridge? If stuff is coming from Iran, then that stuff is shipped within one port of the Caspian sea from the Iranian side to the Russian side and would not involve the Black Sea. The rain of Gerans on Odessa just today and yesterday, likely fired from Odessa tells you the ship has no part in the Geran transport. Such drones, particularly the Dark Gerans, would have been made in Russia and shipped through the land bridge on trucks and rail.

In the first place, strikes against the Crimea should have tried to target the launching sites of Gerans and Oniks or their storage depots and management sites to have any strategic and tactical value.


On news from the front,

The New Year starts on the Dniepr with a FAB-1500 yes no mistake One Five Oh Oh, hitting a Ukrainian deployment points in the right bank of the Dniepr. These deployment points are where Ukrainian forces would concentrate before being transported across the river to the Krynki beachhead.


We would probably see the videos later but for now, it's been a banner day for Lancets in the Dniepr, killing two a MSTA-B, two M777, and an M109 Paladin, while counterbattery took out two Ukrainian 2S1 Gvozdika. A warehouse was also destroyed.


Gerans hit some museum in Lviv that commemorates a Ukrainian that joined the SS in WW2.


FH-70 howitzer gets Krasnopoled in South Donetsk.


ATGM from the 58th SPN Brigade hits a Ukrainian stronghold somewhere in South Donetsk.

Grad salvo against Ukrainian positions on the right bank of the Dniepr.


Kalmius artillery brigade takes out Ukrainian artillery via Krasnopol fired from a MSTA-B.


Another Geran or Gerans struck the University of Dublayany where Bandera studied 100 years ago.


According to the Ukrainians, Russians fired 90 Gerans, making this the biggest wave ever.


FAB landing somewhere in South Donetsk.

Tam said:

Fireball wasn't from the ship but a warehouse nearby. That warehouse was probably the more valuable and far more decent target. Russia regularly hits Odessa port infrastructure including similar warehouses, gantries, etc., with Gerans and cruise missiles, which leads to shutting down the grain trade. Without the overseas grain trade, Ukraine GDP drops, can't pay government employees, services to troops and mercenaries to buying parts for FPV drones, requiring foreign donations instead to keep afloat.

A landing ship --- and there's plenty you can study in the Naval threads --- isn't a ship that can be used to efficiently transport large amounts of cargo if you have any idea what the anatomy of different ship types are and their purposes would look like. Why would the Russians transport ammunition through a boat when they can do it through the Zaporozhye land bridge? If stuff is coming from Iran, then that stuff is shipped within one port of the Caspian sea from the Iranian side to the Russian side and would not involve the Black Sea. The rain of Gerans on Odessa just today and yesterday, likely fired from Odessa tells you the ship has no part in the Geran transport. Such drones, particularly the Dark Gerans, would have been made in Russia and shipped through the land bridge on trucks and rail.

In the first place, strikes against the Crimea should have tried to target the launching sites of Gerans and Oniks or their storage depots and management sites to have any strategic and tactical value.

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Just to highlight this point, the Ukrainians allegedly claim that they were transporting Shahed.

Regarding the transport of ammunition via landing ships, the Russians had 10 ships of this type to carry out the transport of ammunition to the Crimean Peninsula, after the strikes by the Ukrainians on the bridges, including previously the explosion of the Kerch bridge, the Russians used these ships for transporting ammunition, in addition to the transport ferries themselves.

I think it is very likely that the Russians are still using these ships for logistical transport as it is a supporting complement to Russian logistics in the south. However, I agree with you, it is still a long way from being a strategic target.

Sinnavuuty said:

Just to highlight this point, the Ukrainians allegedly claim that they were transporting Shahed.

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Regarding the transport of ammunition via landing ships, the Russians had 10 ships of this type to carry out the transport of ammunition to the Crimean Peninsula, after the strikes by the Ukrainians on the bridges, including previously the explosion of the Kerch bridge, the Russians used these ships for transporting ammunition, in addition to the transport ferries themselves.

I think it is very likely that the Russians are still using these ships for logistical transport as it is a supporting complement to Russian logistics in the south. However, I agree with you, it is still a long way from being a strategic target.

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The Gerans at this point are Russian made. They sport a new Russian made engine, which deliver a different pitch from the Iranian ones; a new HE FRAG warhead with tungsten balls, previously falsely identified as thermobaric; and a new dark coating that's allegedly radar reflective and also makes it harder to spot at night.

Makes no geographical sense to transport it through the Sea of Azov when the production of the Geran drones are likely much more to the North in Russia. There's no connection to Iran from the Sea of Azov or the Black Sea other than that canal which is too small for the landing ship. And there's an entire country called Turkey that inconveniently sits between Crimea and Iran.

Just yesterday Ukraine reported the biggest wave of Geran drones to hit the country, a record breaking 90. Many targets were in Odessa and all the way to Lyiv were hit.

This exercise of hitting the landing ship appear in no way to hinder the Russian ability to launch Gerans from Crimea and Zaporozhye.

Tam said:

The Gerans at this point are Russian made. They sport a new Russian made engine, which deliver a different pitch from the Iranian ones; a new HE FRAG warhead with tungsten balls, previously falsely identified as thermobaric; and a new dark coating that's allegedly radar reflective and also makes it harder to spot at night.

Makes no geographical sense to transport it through the Sea of Azov when the production of the Geran drones are likely much more to the North in Russia. There's no connection to Iran from the Sea of Azov or the Black Sea other than that canal which is too small for the landing ship. And there's an entire country called Turkey that inconveniently sits between Crimea and Iran.

Just yesterday Ukraine reported the biggest wave of Geran drones to hit the country, a record breaking 90. Many targets were in Odessa and all the way to Lyiv were hit.

This exercise of hitting the landing ship appear in no way to hinder the Russian ability to launch Gerans from Crimea and Zaporozhye.

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I also found this news a bit confusing, getting the same thought as you. The only conclusion I reached was that they possibly use the landing ships to transport Geran-1/2 to Crimea, especially because the transport of Iranian-made Shahed, if done, will still be sent via the Caspian Sea or by shipping air Transport.

If Geran-1/2 is produced in the north of the country, shipments will be sent either by VKS transport aircraft or by rail to Krasnodai/Rostov. Transport could also be carried out by landing ships, helping to complement logistics for Crimea.

Claim of destruction of a Himars launcher:

The Ukrainian Armed Forces used for the first time a new drone capable of launching large quantities of cluster munitions.

The Ukrainian “Backfire” drone from the Angry Birds unit dropped a large number of cluster munitions on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in the Northern Military District zone.

We hope that in the near future our drone manufacturers will develop and create similar machines.

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The Ukrainian naval drones that have already caused so many headaches for Russians have undergone an important upgrade, receiving multiple rocket launchers. In this video we see a naval drone firing its rockets. Through this improvement, drones no longer need to directly hit ships to cause direct damage.