It's way more compact than a Loran-C sytem like the Russian Chayka. Is it only a line of sight system ?
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Possibly?. Size seems to be closer to the SHORAN who was a shorter ranged and a help for bombing so maybe is a similar role?.
Footage of the strike of the Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile in Ukraine has been published. The rocket's speed is enormous, about 14,000 kilometers per hour. At the final stage of the flight, the missile reduces its speed, this is done so that it can work as an active radar homing head for the missile. Without reducing the speed, under conditions of plasma formation, it is impossible for the rocket to receive satellite navigation data. The impact of the Kinzhal missile is also shown in slow motion, otherwise it is difficult to see; the video was filmed by a resident of Kyiv.
Ukrainians are shelling Belgorod again and tried to strike Crimean bridge with SS.
The real question, will Russia has enough steam to TWK them again.
I wonder what it takes for Pooter to harden his heart and order strikes on water treatment plants, dams, TPPs, bridges and sanitation points.
The real question, will Russia has enough steam to TWK them again.
I wonder what it takes for Pooter to harden his heart and order strikes on water treatment plants, dams, TPPs, bridges and sanitation points.
What is "TWK"? I keep seeing this term pasted around among pro-Russian accounts.
Kharkov is probably going to be a major battlefield once Russia manages to subdue Kupyansk at least.
Kharkov is probably going to be a major battlefield once Russia manages to subdue Kupyansk at least.
Factory plant Mayak is in charge of producing weapons, shells and mortars, now making drones. Three bomb shelters are responsible for the storage of such. Now targets of Kinzhal hits. Ukrainian general staff claims shooting down all Kinzhals but obviously the pictures don't say the same thing.
Other areas of the city were struck, including the production plant of the Mineral-U radar. Another explosion takes out a microcircuits factory.
[What is the Mineral radar? They're the dome on top of what you see on the Sovremenny class destroyers and many Soviet corvettes like the Molniy, as well as on Chinese ships like the 052B The radar was copied by the Chinese as the Type 366, and used on every 052C/D/B refit/Sov refit and on every 054A. They provide over the horizon geolocation and targeting for antiship missiles via active and passive modes.]
Drone development and making shop in Kiev was hit. More than just material damage, it may have killed specialists.
Ukrainian force concentration discovered in Avdiivka and the Russians let them have it with massed MLRS fire. From the Russian 114th Brigade.
Ukrainian rocket shot down over waters near Sevastopol.
Nine Ukrainian rockets shot down flying towards Belgorod. Two Tochka-U and seven Ohl rockets.
Russians advance out of Artemovosk and it's northern flank, led by the VDV and the 200th MR Brigade of the Northern Fleet and into Bogdanovka, Kurdryumovka, and west of Chromovo. Not posting pics of dead Ukrainian troops in overrun trenches.
Russians hack into Ukrainian webcams.
Government expenditures exceeded twice of revenues --- Ukraine Ministry of Finance. In addition, foreign aid dried up by three fold according to the finance minister.
Ukrainians are double downing on Krynki by continuing to send artillery and air defense units there. But these are being targeted and destroyed by Lancet strikes.
If you missed this, an example would be this Osa-M unit sent to Kherson but gets knocked out by a Grom missile. As the Grom is an air launched missile, a Kh-38 variant, the Russians still continue to conduct air strikes over the region.
Attempt to shoot down this Geran drone fails.
This attempt is more successful.
Quadcopter bombs a Stryker.
The New Years tally for the destruction of the Ukrainian MIC, according to Russian MoD claims.
"Ministry of Energy of Ukraine: almost 260,000 consumers were served because of the shelling in Kiev, equipment of several substations in the Kiev region was disconnected, the air line was damaged
And now that in Ukraine really after the work of the CCS of Russia.
In Kiev and the region:
- destroyed ZRK Patriot;
- warehouse with AtacMs missiles;
- command post of VSU;
- 9 generals were killed, one of them deputy Zaluzhny;
- 4 command centres and two hotels with mercenaries from Sweden, Denmark, Lithuania and Estonia destroyed;
more than 78 people killed;
about 1,000 rockets for Iris T and NASAMS destroyed.
In Odessa:
- three warehouses and hangar storage of anti-ship missiles and Harpoon installations have been destroyed;
- a huge number of command posts with British and Polish military were destroyed;
- 4 active BND officers and 7 Czech Armed Forces officers killed;
- 2 radar of French production were destroyed.
In Kharkiv region:
- two installations of ZRK Iris T were destroyed;
- 4 Gepard tanks;
- two command centers and about 65 officers.
In Krapivnitsky:
- destroyed warehouse with missiles Storm Shadow. More than 25 missiles;
- two SU-24 and rembaza aircraft."
Ugledar is not forgotten and gets a FAB in it's direction.
Ditched Ukrainian tank gets hit by an FPV drone.
Two destroyed Leopard tanks.
The remains of a Ukrainian GAZ-66 truck carrying ammunition, a victim of an FPV drone. The Ukrainians are short of ammunition as it is, but Russians continue to strike at their logistics.
Other areas of the city were struck, including the production plant of the Mineral-U radar. Another explosion takes out a microcircuits factory.
[What is the Mineral radar? They're the dome on top of what you see on the Sovremenny class destroyers and many Soviet corvettes like the Molniy, as well as on Chinese ships like the 052B The radar was copied by the Chinese as the Type 366, and used on every 052C/D/B refit/Sov refit and on every 054A. They provide over the horizon geolocation and targeting for antiship missiles via active and passive modes.]
Drone development and making shop in Kiev was hit. More than just material damage, it may have killed specialists.
Ukrainian force concentration discovered in Avdiivka and the Russians let them have it with massed MLRS fire. From the Russian 114th Brigade.
Ukrainian rocket shot down over waters near Sevastopol.
Nine Ukrainian rockets shot down flying towards Belgorod. Two Tochka-U and seven Ohl rockets.
Russians advance out of Artemovosk and it's northern flank, led by the VDV and the 200th MR Brigade of the Northern Fleet and into Bogdanovka, Kurdryumovka, and west of Chromovo. Not posting pics of dead Ukrainian troops in overrun trenches.
Russians hack into Ukrainian webcams.
Government expenditures exceeded twice of revenues --- Ukraine Ministry of Finance. In addition, foreign aid dried up by three fold according to the finance minister.
Ukrainians are double downing on Krynki by continuing to send artillery and air defense units there. But these are being targeted and destroyed by Lancet strikes.
If you missed this, an example would be this Osa-M unit sent to Kherson but gets knocked out by a Grom missile. As the Grom is an air launched missile, a Kh-38 variant, the Russians still continue to conduct air strikes over the region.
Attempt to shoot down this Geran drone fails.
This attempt is more successful.
Quadcopter bombs a Stryker.
The New Years tally for the destruction of the Ukrainian MIC, according to Russian MoD claims.
"Ministry of Energy of Ukraine: almost 260,000 consumers were served because of the shelling in Kiev, equipment of several substations in the Kiev region was disconnected, the air line was damaged
And now that in Ukraine really after the work of the CCS of Russia.
In Kiev and the region:
- destroyed ZRK Patriot;
- warehouse with AtacMs missiles;
- command post of VSU;
- 9 generals were killed, one of them deputy Zaluzhny;
- 4 command centres and two hotels with mercenaries from Sweden, Denmark, Lithuania and Estonia destroyed;
more than 78 people killed;
about 1,000 rockets for Iris T and NASAMS destroyed.
In Odessa:
- three warehouses and hangar storage of anti-ship missiles and Harpoon installations have been destroyed;
- a huge number of command posts with British and Polish military were destroyed;
- 4 active BND officers and 7 Czech Armed Forces officers killed;
- 2 radar of French production were destroyed.
In Kharkiv region:
- two installations of ZRK Iris T were destroyed;
- 4 Gepard tanks;
- two command centers and about 65 officers.
In Krapivnitsky:
- destroyed warehouse with missiles Storm Shadow. More than 25 missiles;
- two SU-24 and rembaza aircraft."
Ugledar is not forgotten and gets a FAB in it's direction.
Ditched Ukrainian tank gets hit by an FPV drone.
Two destroyed Leopard tanks.
The remains of a Ukrainian GAZ-66 truck carrying ammunition, a victim of an FPV drone. The Ukrainians are short of ammunition as it is, but Russians continue to strike at their logistics.
TWK - Those Who Know )))
Very interesting development, I wonder how much Leopard-1 fleet is affected
The Ukrainian government is just lying. Their defense ministry admits they can't shoot down the Kh-22 and Kh-32 ballistic missiles. So how can they reliably shoot down the Kinzhal which is much faster at like twice the speed.
Because the Ukrainians attacked Belgorod in the day time, the Russians this time did their attack in the day time as well. So it is much harder to hide the results of the bombardment with people around filming.
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To put the recent missile attacks in context from Konrad Muzyka (Rochan Consulting, Polish OSINT analyst/influencer working with US Army and Kofman via various think-tank connections) - I assume the figures include drones.
Between 11/10/22 and 09/03/23 Russia launched 972 missiles and drones (of which 345 by 15/11). After 09/03/23 it's 745 missiles and drones by 25/12/23.
This is Ukrainian estimate of stocks on 15/11/22
Since then there 1345 missiles and drones were launched and even if only 1/3 of it is missiles other than S-300 then it's ~450 missiles coming out mostly out of Kh-101/55/22, Kalibr and Iskander stocks. However I am skeptical as to the accuracy of initial stock numbers, especially for Kh-555 missiles. Russia bought 575 missiles out of 1612 in Ukraine's possession as part of disarmament agreements, not counting its own stocks, so there must have been more of them than 300, but they do not have the same advantageous characteristics as Kh-101.
In August of 2023 GUR claimed Russia had monthly production rate for August:
Interestingly from publicly available sources we know that Saturn manufactured annually approx. 45-50 engines (TRDD-50 since 2010 and TRDD-50v2 since 2014) for all cruise missiles: Kalibr (3M54 and 3M14), Kh-101 and Kh-59. Kh-555 are remanufactured from Kh-55 with R39-300 engine retained. This production rate was maintained for over a decade.
This means that to achieve the consistent annual production rate for cruise missiles as per 8/23 GUR claim Russia would have to expand production of engines 14-15x i.e. by an order of magnitude. That's impossible because industrial scaling doesn't work like that and we're seeing the contrast between claims and results on every side of this conflict. 3-4x is plausible. 5-6x is exceptional and Russia so far has not exceeded "plausible" in most verifiable categories.
If 60+ monthly rate applies short-term to period of August-December using stockpiled components then it's ~300 new cruise missiles so 3-4 more waves of similar size as the last one. So far I see no obvious (rational) military purpose to such plan so perhaps it is once again some psychological or political play.
This is low-quality clickbait.
Kh-47M2 has top speed of 10Ma which is 3 400m/s. Even at half that speed - at 5Ma typical for Iskander-M or Kh-22 it's 1 700m/s.
iPhone claims max shutter speed of 1/10 000s which would enable max distance blur of 0,17/0,34m per frame at 5/10Ma which is sufficient for high resolution high frame-rate recording.
However what the camera records is EM radiation in visible light spectrum per pixel generated by temperature of medium which is:
The frame-rate of warhead movement doesn't match the framerate of the movement of birds or explosion i.e it is much too slow. Watch any explosion in slow motion to compare.
And that's before I ask how this individual knew to film the target.
There are not enough Kinzhals per attack for luck to be a factor and they are not used against stationary targets - they are used against high value targets like SAM radars. This is also likely why they tend to be shot down more often than not, they are launched directly at Patrot/SAMP-T/ect locations to draw as much fire as possible, because at that speed more missiles are needed for probability of kill. Lower quality munitions like Kh-22/32 are used against other targets, especially that it's not difficult to discern missile type on early warning radar.
Whatever it is, real or fake, it is not a Kinzhal.
Based on what parameters?
Kharkiv is second largest urban area in Ukraine and one that has proven resilient to Russian influence already in 2014. It's hostile territory and Russia can't afford urban battle at this scale. Kharkiv metro area is 3200km2 and 1,7m before war. City proper has 350km2 and 1,4m.
For comparison: the largest urban battle so far was Mariupol which was 244km2 and 430k and Severodonetsk-Lysychansk which were 140km2 and ~200k. Bakhmut was 40km2 and 72k.
To scale:
Mariupol was captured largely by surprise. Severodonetsk took over 6 weeks to capture and Lysychansk took another week in conditions of complete aerial and fires superiority by Russia.
The textbook force ratio attacker:defender for urban combat is 8-10:1
The urban battles that everyone focuses on are battles for minor towns. Kharkiv is urban combat on scale of Mosul or Gaza. And that's leaving aside the state of the front in summer of 2022 where Russia failed to break through the forests and hills along Donets and never approached Kharkiv in full force.
The only way to fight against a defender in a city this large is to completely surround the defending force. So the overwhelming majority of current deployed force will have to be moved to Kharkiv to sustain the operation. That's completely unfeasible. Just calculate the rate of losses to vehicles based on the performance of minefields in the south in 2023 and what average casualty rate urban combat produced in this war. There's a reason why Russian forces withdrew from Kiyv by end of March 2022 and I even made a post here with some of the numbers in the past. That battle would be nothing compared to what happens if the front somehow moves to Kharkiv.
It's one thing to expect Ukraine to agree to some negotiated settlement based on speculative scenarios of future events. It's another to defy fundamentals of land warfare. The fundamental of Soviet/Russian doctrine is that cities are bypassed. For a reason.
Between 11/10/22 and 09/03/23 Russia launched 972 missiles and drones (of which 345 by 15/11). After 09/03/23 it's 745 missiles and drones by 25/12/23.
This is Ukrainian estimate of stocks on 15/11/22
Since then there 1345 missiles and drones were launched and even if only 1/3 of it is missiles other than S-300 then it's ~450 missiles coming out mostly out of Kh-101/55/22, Kalibr and Iskander stocks. However I am skeptical as to the accuracy of initial stock numbers, especially for Kh-555 missiles. Russia bought 575 missiles out of 1612 in Ukraine's possession as part of disarmament agreements, not counting its own stocks, so there must have been more of them than 300, but they do not have the same advantageous characteristics as Kh-101.
In August of 2023 GUR claimed Russia had monthly production rate for August:
- 42 Iskander
- 40 Kh-101
- 20 Kalibr
- 10 Kh-32
- 6+Khinzal
Interestingly from publicly available sources we know that Saturn manufactured annually approx. 45-50 engines (TRDD-50 since 2010 and TRDD-50v2 since 2014) for all cruise missiles: Kalibr (3M54 and 3M14), Kh-101 and Kh-59. Kh-555 are remanufactured from Kh-55 with R39-300 engine retained. This production rate was maintained for over a decade.
This means that to achieve the consistent annual production rate for cruise missiles as per 8/23 GUR claim Russia would have to expand production of engines 14-15x i.e. by an order of magnitude. That's impossible because industrial scaling doesn't work like that and we're seeing the contrast between claims and results on every side of this conflict. 3-4x is plausible. 5-6x is exceptional and Russia so far has not exceeded "plausible" in most verifiable categories.
If 60+ monthly rate applies short-term to period of August-December using stockpiled components then it's ~300 new cruise missiles so 3-4 more waves of similar size as the last one. So far I see no obvious (rational) military purpose to such plan so perhaps it is once again some psychological or political play.
This is low-quality clickbait.
Kh-47M2 has top speed of 10Ma which is 3 400m/s. Even at half that speed - at 5Ma typical for Iskander-M or Kh-22 it's 1 700m/s.
iPhone claims max shutter speed of 1/10 000s which would enable max distance blur of 0,17/0,34m per frame at 5/10Ma which is sufficient for high resolution high frame-rate recording.
However what the camera records is EM radiation in visible light spectrum per pixel generated by temperature of medium which is:
- highly disturbed by any fast object transition, as any movement through medium generates pressure, friction and thermal output, especially one that is shedding a plasma sheath after a long flight at hypersonic speed.
- at gradient with the medium
The frame-rate of warhead movement doesn't match the framerate of the movement of birds or explosion i.e it is much too slow. Watch any explosion in slow motion to compare.
And that's before I ask how this individual knew to film the target.
There are not enough Kinzhals per attack for luck to be a factor and they are not used against stationary targets - they are used against high value targets like SAM radars. This is also likely why they tend to be shot down more often than not, they are launched directly at Patrot/SAMP-T/ect locations to draw as much fire as possible, because at that speed more missiles are needed for probability of kill. Lower quality munitions like Kh-22/32 are used against other targets, especially that it's not difficult to discern missile type on early warning radar.
Whatever it is, real or fake, it is not a Kinzhal.
Based on what parameters?
Kharkiv is second largest urban area in Ukraine and one that has proven resilient to Russian influence already in 2014. It's hostile territory and Russia can't afford urban battle at this scale. Kharkiv metro area is 3200km2 and 1,7m before war. City proper has 350km2 and 1,4m.
For comparison: the largest urban battle so far was Mariupol which was 244km2 and 430k and Severodonetsk-Lysychansk which were 140km2 and ~200k. Bakhmut was 40km2 and 72k.
To scale:
Mariupol was captured largely by surprise. Severodonetsk took over 6 weeks to capture and Lysychansk took another week in conditions of complete aerial and fires superiority by Russia.
The textbook force ratio attacker:defender for urban combat is 8-10:1
The urban battles that everyone focuses on are battles for minor towns. Kharkiv is urban combat on scale of Mosul or Gaza. And that's leaving aside the state of the front in summer of 2022 where Russia failed to break through the forests and hills along Donets and never approached Kharkiv in full force.
The only way to fight against a defender in a city this large is to completely surround the defending force. So the overwhelming majority of current deployed force will have to be moved to Kharkiv to sustain the operation. That's completely unfeasible. Just calculate the rate of losses to vehicles based on the performance of minefields in the south in 2023 and what average casualty rate urban combat produced in this war. There's a reason why Russian forces withdrew from Kiyv by end of March 2022 and I even made a post here with some of the numbers in the past. That battle would be nothing compared to what happens if the front somehow moves to Kharkiv.
It's one thing to expect Ukraine to agree to some negotiated settlement based on speculative scenarios of future events. It's another to defy fundamentals of land warfare. The fundamental of Soviet/Russian doctrine is that cities are bypassed. For a reason.
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