The War in the Ukraine

HighGround said:

How do you know these are "blocking" detachments and not just confusion and mis-identification?

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sheogorath said:

What seems to be the first footage of Ukrainian block troops. A group of Ukranian soldiers retreat from a trench when a group of other Ukranian soldiers in a trench further back open fire on them, wounding several of the retreating soldiers

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/18v1u7d

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1. The "retreating" party from the lower-right corner did shoot back (around 1:00 mark) at the "blockers". That isn't logical for escapee because they just want to get the hell out of there, they know the "blocker" will shoot anyway, shooting back isn't going to help their "escape" but only make things worse like later got granade throw at them.
2. At 2:10 mark, there is a projectile/granade dropped right on to the "blocker" from the top-left corner. The "blocker" did not retreat, so who is bombing them?

taxiya said:

So I think the "blocker" is presumably an Ukrainian detachment defending their trench while under Russian attack from two directions.

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taxiya said:

It looks to me that it is a fight between Russians and Ukrainians.

1. The "retreating" party from the lower-right corner did shoot back (around 1:00 mark) at the "blockers". That isn't logical for escapee because they just want to get the hell out of there, they know the "blocker" will shoot anyway, shooting back isn't going to help their "escape" but only make things worse like later got granade throw at them.
2. At 2:10 mark, there is a projectile/granade dropped right on to the "blocker" from the top-left corner. The "blocker" did not retreat, so who is bombing them?

So I think the "blocker" is presumably an Ukrainian detachment defending their trench while under Russian attack from two directions.

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sheogorath said:

There are two lines of trenches. There are a group of soldiers that quickly withdraw from the first line to the second line, one of them doesn't even have a gun so I seriously doubt they are Russian. This group of soldiers is fired upon by the two soldiers in the second trench line as these soldiers are trying to hide into the trench, which one of the casualties being the gunless soldier.

Later on, one of the soldiers that manage to escape the first trench, climbs out and runs further back, not making any attempt at engaging the original two soldiers, again hinting these are not Russian soldiers, these then opening fire on the soldier running away before getting taken out by an FPV drone.

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Tam said:

Bombing of Belgorod in broad daylight against civilians only serve to infuriate and motivate the Russians further. Messages on bombs, rockets, and shells.

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SlothmanAllen said:

So they built 1,500 tanks this past year? How many cruise missiles do they produce and of what types? How does that compare to NATO?

Just some stats I have from the US for the sake of comparison:

• The US plans to produce a minimum of 6,000 Coyote Kinetic Interceptors of the next five years.
• The US will produce 650 PAC 3MSE per year by 2027 (currently around 200)
• The US will produce 14,000 GMLRS per year by 2027.

I have production numbers for the following munitions, but I don’t know the timeframes in which they are produced (I would imagine something like five years)

• 3,300 Tomahawk Cruise Missiles
• 1,100 PrSM missiles
• 1,650 RIM-162
• 1,980 RIM-116
• 11,550 SDB-II

That’s what I have from my Twitter bookmarks. I’d be interested to see what Russian current production looks like. Also other NATO countries as well.

Some further info:

• LRASM/JASSM production should be about 1,000 missiles per year by 2024
• Tomahawk production is set to “sextuple” shortly, unfortunately I don’t have a base number to work from. I was able to find a contract award from 2006 that had Tomahawk production at 456 units per year (38 per month) though. At a production rate of 660 per years you could get 3,300 missiles quoted above over five years.

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FriedButter said:

Assuming the translation is correct. This AFU general is claiming that in the city of Korolev, Moscow is producing 1321 cruise missiles this year. Rather a specific number down to a digit. Does anyone else know if there are other factories in Russia that produces cruise missiles?

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gelgoog said:

In theory they could be produced in other factories. The ever increasing production of Geran loitering munitions also reduces the need to use cruise missiles.

Ukrainian intelligence thought that Russia couldn't manufacture any more cruise missiles when the conflict started. Because the jet engines for the Soviet cruise missiles used to be manufactured in Ukraine. Except Russia made a crash program and developed their own jet engine for cruise missiles. Putting it into mass production. Making them in numbers unheard of before for such engines.

Russia also recently announced they have designed a new low cost jet engine. This might be used in the jet powered version of the Geran loitering munition.

The R-77 air to air missile also used to be made in Ukraine. After the coup in Ukraine in 2014 the Russians made their own production facilities for it and made it in huge numbers. It went into service the year right before the conflict started in 2021. Back then a lot of people didn't believe Shoigu's report of purchases of R-77-1 air to air missiles and cruise missiles. Even I thought there was a typo in the press release somewhere. Well not anymore.

Another thing which the Ukrainian intelligence thought the Russians wouldn't be able to manufacture is Krasnopol artillery rounds. Because the sensor unit used to be made in Ukraine. Well now it is made in Russia as well. And Russia recently announced the start of mass production of Krasnopol-M2.

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