The War in the Ukraine

ansy1968 said:

Thanks for the info, the reason why I ask the question if the Russian didn't incorporate the whole of Ukraine (except for Galicia) then it defeat the purpose of SMO. Russia will be in the quagmire if they let a Ukraine state exist. My thesis as many had stated here, Ukraine is facing a demographic problem, with many leaving and may never come back, those who stayed with economic situation as worse as they are, maybe joining Russia looks attractive than Joining the EU.

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Well, I think a deal similar to the one signed with Finland after the Continuation War might still be possible. Ukraine concedes even more territory, probably all the way to the Dnieper, Ukraine is made a neutral country, their armed forces are disarmed of all heavy weapons, and Russia places a permanent military force right next to Kiev and possibly other Ukrainian cities. But the Russian Duma is discussing going way beyond that.

TK3600 said:

Bro, you forgot what led to this in first place: disintegration of Soviet Union. Giving up full control for a friendly regime is what led to this mess in first place. It would be foolish to make the same mistake twice.

If Russia cannot obtain unconditional surrender of Ukraine, then it must compromise. If it manage, full annexation is 100% the best pick.

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If Ukraine was to remain as a country there would be Russian troops permanently stationed there and they would have to give up their heavy weapons. The only weapons they would be allowed to maintain would be small arms for policing duties.

Tootensky said:

The idea of full anexation could maybe work long term, but in the short term it would be a PR nightmare - those western territories would turn into a festering wound, with sabotage, protests, marches, western interference. And since it's "your home country" now, the pro-west saboteurs would have a free pass not only in their region, but would be able to spread their sabotage all over Russia proper. There would be shootings, assassinations, bombings. Look at how much trouble Chechenya caused in the 90s and 2000s. And this would be a lot more intense - bigger population, more weapons, NATO interference, and a lot bigger area to control.

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So you think NATO didn't interfere in the war in Chechnya. You are quite naive. Chechnya's rebellion was being funded by the Gulf States, it had foreign fighters from Saudi Arabia and other countries fighting in it similar to what happened in Syria.

These people and weapons supplies were funneled in from NATO airbases in Turkey. I remember reading reports of the Russians tracking transport helicopters flying from Turkey to Chechnya all the time back in the Second Chechen War.

The only difference is that, much like in Syria, they had to maintain plausible deniability, so they used weapons fenced by the CIA instead of just giving them NATO weapons outright.

TK3600 said:

I can't believe it. After 3 years they finally activated strategic bombardment?

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These Russian bombers are launching cruise missiles. They have done it before several times.

plawolf said:

Or losses the ability to fight. If the west tires of this war, it will end irrespective of how much the Ukrainians want to keep fighting.

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I don't think the West will stop supplying Ukraine, regardless of what they are saying.

Ukraine is a huge cash cow for the American MIC. There's practically no political cost to continuing the war.

Russian forces received over 1,500 tanks, 22,000 drones in 2023 — Defense Ministry papers
The Armed forces have also received over 12,000 automobile vehicles

MOSCOW, December 29. /TASS/. In 2023, the Russian Armed Forces received over 1,500 tanks and 22,000 drones, according to Russian Defense Ministry end-of-year papers, obtained by TASS.
"Sufficiency level: over 84%. Shipped: over 1,500 tanks, over 2,200 armored combat vehicles, over 1,400 rocket and artillery vehicles, over 22,000 unmanned aerial vehicles," the document reads.
The Armed forces have also received over 12,000 automobile vehicles, with over 10% - 1,400 vehicles - armored.

gelgoog said:

So you think NATO didn't interfere in the war in Chechnya. You are quite naive. Chechnya's rebellion was being funded by the Gulf States, it had foreign fighters from Saudi Arabia and other countries fighting in it similar to what happened in Syria.

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These people and weapons supplies were funneled in from NATO airbases in Turkey. I remember reading reports of the Russians tracking transport helicopters flying from Turkey to Chechnya all the time back in the Second Chechen War.

The only difference is that, much like in Syria, they had to maintain plausible deniability, so they used weapons fenced by the CIA instead of just giving them NATO weapons outright.

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I'm not suggesting anything of the sort. But there is a huge difference in opportunity for NATO to support Chechenya in the Caucasus, with no NATO bases bordering the area, and the Ukraine, sharing a long border with NATO, bigger population etc.. And then there's the difference of attitudes between today and the 1990s "thaw" era, when not many people gave that much of a damn about what Russia was up to.

solarz said:

I don't think the West will stop supplying Ukraine, regardless of what they are saying.

Ukraine is a huge cash cow for the American MIC. There's practically no political cost to continuing the war.

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It is also a good excuse to try to continue weakening Russia in the medium term, both economically and militarily... for the US it has been very cheap

At least the Soviet Union did shoot down American planes, even in its zones of influence, such as Cuba... Russia greatly fears a direct conflict with the United States or NATO and is very permissive in the overflight of reconnaissance and electronic warfare aircraft near or over its territories, especially in the Black Sea and Crimea

gelgoog said:

Russian forces received over 1,500 tanks, 22,000 drones in 2023 — Defense Ministry papers

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If we take into account that a large percentage of this receipt of tanks and armored vehicles is based on the reincorporation of stored equipment, it seems to me that it says a lot about Russia's military industrial capacity today....

Those numbers do not compensate for the losses (at least in tanks), perhaps they do not compensate for the capabilities and technology of the tanks lost, with tanks returned to service... The Russians still do not say how many new tanks they have been able to produce in their factories this year, And the reason is obvious...

As for drones, taking into account information that both sides can use 10,000 drones per month (the majority are suicide drones), 22,000 drones per year, it does not seem to be a significant amount.

Sheleah said:

It is also a good excuse to try to continue weakening Russia in the medium term, both economically and militarily... for the US it has been very cheap

At least the Soviet Union did shoot down American planes, even in its zones of influence, such as Cuba... Russia greatly fears a direct conflict with the United States or NATO and is very permissive in the overflight of reconnaissance and electronic warfare aircraft near or over its territories, especially in the Black Sea and Crimea



If we take into account that a large percentage of this receipt of tanks and armored vehicles is based on the reincorporation of stored equipment, it seems to me that it says a lot about Russia's military industrial capacity today....

Those numbers do not compensate for the losses (at least in tanks), perhaps they do not compensate for the capabilities and technology of the tanks lost, with tanks returned to service... The Russians still do not say how many new tanks they have been able to produce in their factories this year, And the reason is obvious...

As for drones, taking into account information that both sides can use 10,000 drones per month (the majority are suicide drones), 22,000 drones per year, it does not seem to be a significant amount.

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Yes, man, Russia is finished, especially with GDP growing above all forecasts, military production surpassing that of NATO and ignoring sanctions, bans, threats and blackmail from the West.

And that “weakness” of Russia came cheap to the West, it only cost the USA a record deficit of 2 trillion dollars, debt out of control, Europe losing its competitiveness to China... Excellent.

Going to skip the part where Ukraine got hit with the biggest missile wave so far to the frontline goodies.

Destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV somewhere in the front.


Russian quadcopter bombs Ukrainian boat used for transport to and from Krynki. The boats are, the most finite resource compared to humans and weapons thrown there. Once the boats are all destroyed, doesn't matter how much men or machines the Ukrainians, they can't transport them.


Ukrainian howitzer at the moment it's being rearmed with a new supply of ammunition, got hit by Russian counterbattery fire in Kherson.


In Kherson, Stryker gets hit by Lancet.


New batch of MSTA-S (modernized M1 and brand new M2) along with refitted and modernized Tyulpan 240mm self propelled mortars delivered to the Russian armed forces.


TRML-4D AESA search radar for IRIS-T got Iskandered in the Kherson direction. I think it's IRIS, not Patriot, that shot down the Su-34.


Ukrainian towed howitzer gets hit by Russian counterbattery fire. It's probably a MSTA-B according to other Russian channels. As usual "counterbattery" fire from the Russian side is code for 'Krasnopoled'.


Product 305 LMUR in action again striking a Ukrainian troop shelter in Novomikhailovka.


Ukrainian fortifications in and around Avdiivka getting Krasnopoled by the Kalmius artillery brigade.


BMP-2's 30mm cannon spraying Ukrainian positions as Russian troops attack.


ZALA introduces Product 55. If you remember Product 52 was the Lancet. 55 looks like a scaled down short ranged version.


And ZALA has new promo material for the Lancet that features the wide winged version for long range strikes.


VDV trooper fires Kornet ATGM at the coast of the Dnipro. The target is a Ukrainian observation post that's been used to launch drones and correct artillery fire.


Some kind of Ukrainian drones shot down over the Dniepr.


Situation report on the fighting of the Dniepr reports IRIS-T destroyed by Gerans (maybe the launchers this time) and a D-30 howitzer getting knocked out in counterbattery, along with a Stryker (this one by Lancet).

Ukrainian shelter gets hit by Russian artillery.


Ukrainian shopping mall got smashed. Is this suspected of storing ammunition or being a place to manufacture drones? The Russians are hunting the defense (or drone) industry of Ukraine.



Overturned Maxxpro

solarz said:

I don't think the West will stop supplying Ukraine, regardless of what they are saying.

Ukraine is a huge cash cow for the American MIC. There's practically no political cost to continuing the war.

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Are you forgetting all the budget fights in the US legislature because of Ukrainian war funding?

The US MIC specialises in high value low volume production, whereas the war in Ukraine is chewing through everything in their catalogue at many times the replacement rates.

Not only are western arms getting used up and destroyed at unprecedented rates in Ukraine, it is also massively damaging to the reputations of western equipment makers to have their wares destroyed so easily and on such large scale by ‘inferior’ Russian kit.

Simply put, Ukraine is a fight western MIC isn’t geared up for nor particularly interested in fighting in since their equipment isn’t fighting hopelessly outmatched opponents.

The other major factor to consider is competition. The US MIC has a very good racket going on where they have a politically captive market and they can make stuff at their pace and sells it to the US military at a price they themselves set.

Ukraine is putting massive pressure on the US MIC to deliver stuff at a rate orders of magnitudes higher than what they can achieve. That is creating a massive and growing gulf between demand and supply. Which is a fundamental threat to the established big boys of the US MIC as it is creating a massive opening for new entrants into their walled garden private playgrounds.

If the war drags on for another year or two, how long before necessity forces Washington to award a big contract to a foreign manufacturer to plug the growing hole their domestic suppliers cannot meet?

But much of that might be moot, because the US MIC is already tapped out in terms of many core supplies and the US is making up the shortfall with the US military’s own reserves. How long until the US military starts to run out themselves? You think the Russians will conveniently call a ceasefire to wait for western MIC production to catch up?

What happens when core munitions and equipment starts to run out? Ukrainian casualties increase and they loose ground, as is happening already.

At the core of the issue is not the west’s desire to supply Ukraine, but its actual ability to do so. The US is finding out the hard way that their infinite dollars cheat doesn’t mean much when there are only finite physical assets it can manufacture, and that it cannot ramp up production as it could in its hay day.

Ukranian soldier pranks another one with Down Syndrome. No idea of date or location

quim said:

Yes, man, Russia is finished, especially with GDP growing above all forecasts, military production surpassing that of NATO and ignoring sanctions, bans, threats and blackmail from the West.

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Likewise, it has no relation to the numbers of tanks delivered to the Russian army... most tanks taken from open-air warehouses, few very few new ones, and the numbers of drones are still low for the needs.

The Russian GDP should grow as the country is at war, reconditioning old material to replace the more modern ones that have been melted down in Ukraine should not be a great contribution to the GDP