The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
cn_habs
Junior Member
It's obviously unrealistic in the short to medium term. Too much animosity has built up since last Feb between the 2 brothers.
It may take quite a few years for Russian forces to gradually take Odessa and Kharkiv.
if any Chinese volunteer survive this they should be hired by some Chinese military academy to share experience
I think the Russians original idea was to make the Donbass Republics independent regions kind of like Abkhazia and South Ossetia and ensure Ukraine's neutral status. Similar to the playbook they did in Georgia. But after Ukraine didn't prove to be pliable enough to accept that, they just did referendums on Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia joining the Russian Federation. And they have been accepted in.
In case you don't know, one of the things Putin changed in the 2020 Russian Constitution amendments, is that the text explicitly forbids ceding Russian territory. This was to basically lock in Crimea forever. But it also applies to those regions. So there is no way Ukraine will get any territory that has been annexed back unless they fight for it and get it back. Which seems increasingly unlikely.
Even if it wasn't for the Constitution forbidding it, there is little chance that Russia will give the land bridge to Crimea and control over the Sea of Azov area back to Ukraine after spilling so much blood for it.
I think they will go as far as required. The longer that Ukraine continues fighting the more physical territory they will lose including possibly their statehood. If you listen to what Putin said he basically now thinks it should all be part of the Russian Federation. Which is different from what he said when the conflict started when he accepted something similar to the situation of Austria vs Germany. The only area of Ukraine which they concede could be not a part of Russia is Galicia in the West. But I wouldn't discount they even getting that.
As much as people talk about the Kievan Rus, it isn't like it was the first city in the Rus. Novgorod was part of the Rus before Kiev was. The Rurik dynasty started out in Novgorod when they were supposedly invited to be the rulers there and only later conquered Kiev. The Rurik dynasty was of Norse blood and they came from Scandinavia.
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It is economicaly too hard to integrate too much Ukrainian land at the same time. Right now Russia are close to optimal size of territory that it can integrate in around 5-10 years. Maybe Kramatorsk and Slavyansk so DNR would be in its administrative borders, but it is probably maximum that Russia would want to keep after war end.
Even without combat damage. Ukrainian territory are so badly damaged by mismanagement of infrastructure by Ukrainian government that it require billions of investment.
Difficult to integrate? This is not EU4 lol. Putin's Russia was equally badly managed at time he took over. Nothing new for him. Couple Chinese reconstruction is all it takes. Stuff like electrical grid all compatible. Language is compatible. All under USSR 30 years ago. Ethnically compatible. Very easy to integrate compared to foriegn lands.
Of course that assumes Russia get there in first place. They can, but will take quite a while.
I am of the opinion they should take as much they can, whole Ukraine if they can manage. Already took all sanctions, paid all blood. The relation damage cannot be repaired to secure neutrality, may as well end it all. Why leave a small country that hate you forever? End it so the story is over.
If taking whole Ukraine, the military operation will take another 5 years assuming they fight to last men, but no longer. It will likely be shorter.
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@tank3487 @gelgoog @cn_habs Thanks for the info, the reason why I ask the question if the Russian didn't incorporate the whole of Ukraine (except for Galicia) then it defeat the purpose of SMO. Russia will be in the quagmire if they let a Ukraine state exist. My thesis as many had stated here, Ukraine is facing a demographic problem, with many leaving and may never come back, those who stayed with economic situation as worse as they are, maybe joining Russia looks attractive than Joining the EU.
And with it maybe maintaining order in occupied land is attainable as Putin indicate that he is not interested in Galicia and let Poland, Romania and Hungary sort out this problem for him (a strategic masterstroke if you ask me, let Nato members fight among themselves)
And with it maybe maintaining order in occupied land is attainable as Putin indicate that he is not interested in Galicia and let Poland, Romania and Hungary sort out this problem for him (a strategic masterstroke if you ask me, let Nato members fight among themselves)
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My thinking is once you pull the trigger, you go all in. You don't do half-jobs.
Since Russia has incurred all the costs, and damage of attacking Ukraine, it might as well as go for maximalistic goals. Does anyone really believe that the US and EU will honor their promises if Russia goes for some kind of peace/negotiated settlement...
Especially with Ukraine's manpower so seriously depleted, I would seriously go all in and gobble it up. Western countries can act all outraged, and send all equipment as they want but if Ukraine doesn't have enough boots on the ground, Russia will eat it whole in one bite.
At the very least, the coastal areas must come under Russian control
Exactly bro, the current condition present itself to do just that as Putin will never trust the collective west again.
