The War in the Ukraine

_killuminati_

Senior Member
Registered Member
Ukraine's population is 40 million. Assuming a quarter of that is men fit for combat duty, that's still a pool of 10 million recruits.

So even if their irrecoverable casualty is one million, that's still well below replenishment levels.

Let's not forget that the Soviet Union suffered 27 million dead against in WW2 with a population of 200 million.
Also don't forget that +6 million Ukranians left the country and did not return (+15% of the population). Even more harrowing circumstance is this,
Ukraine_2023_population_pyramid.svg.png
 

APT96

Just Hatched
Registered Member
How has Ukraine been able to repeatedly hit the Black Sea fleet? Is it operational failures, Russian air defence equipment not as good as the marketing, or just an inevitability that any AD network can't completely stop everything?
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
How has Ukraine been able to repeatedly hit the Black Sea fleet? Is it operational failures, Russian air defence equipment not as good as the marketing, or just an inevitability that any AD network can't completely stop everything?
No AD network can stop all attacks. And even with the best networks you have to decide where you want to concentrate your AD assets. You can't cover everything everywhere against any size of attack. It is just too expensive.
The point is to blunt the attacks until they become not that strategically significant.
It is also much harder to track and destroy a small missile than an aircraft. Especially if it is flying at low altitude.

Losing an old Cold War era amphibious assault ship at this point is probably a least concern. And it won't cause much of a dent on military transport capability since the Russians have multiple ways to supply Crimea by now. They have the Crimean bridge, they have the railway and highway from Russia going through Melitopol. And they will start building another railway along the Azov coast next year. They also have the ports, several of them, and they have the airport.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
How has Ukraine been able to repeatedly hit the Black Sea fleet? Is it operational failures, Russian air defence equipment not as good as the marketing, or just an inevitability that any AD network can't completely stop everything?
The black sea fleet is a small element that doesn't have any air defense ships, leaving all of its defensive capability in either by parking out of range or through ground based air defense.

While capable, these can't make up for the inevitability of time and numbers. War has now gone on for 2 years. We have seen in just a few weeks of the red sea blockade starting multiple hits through air defense already, and these are against fleet elements that should have some organic air defense capability, using much older weapons than even ones from the Ukraine.

The job of air defense is to slow the tide of damage until a rate where losses become easily replaceable.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Some of the Black Sea Fleet ships do have some air defense capabilities. Like the Admiral Grigorovich frigates (naval Buk) and the Karakurt corvettes (naval Pantsir). But yeah it isn't enough. The main air defense ship was the Moskva cruiser but now it's gone.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Some of the Black Sea Fleet ships do have some air defense capabilities. Like the Admiral Grigorovich frigates and the Karakurt corvettes.
But yeah it isn't enough. The main air defense ship was the Moskva cruiser but now it's gone.
Slava class aren't exactly world class anti air combatants either.

The 2 premier navies in the world would not have considered a single Slava class equivalent as a reliable anti air element.
 

_killuminati_

Senior Member
Registered Member
How has Ukraine been able to repeatedly hit the Black Sea fleet? Is it operational failures, Russian air defence equipment not as good as the marketing, or just an inevitability that any AD network can't completely stop everything?
If you looked at FlightRadar24 (before March 14, 2023), you'd see USAF continuously flying reconnaissance drones over the Black Sea, as well as other aerial assets (such as the RC-135 Rivet Joint) nearby, around Romania. It's pretty easy to speculate what they are doing here: sharing intelligence with Ukraine.

Since Russia brought down that US drone, USAF no longer reveals it's positions to the public.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Slava class aren't exactly world class anti air combatants either.
The 2 premier navies in the world would not have considered a single Slava class equivalent as a reliable anti air element.
The Slava class was a kludge job even back when it came out. And the Moskva didn't even get a proper mid life refit like the Marshal Ustinov. A lot of people claim the fire extinguishing system in the Moskva hadn't worked properly anymore for a long time and they never bothered to fix it. The Varyag in the Pacific Fleet is basically in the same state as the Moskva was.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
An indication of the quality of training Ukrainian soldiers are getting. This one just threw a grenade at his own people in panic as they were assaulting.

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Kalashnikov announces batch delivery of a new sniper rifle Chukavina to armed forces. Sniper videos are common in Russian Telegram channels but I find it distasteful to post personally.

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Zaluzhny contradicts his own MoD by saying yes the Ukrainian Army has departed from Marinka, although there are still units around the area which is true. He also predicted the capture of Avdiivka in about two or three months.

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Swedish BV-10 all terrain vehicle found destroyed in the Kherson direction.

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North Korean shell for D-20 howitzer.

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Result of the stuck and abandoned PT-91 tank. Looks too far gone now, tracks are lost. I am guessing it got hit by FPV drones while it was stuck.

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Ukrainian tank that hit a mine and left abandoned in the Donbass.

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Ukrainian troops taking fire from AGS-17 and hiding in their dugouts, which were then drone bombed. Courtesy of the 60th Brigade.

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Russian air defense hitting somethings in the Krasnodar region.

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Pakistani shell found in the combat kit of Ukrainian tank.

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Remote mining machine Zemledelie or 'Agriculture' will be turned into a multiple purpose rocket launching machine in 2024. Not just laying mines, it will enable to launch rockets like Uragan to TOS rockets, from a range of 140mm to 220mm. The new machines will be called "Renaissance".

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T-72 and T-72EA gets knocked out by LNG-9 FPV drones from the Sudoplatov Battalion.

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Russians approaching Ivanoske in the Artemovosk direction.

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Ukrainian 2S1 Gvozdika slowly towing an M777 howitzer. Running out of tractors?

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Ukrainian attempt at evacuation did not go well.

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Attempt by this BTR-4 to swim the Dniepr near Krynki did not go well.

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Ukrainian soldiers not happy about the transfer of Markus (popular Ukrainian commander of the 47th who is also outspoken in case you didn't know) and has launched a petition to get him back.

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