The War in the Ukraine

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gelgoog

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sheogorath said:
Seems the UK is violating its own obligations to the MTCR which will open its own can of worms
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Yes. If they get Russia to drop out of the MTCR altogether as retaliation for them breaking it with sales to Ukraine then there will be a massive proliferation of long range cruise missiles. Several countries have tried to get these in the past like Egypt. They didn't get them because of the MTCR.

Maybe Iran will all of a sudden get its Kilo subs upgraded to fire Kalibr cruise missiles. Maybe Russia will dispose of the dozen Cold War era Kilo subs that will be taken out of service soon by selling them to Iran and North Korea all upgraded to fire the Kalibr. Etc.
 
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SomaliUK

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final stroke resulting in a permanent ban!
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Deino

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Stierlitz

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Ukrainian channel Strana:

108 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, traveling home for a week's leave from near Avdiivka, died on the way.

Ukrainian political scientist Vitaly Bala reported this.

According to his information, in the brigade located near Avdiivka, 108 soldiers were allowed to go home for the Christmas holidays.

They drew lots to see who could leave and those who didn’t were very upset and even some asked to change with them. But no one agreed, because everyone wanted to see their relatives, because they had been “at zero” for about a year.

“Everyone who drew lots got on buses and left, but didn’t get there,” Bala said.

According to the political scientist, there was not a single official report about the death of 108 military personnel.

“I didn’t write, I thought that there would still be some kind of message, mourning, there wasn’t... I don’t know what needs to happen for the current government to stop hiding our losses and start honoring the dead. This cannot continue,” Bala wrote.

Zin Note: Reportedly, the buses were hit by artillery and/or drones.

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Original source:

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Tam

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Large landing ship damaged according to the MoD (looks done for to me), and large explosion likely a fuel depot used for fueling ships. Crimean authorities say one person dead, six people were injured and 6 buildings were damaged. Two AFU Su-24 were shot down, which adds to about seven AFU aircraft shot down for the week, including three Su-27 and two MiG-29. Pretty ballsy for the Ukrainian pilots, they probably knew this was a suicide mission deep into enemy territory before being able to launch their missiles. The aircraft killers were likely MiG-31 with R-37Ms.

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Russian flag on the most western surviving building in Marinka. Kudos goes to the 5th Brigade of the 1st Donetsk Army and the 150th Motorized Rifle Division.

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Ukrainian Ministry of Defense continues to deny the fall of Marinka.

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With hopes of victory fading, Ukraine's war against Russia could get even harder in 2024 --- CNBC

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AFU mess hall shows the new look of the Ukrainian army, which seems to be getting older.

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AFU sniper Konstantin Prochinsky --- "We lost more people in a day than in a few months.". Also describes Russian soldiers as being equipped with steel genitals.

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"The additional supplemental funding would have been done already had the counteroffensive gone better" --- Michael Allen, ex officer of the Security Council of the United States and ex-assistant to George W.Bush.

The US has suspended or slowed down the military assistance to Ukraine due to the lack of success in the counteroffensive.

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UAV operators adjust the fire of artillery at Ukrainian positions.

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Checkpoints all over Kiev

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FABs falling on Novomikhailovka.

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FABs falling on Avdiivka coke plant.

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M109 Paladin gets knocked out by Lancet in Kherson via the VDV.

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solarz

solarz

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Michaelsinodef said:
???

Ukraine has way more than just 100k casualties by now though.

As for whether or not Ukraine would be able to 'last for decades' (imo, atmost some years), that's really another story as it depends a lot on how much they already have lost compared to total population right now in Ukraine, as well as how many active soldiers they have now at the front line and how many casualties they are suffering every week, as well as how many new people they can get every week.
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I said "irrecoverable casualties". Casualties means dead + wounded. Most of casualties are wounded who can return to battle after a while.

As I already mentioned above, the number of irrecoverable casualties is a tiny percentage of Ukraine's total male population of fighting age.
 
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Stierlitz

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solarz said:
I said "irrecoverable casualties". Casualties means dead + wounded. Most of casualties are wounded who can return to battle after a while.

As I already mentioned above, the number of irrecoverable casualties is a tiny percentage of Ukraine's total male population of fighting age.
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Ukrainian irrecoverable casualties have surpassed 100k as early as in Nov 2022. Remember Ursula von der Leyen's accidental revelation ?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1739604196565880895
 
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solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Stierlitz said:
Ukrainian irrecoverable casualties have surpassed 100k as early as in Nov 2022. Remember Ursula von der Leyen's accidental revelation ?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1739604196565880895
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Ukraine's population is 40 million. Assuming a quarter of that is men fit for combat duty, that's still a pool of 10 million recruits.

So even if their irrecoverable casualty is one million, that's still well below replenishment levels.

Let's not forget that the Soviet Union suffered 27 million dead against in WW2 with a population of 200 million.
 
Maikeru

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Stierlitz

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solarz said:
Ukraine's population is 40 million. Assuming a quarter of that is men fit for combat duty, that's still a pool of 10 million recruits.

So even if their irrecoverable casualty is one million, that's still well below replenishment levels.

Let's not forget that the Soviet Union suffered 27 million dead against in WW2 with a population of 200 million.
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General Marchenko doesn't seem to agree with you about the size of that pool ...

"General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Marchenko admitted that the volunteers for the Ukrainian army are over

The Ukrainian army does not understand how it is possible to mobilize another 500 thousand people, as required by the authorities, said Major General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmitry Marchenko in an interview with Deutsche Welle.

"Those volunteers who wanted to voluntarily join the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are over <...> To say exactly when it will be (mobilization. - Ed.) and how qualitatively, it is difficult to say, <...> how to do it physically, there is no understanding," he said.

According to Marchenko, in exchange for 100 soldiers lost at the front, only 20 people are mobilized. At the same time, he is positive about the proposal to reduce the conscription age limit from 27 to 25 years, but criticized the idea of "closing holes at the front with women" while many men are hiding abroad".

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Also considering how many Ukrainians have left for Russia/EU, the size of Ukrainian population is closer to 30 million than 40 million.
 
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