The War in the Ukraine

Ukraine has confirmed SU-30 shot down trying to do SEAD.

Well it looks like the second Patriot battery has been moving around the southern part of the country so the SU-30 was likely taken out by a SAMP/T battery.

Geran drones score hits at the Odessa region.


M777 howitzer taken out by Lancet at the right bank of the Dniepr.


T-64 Ukrainian tank taken out by Lancet at the right bank of the Dniepr.


Ukrainian troop squad tracked with night vision gets hit by artillery at the banks of the Dniepr.


Krynki as seen by the eyes of a Ukrainian soldier.


Ukraine will suffer insane losses if the US stops aid --- The Independent


Sounds to me they already are suffering horrendous loses and the frontlines are close to breaking.

PT-91 tank abandoned and stuck in a ditch.


BM-21 Grad with extra levels of protection.


Somewhere in Rabotino. NATO vehicle graveyards aka the Bradley Square.


Brief review of a Ukrainian drone grenade captured by the Russians.


Ukrainian mortar and pickup knocked out by the 30th Artillery Brigade


New FAB arrivals on Ukrainian positions in Novomikhailovka.


This Orcheretino village northwest of Avdiivka used by Ukrainians as headquarters, supply depot, and rotation center has been devastated by Russian strikes.


Ukrainian tanks seen burning as the Russians move through the Silver Forest in the Kremenna region in an apparent large scale offensive.


Marinka is now completely secure in Russian hands as the last Ukrainian resistance were eliminated.


Avdiivka direction southern flank. Russians advance another 500 meters through Nevelskoye.


Uragan-1M now being deployed in the field by Russian forces. This version of the Uragan is capable of firing the Tornado-S satellite guided rocket.


Ukrainian FPV drone operators attack a Russian drone operator nest in a building in Kherson. However the grid and wires around the windows blocked the drones. By the time the Ukrainians got another drone through the Russians have already left.


Russians begin storming through Bogdanovka. Seversk-V conducting drone operations.

SolarWarden said:

Anyone can do what you did bringing up a nations past wars which by the way didn't stop the US from bombing Hanoi. In fact Linebacker II brought Hanoi to its knees/negotiation table devastating Hanoi including its IADS. In Desert Storm Baghdad had the most dense IADS second to Moscow yet somehow forgot to bring that up, huh?

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Typical US boasting.

"There were about 11,846 U.S helicopters that served in the Vietnam War. The U.S records show 5,607 helicopter losses.
...
In total, the United States military lost in Vietnam almost 10,000 aircraft, helicopters and UAVs (3,744 planes, 5,607 helicopters and 578 UAVs).
...
The Republic of Vietnam lost 1,018 aircraft and helicopters from January 1964 to September 1973."

The US basically lost half of the helicopters it sent there. Try to keep that in mind next time you hear about Russia's supposed horrendous helicopter losses in Ukraine.

In Operation Linebacker II the US lost like 10% or more of the B-52 bombers they sent in the raid. Why do you think the US stopped doing raids like that? Your so called "success" actually led to the US withdrawing from South Vietnam.

SolarWarden said:

Lol. You would be very wrong saying the USAF has less experience in SEAD/DEAD missions. Todays USAF fighters F-16's, F-15E's, F-22's, F-35's, B1's and B2's are far more capable in SEAD/DEAD than aircraft the USAF had in Desert Storm. Suppression of the enemies air defense systems is the USAF #1 doctrine. USN has plenty of Growlers that in 2022 they wanted to retire 5 of their squadrons that were being used in expeditionary role for land base use when USAF said they didn't want them.

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So you are basically confirming what I said, that the USAF has no proper ECM aircraft anymore and has to ask the Navy if necessary.
They are lucky that the US Navy didn't fall into the stealth Kool-Aid like they did.

SolarWarden said:

Lol. Again you're going back in time almost 25 years ago to make a false argument. If you would have done your research before posting you would have known not all F-117's sorties flew with dedicated ECM aircraft, where do you come up with this? Also the F-117 flew many sorties over Yugo after the shoot down of one.

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It is just like I said, the F-117 flew without ECM and got shot down. And it was tracked with the P-12 radar from 1956. Russia has had several generations of mobile VHF radar come out after that. The P-18 radar, the Nebo radar, the Nebo-SV radar, the Nebo-SVU radar, and the latest Nebo-M. And Russia isn't the size of a postage stamp like Serbia is.

SolarWarden said:

US SEAD/DEAD is more than fighters with HARMS and jamming pods. This post just shows how you much you don't know how US does SEAD/DEAD. This isn't 1969 or 1999 stop living in the past.

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The US can use long range GPS guided missiles against stationary targets. They have decoys. So what. It is not like Russia doesn't have those either.

What Russia lacks is dedicated frontline ECM aircraft. They never got around to finishing them like I said. They decided that the Khibiny ECM pods, which can be equipped in all their Flankers, would have been enough but this wasn't the case. I am fairly sure this will be given improved emphasis in the future.

Serb said:

In the context of Ukraine, it's current birth rate is annihilated, and underage males that could potentially enter the battlefield in the next few years/decades are at large in the EU or on their way there.

Maybe EU eventually start hunting them down and sending back to Ukraine straight to the battlefield. After all, that's what's already happening, but only inside the country. However, this is not for certain.

Ukraine will never have this kind of fighting population of right now, or year before now, allowing them to stop Russian army at the stalemate level ever again. Russia will gain more and more and if this continue for decades win entirely.

It will only get worse. They keep dying massively, but recruits keep getting worse and worse in quality, so the structure is worsening, but eventually will also start getting worse in numbers too. Russia has way larger population pools too.

Russia on the other hand relies on their industrial might and massive quantities of firepower as their main advantage. And that will not slow down like Ukrainian sacrificing human capital advantage, but will keep on rising in fact, as we see from industrial indicators, due to economics of scale.

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Does anyone has fragging ( lethal attacks on superiors by lower ranks ) statistics for AFU?

isogur said:

Does anyone has fragging ( lethal attacks on superiors by lower ranks ) statistics for AFU?

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Unlikely that there is any official numbers/stats for that out right now.

Even non official numbers are unlikely to be accurate or the likes.

gelgoog said:

The US basically lost half of the helicopters it sent there. Try to keep that in mind next time you hear about Russia's supposed horrendous helicopter losses in Ukraine.

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Our UH-1D pilots say the helicopter was designed to last 30 hours.

SolarWarden said:

fighterbomber himself hinted at losses I think you're just trying to cope.

Ukraine MOD made the claim because they fired at three targets very likely cued by US aircraft in which US aircraft then confirmed which then later russian milblogger fighterbomber made that post that hinted russian aviation suffered losses.

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"The crests did not shoot down any Su-30 or Su-34 yesterday or today. Maybe they shot down some of their sides, I don’t know why I should feel sorry for them. But all our planes and helicopters are safe and sound. By the way, crests, it’s time to demand those same proofs from your General Staff. Or #isthisdifferent? Be sure to ask what's wrong with them."
Dec 25

Serb said:

In the context of Ukraine, it's current birth rate is annihilated, and underage males that could potentially enter the battlefield in the next few years/decades are at large in the EU or on their way there.

Maybe EU eventually start hunting them down and sending back to Ukraine straight to the battlefield. After all, that's what's already happening, but only inside the country. However, this is not for certain.

Ukraine will never have this kind of fighting population of right now, or year before now, allowing them to stop Russian army at the stalemate level ever again. Russia will gain more and more and if this continue for decades win entirely.

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The math doesn't work like this. Even if we assume a high estimate of 100k irrecoverable casualties, that is still only a small fraction of Ukraine's population.

During the Warring States era, Zhao lost 400k soldiers in the Battle of Changping, yet they were still able to resist Qin for decades and even inflict severe defeats upon the latter.

From Ukrainian Channel "Legitimniy"

"Odessa was in the spotlight yesterday. Dozens of explosions in the city and the region. Anti-aircraft missile launches were in vain; the sky was illuminated by anti-aircraft artillery, but nothing was shot down.

According to our data, Russians hit radar systems and air defense installations with missiles, blinding the Odessa region. Following the missiles, kamikaze UAVs easily bypassed the defense.

The Bankova media department even tried to quell panic by falsely claiming the downing of a Russian Su-30/34 aircraft, as usual, without evidence.

There was also a drone attack on Pavlograd and, in general, on Dnipropetrovsk, Starokonstantinov Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Kharkiv Oblasts.

The conclusion from the entire story is that daily drone attacks seem to be achieving their goal of clearing the Ukrainian Armed Forces' air defense. After all, each launched anti-aircraft missile contributes to the shortage of ammunition."

It was reported by Fighter Bomber today, and several other military-linked channels yesterday, that all the Russian fighter jets returned safely to home bases yesterday.

@DDGeopolitics

SBU uses Mamai attack drones for special operations in the Black Sea.