The War in the Ukraine

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
So a Patriot missile battery, with a range of at best 160 km, hit a Su-30 which was launching a Kh-59 cruise missile. Which has a range of at least 285 km. Right. As usual Ukraine can't even spin a believable lie.
SU-30 not confirmed yet bruh. However 4 SU-34's lost days apart is negligence on the Russian air force.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
We have a photograph of a pilot's parachute, a photo of a crashed Flanker from last year, and a lot of claims with zero substance behind them.

A single Su-34 probably went down, as for the rest of the claims, without better evidence I wouldn't put much credence on them.

The RuMod confirmed the loss of a Su-34. The claim of 4 it is likely Ukranian optimism
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Another failed attempt of a Ukrainian landing boat as it sinks.

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Warehouses in the Odessa port explode.

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Russians use a new tactic where they use various means to locate and track a Baba Yaga drone to its source then bomb the crew either with artillery or drones. Here the Seversk V special unit spots and tracks a Baba Yaga with their drone, then proceeds to artillery the source destroying the Ukrainian hideout and some armored vehicles in the process.

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"Ukraine ended with volunteers wishing to go to the army, VSU gradually ends soldiers, — General VSU Marchenko
Those volunteers who wanted to go to the ranks of VSU in order to resist (Russia), ended" — he declared.
Therefore, the military commissars are forced to walk through the apartments and the private sector in search of potential conscripts.
The VSU command does not understand how it is possible to mobilize another 500,000 people.
Now, in return for 100 killed and wounded soldiers VSU – mobilize only 20 people with low motivation."

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IMO, the VSU need for 500,000 people reflects their total losses, either dead, captured, surrendered, or wounded to a state that cannot be returned to the front.

7th Brigade working on AFU positions in Belgorovka. Likely an offensive will take place here in the near future.

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Mass production of Krasnopols

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VDV paratroopers pose in Artemovosk. At least nine Ukrainian strongholds taken over the past week. One paratrooper holding an interesting shotgun.

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International brigade Pyatnashka at work in the Avdiivka front. Here three Ukrainian soldiers surrendered.

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Thought was expressed by a Ukrainian soldier with a call sign "Hottabych".
"You'll catch a man, put a uniform on him, but it won't be military. It will be civil in shape". - he summed up. Meaning putting an involuntary civilian conscript by force into a uniform does not make a soldier.

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This Ukrainian citizen on a wheelchair miraculously could walk when no recruiters are around.

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TASS, who is close to the Russian MoD, confirms operational deployment of the Koalitsya-SV.

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German edition of Focus claims that the Ukrainians are losing 800 personnel per day due to superior Russian artillery. This amounts to 24,000 a month. That aligns with the requirement to draft more than 20,000 people each month to the AFU. That doesn't account for the need of rotation. According to Stoltenberg, Ukraine uses about 4 to 7 thousand shells a day while the Russians use about 20,000.

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
RUSI has written extensively about this. The fact that VKS has been unable to strike deep in Ukraine without stand off weapons is undeniable evidence. According to M. Koffman, European air forces would not have fared better. Only the US and Israel have the means and the training&doctrine necessary to perform SEAD/DEAD against an air defense system this magnitude.
The US hasn't gone against air defenses like Ukraine's since arguably the Vietnam War. And we know how well they did there...

I would say that the USAF has actually less expertise in the SEAD mission right now than they had back in the Gulf War. Back then they had a lot of aircraft dedicated to the ECM mission like the EF-111A Raven. The US Navy had the EA-6B Prowler. Right now they would likely have to ask the US Navy to use the Growlers they have. But the thing is the amount of Growlers available is much lower than the Prowlers they used to have. Let alone Prowlers+Raven.

The USAF basically claims they don't need dedicated ECM aircraft because they now have stealth aircraft. But that wasn't the case over Yugoslavia when the F-117 proved unable to operate safely without ECM aircraft. And I doubt it would be the case when fighting Russia either. In the case of fighting Russia it would in fact be a lot worse since they have way more, and more advanced, long wave radar than the Serbs did. They have the Container, Voronezh, Rezonans fixed radar sites, and they have the Nebo-M mobile radar.

If you look at the specs of the US Harm missile, it's not any better than the specs of the Kh-31. The only thing which the Russians lack is a modern version of the Su-24MP. This was supposed to be developed as part of the Su-34M variant, but it's been delayed like heck.

1703470985553.jpeg

The Su-30 and Su-34 could also have better defenses against IR missiles. You can tell that by the much lower number of Su-35 losses. The Su-35 actually has more advanced countermeasures against IR missiles than either of those aircraft.
 
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RottenPanzer

Junior Member
Registered Member
Looks like more bad news for Russian air force as Ukraine is confirming another SU-34 shot down and not yet confirmed SU-30

If the SU-30 is confirmed by Ukraine MOD then that makes 5 of the latest Russian 4th gen fighters taken out by Patriot.

Patriot is a beast.
I would put these kinds of claim at the same level as Russian daily MoD read on the occasional downings of Ukrainian aircrafts tbh
 

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
The US hasn't gone against air defenses like Ukraine's since arguably the Vietnam War. And we know how well they did there...


Really? What relevance what happened 55 years ago have with today? I'll answer that for you... nothing!

Anyone can do what you did bringing up a nations past wars which by the way didn't stop the US from bombing Hanoi. In fact Linebacker II brought Hanoi to its knees/negotiation table devastating Hanoi including its IADS. In Desert Storm Baghdad had the most dense IADS second to Moscow yet somehow forgot to bring that up, huh?
I would say that the USAF has actually less expertise in the SEAD mission right now than they had back in the Gulf War. Back then they had a lot of aircraft dedicated to the ECM mission like the EF-111A Raven. The US Navy had the EA-6B Prowler. Right now they would likely have to ask the US Navy to use the Growlers they have. But the thing is the amount of Growlers available is much lower than the Prowlers they used to have. Let alone Prowlers+Raven.

Lol. You would be very wrong saying the USAF has less experience in SEAD/DEAD missions. Todays USAF fighters F-16's, F-15E's, F-22's, F-35's, B1's and B2's are far more capable in SEAD/DEAD than aircraft the USAF had in Desert Storm. Suppression of the enemies air defense systems is the USAF #1 doctrine. USN has plenty of Growlers that in 2022 they wanted to retire 5 of their squadrons that were being used in expeditionary role for land base use when USAF said they didn't want them.
The USAF basically claims they don't need dedicated ECM aircraft because they now have stealth aircraft. But that wasn't the case over Yugoslavia when the F-117 proved unable to operate safely without ECM aircraft.

Lol. Again you're going back in time almost 25 years ago to make a false argument. If you would have done your research before posting you would have known not all F-117's sorties flew with dedicated ECM aircraft, where do you come up with this? Also the F-117 flew many sorties over Yugo after the shoot down of one.
And I doubt it would be the case when fighting Russia either. In the case of fighting Russia it would in fact be a lot worse since they have way more, and more advanced, long wave radar than the Serbs did. They have the Container, Voronezh, Rezonans fixed radar sites, and they have the Nebo-M mobile radar.

If you look at the specs of the US Harm missile, it's not any better than the specs of the Kh-31. The only thing which the Russians lack is a modern version of the Su-24MP. This was supposed to be developed as part of the Su-34M variant, but it's been delayed like heck.

US SEAD/DEAD is more than fighters with HARMS and jamming pods. This post just shows how you much you don't know how US does SEAD/DEAD. This isn't 1969 or 1999 stop living in the past.
View attachment 123013

The Su-30 and Su-34 could also have better defenses against IR missiles. You can tell that by the much lower number of Su-35 losses. The Su-35 actually has more advanced countermeasures against IR missiles than either of those aircraft.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
3-6 hours ? it shows how much you know of the manufacturing process and engineering behind it :rolleyes:

This is normal problem for somebody who doesn't know the stuff (not talking about you) and tend to hugely underestimated other areas that they don't know anything about it. The opposite for somebody knows a bit of stuff to hugely overestimate the area they know a bit

We can learn a lot from others views from this forum, great place
I was just making a simple estimate. In a wartime economy it's not impossible to produce say 100-200 tanks a month which would be approx 6 hours per tank.
It is however impossible to make a fighting human in that timespan.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I was just making a simple estimate. In a wartime economy it's not impossible to produce say 100-200 tanks a month which would be approx 6 hours per tank.
It is however impossible to make a fighting human in that timespan.
sure it is. its 100-200 tanks nationally per month.

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300k per month. 1/2 male.

assuming roughly constant birthrates the production rate of fighting humans in the US is ~150k per month.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
In the context of Ukraine, it's current birth rate is annihilated, and underage males that could potentially enter the battlefield in the next few years/decades are at large in the EU or on their way there.

Maybe EU eventually start hunting them down and sending back to Ukraine straight to the battlefield. After all, that's what's already happening, but only inside the country. However, this is not for certain.

Ukraine will never have this kind of fighting population of right now, or year before now, allowing them to stop Russian army at the stalemate level ever again. Russia will gain more and more and if this continue for decades win entirely.

It will only get worse. They keep dying massively, but recruits keep getting worse and worse in quality, so the structure is worsening, but eventually will also start getting worse in numbers too. Russia has way larger population pools too.

Russia on the other hand relies on their industrial might and massive quantities of firepower as their main advantage. And that will not slow down like Ukrainian sacrificing human capital advantage, but will keep on rising in fact, as we see from industrial indicators, due to economics of scale.
 
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