The War in the Ukraine

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Lancets take out two Ukrainian SPGs on the right side of Kherson.


Russian tanks assaulting Ukrainian positions in the industrial section south of Avdiivka.


Moving Ukrainian vehicle, lased, tracked and followed, hit by Krasnopol in one strike.

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A water tower used by the Ukrainians as a communications and observation post gets knocked out by ATGM.

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Su-25s striking on Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka and releasing flares.

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Night artillery bombardment on Ukrainian positions by the 26th Regiment in South Donetsk.

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Knocked out T-64BV with an anti mine trawl.

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Night incendiaries over Ukrainian positions in Kleeshevka.

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Russian artillery blasted this group of vehicles. Aftermath viewed by Ukrainian TikTok.

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View from Donetsk over the fights in Avdiivka.

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Russian missiles did a number on a building used by the Ukrainians in Selidovo. Usually a target like this is a barracks or brigade level headquarters or both.

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ST-68U radar destroyed by Lancet on the right side of the Dniepr.

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Dramatic moment when this Ukrainian vehicle, seen from Ukrainian POV, got hit by an FPV drone. IMO, this seems more like the vehicle hitting a mine.

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A

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
lych470 said:
● Seventy percent of troops in one of the brigades leading the counteroffensive, and equipped with the newest Western weapons, entered battle with no combat experience.
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Seventy percent with no combat experience and they throw them in minefields in column in front of ATGM traps and fortification, thinking they will continue unfazed... these poor lads, what a waste of life.
 
TK3600

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
lych470 said:
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Key elements that shaped the counteroffensive and the initial outcome include:

● Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan. But Washington miscalculated the extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a Western-style fighting force in a short period — especially without giving Kyiv air power integral to modern militaries.

● U.S. and Ukrainian officials sharply disagreed at times over strategy, tactics and timing. The Pentagon wanted the assault to begin in mid-April to prevent Russia from continuing to strengthen its lines. The Ukrainians hesitated, insisting they weren’t ready without additional weapons and training.

● U.S. military officials were confident that a mechanized frontal attack on Russian lines was feasible with the troops and weapons that Ukraine had. The simulations concluded that Kyiv’s forces, in the best case, could reach the Sea of Azov and cut off Russian troops in the south in 60 to 90 days.

● The United States advocated a focused assault along that southern axis, but Ukraine’s leadership believed its forces had to attack at three distinct points along the 600-mile front, southward toward both Melitopol and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov and east toward the embattled city of Bakhmut.

The U.S. intelligence community had a more downbeat view than the U.S. military, assessing that the offensive had only a 50-50 chance of success given the stout, multilayered defenses Russia had built up over the winter and spring.

● Many in Ukraine and the West underestimated Russia’s ability to rebound from battlefield disasters and exploit its perennial strengths: manpower, mines and a willingness to sacrifice lives on a scale that few other countries can countenance.

● As the expected launch of the offensive approached, Ukrainian military officials feared they would suffer catastrophic losses — while American officials believed the toll would ultimately be higher without a decisive assault.
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Had counter attack started sooner while Russia was down on manpower, it would make a difference tactically. Not sure if final outcome would differ though.
 
G

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
sheogorath said:
Kalahsnikov did have the right idea with the KUB, missed the mark on payload but at least they quickly remedied it with the Lancets but yeah, everything else was out there.
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I told you guys that Kalashnikov was going to deliver. Of all the Russian companies working on drones back then they were the only ones with experience in making things cheap with mass production. And of course it happened.

sheogorath said:
Still lacking on the MALE drone front, though, but this seems to have actually pushed the Orion out of the "symbolic production" realm
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The Orion is being produced in more numbers and they also have the Orion-2. But they still have issues with survivability of large drones like this over a non-permissive air environment like in Ukraine. It is also a bit of a problem to mass produce these types of drones because there are no decent mass produced engines available for them in Russia. I think until the next generation of stealth UCAVs become available these will have limited impact.

Something like the Grom drone should have more potential. But it will take a significant amount of time to get it operational.

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sheogorath said:
Also expanding on this, how they got rid of their reluctance to develop guided munitions to now spam it all over the place
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Yes. But I think they will need to redesign their air delivered ammunition to make it more amenable to mass production. Production of the guidance kits is still too artisanal and many of the available dumb bomb airframes aren't made for gliding in the first place. This can't be solved without redesigning them I think. One option is to put the Kh-36 Grom-E2 into mass production and make higher caliber versions of the same.
 
lych470

lych470

Junior Member
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff has warned that his nation is in danger of losing its war against Russia if more US military aid is not forthcoming.

Andriy Yermak said there was a "big risk" of Ukrainian defeat without continued US support.
"It will be difficult to keep in [the] same positions and for the people to really survive," he added, in a speech at the US Institute of Peace in Washington DC on Tuesday.

Mr Yermak's dire assessment was given just hours before Mr Zelensky pulled out of a scheduled video conference with US senators to brief them on the war effort. Majority Leader Sen Chuck Schumer said the Ukrainian leader was occupied with a "last-minute" matter, without providing further detail.
 
Gloire_bb

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
TK3600 said:
Had counter attack started sooner while Russia was down on manpower, it would make a difference tactically. Not sure if final outcome would differ though.
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(1)units were completely not ready. As experience shown, they weren't even in June.
Rather basic things such as mine clearing equipment and vehicles were rushed to the front only on June.
(2)April and better half of May it rained non stop.
(3)Ukraine and friends was desperately building up stocks of shells throughout winter and spring, including stripping allies which have a lot to loose here(South Korea, Israel). That took time, and apparently wasn't ready in April.
(4)defensive networks were ready by April, and they anyway far exceeded that instrumental intelligence has seen.
Captives either weren't available(strange), or interrogations going against narrative and satellite footage were dismissed.
 
T

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Ukrainian positions in Krynok getting FAB bombed.


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And more

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And more

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Compilation of FPV drone strikes from Sudoplatov Battalion including a hit on a communication tower and a pickup delivering supplies.


PT-91 tank left destroyed in Rabotino.

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Czech DANA SPG gets knocked out by Lancet.

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Another Lancet nails a Ukrainian IFV in the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction.

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Geran strikes reported in the area of Berdichev in the Zhytomyr region.

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Russian tank assaulting Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka takes a hot from an ATGM and an FPV drone, throws out smoke grenades, then keeps on ticking and assaulting.

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After Nigerians were reported fighting for Russia, so are the Nepalese Gurkhas. To be fair on both sides of the conflict, and getting killed.

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Julian Roche ---
The Ukrainian counter-offensive of 2023 – is one of the largest strategic miscalculations of the United States in recent decades.

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"The administration of Biden misled Ukraine, the world and itself for about six months before realizing the reality of."

CNN--- Ukraine's lifeline with the US hanging by a thinning thread.

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Zelensky's address to the US Congress gets cancelled in the last moment. Will address Congress through video.

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In the meantime, Morocco gets a batch of Abrams M1A2 and waiting to receive a large batch of Bradleys.

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7th Brigade takes out Ukrainian positions in Belgorovka. This appears like in preparation for an assault, softening operation.

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Battles in Verbove as Russians advance one km.

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Russians in pursuit of retreating Ukrainians in the outskirts of Artemovosk as Russians go into the offensive. Entrenched Ukrainian units being hunted down with drones.

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Russian drone attacks Baba Yaga in process of bombing Russian troops and manages to take it down.

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It is reported that a Russian Su-24M may have been shot down near Odessa by a Patriot missile, crashing into the Black Sea. Russians sent a Mi-8 for rescue but no luck.

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South Korea denies sending artillery shells to Ukraine.

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Azerbaijan also denies sending artillery shells and other military assistance to Ukraine.

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Last edited:
phrozenflame

phrozenflame

Junior Member
Registered Member
sheogorath said:
Kalahsnikov did have the right idea with the KUB, missed the mark on payload but at least they quickly remedied it with the Lancets but yeah, everything else was out there.

Still lacking on the MALE drone front, though, but this seems to have actually pushed the Orion out of the "symbolic production" realm
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I think MALEs would be shut down really fast in this kind of conflict, we saw Baykars being completely knocked out after the first few weeks and hardly seen action again. I feel they just fly too high and slow and are an easy target, they aren't clearly tactical or strategic.

MALEs have really worked where enemy doesn't have any anti air capability (rag tag militias and terrorists in Afg, and AFME and Armenia where AD troops were highly incompetent).

Future for MALES in contested airspace is clearly stealth.

After Lancets, it would be really interesting to watch how well Termits do. If they could only launch fire and forget ATGMs, that would be devastating.
 
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