The War in the Ukraine

plawolf

Lieutenant General
PARP (Persistent Anti-Radiation Platform)? For SEAD? For DEAD?

Why, again, is is that Russia’s Air Force has not been a decisive factor, either tactically or strategically?

An inability to accomplish either SEAD or DEAD?

Russia couldn’t achieve SEAD because of NATO IRS plugging directly into Ukrainian kill chains, as such, SEAD is fundamentally impossible without going after NATO ISR. That is the fundamental strategic problem that no amount of tactical solutions could ever hope to realistically mitigate at acceptable cost. Put the USAF in such a bind and they will also fail to achieve SEAD.

As for DEAD, well again that is almost impossible with NATO ISR providing early warning so launchers can have time to hide or reposition.

Even with all the PARP you could dream of, it would be almost impossible to stop a launcher, under NATO ISR effective control, from popping off a missile at close range at a passing aircraft with almost zero warning. So essentially you will be trading fighters for launchers and seeing who can afford that attrition.

The Russians are wise to not play such stupid games and just focuses on DEAD of enemy long range AD (notice how there are zero reports about Patriots these days after the initial hype) and look for ways to out-stick Ukrainian short to medium range Ukrainian AA instead.

It’s slow and lacks the shock and awe factor, but it is effective as the VKS is slowing clawing its way back into operational relevance again in this war.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
There's really a lot of arrogance in this thread. For all the bashing that this Forum does of "clueless Western experts", a lot of people sure are sounding like those "Western experts".

I have no issue with Western commentary personally. It has it's place, but the mistake most people make is putting such commentary on a pedestal and treating as the authoritative voice on military matters. It isn't, and a long history of both strategic and tactical defeats, should make that obvious.

Do I agree with everything the Russian military is doing? No. Quite frankly, I think a lot of their tactics are downright wasteful and are massively constrained by their inadequate focus on basic C&C concepts. But this is a military that's operating within some hard-set constraints, and a military that has basically the entire Western MIC working against it. This is effectively the first real peer conflict in the 21st century, but go ahead. Go ahead and wave everything off as "incompetence" and "nonsensical" instead of looking at what's actually happening on the ground.

A few pages ago I saw someone suggest that a Western military would try an airborne assault behind enemy lines in Avdeevka. Yeah, I agree. That does seem the kind of insanity that a Western army would try to do despite any Russian or Ukrainian advisor telling them not to do it. This is a battlefield that's littered with SAMs, MANPADS, and radars.

GMLRS missiles are regularly shot down by Russian air defense. But is that what pro-Ukraine posters are thinking about? No, it's the usual "wat air defense doing?" when an ATACMS or Shadow Storm manages to hit a target. Nevermind that it had the benefit of Western ISR that's given free reign by Russia thanks to Article 5 or that the fire mission probably took days-weeks to plan out.

But hey by all means, gloat all you want. I'm sure it does brave Ukrainian men a lot of good. You know, the guys actively dying and fighting for Western ideals, but apparently aren't good enough or smart enough to defeat an "incompetent" enemy.

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I'm sure you've all heard the big news in the last two days. Russians finally managed to take the "slag heap" North of Avdeevka.


1698214899027.png

I don't think I have to tell anyone how important this position is, and Russians did bleed for it. I saw Tatarigami's post on how many vehicles were lost in the last week, I don't quite believe his estimate of 100+ vehicles destroyed. Some of the imagery was... well, it's unclear if some of those wrecks were already there or not. Regardless of the actual number, it's quite obvious that the losses were heavy. 100+ vehicles is 2-3 battalions and even if the majority of the crew survived, those units are going to take a long time to bring back to combat readiness.

For the actual slag heap itself, it's actually hard to tell whether it's "captured" or merely cleared of all Ukrainian presence. My guess is the latter, with the heap itself being mostly a grey zone, but perhaps with a minimal Russian presence to act as spotters. I think Russia will have to advance further around Avdeevka if they want to turn the heap into a bunker and start putting larger mortars and artillery on it.

Ukraine is continuing to defend well, but this is one of those moments that feels like a turning point. Much like Opytno in Bakhmut, this is one of the key dominos that had to fall.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Actually the Russians have most of their tasks still ahead of them.
They haven't even gotten to the buildings on the other side of the tracks properly. And trying to fight against opponents placed in the high rises in the south, or entering the Coke plant is probably a suicide.

It isn't the first time the Russians tried getting Avdiika either. Last time was several months ago. And back then they got to a similar or even better position than they got now. Then they ended up withdrawing somewhat. But right now I doubt they will stop pushing. Ukraine is at its nadir in terms of staying power after their abortive offensive, and Russia is at its peak with rough parity in manpower.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
Actually the Russians have most of their tasks still ahead of them.
They haven't even gotten to the buildings on the other side of the tracks properly. And trying to fight against opponents placed in the high rises in the south, or entering the Coke plant is probably a suicide.

It isn't the first time the Russians tried getting Avdiika either. Last time was several months ago. And back then they got to a similar or even better position than they got now. Then they ended up withdrawing somewhat. But right now I doubt they will stop pushing. Ukraine is at its nadir in terms of staying power after their abortive offensive, and Russia is at its peak with rough parity in manpower.
I don't think it's viable to advance past the train tracks without neutralizing that hill.

1698222585263.png

Looking at the topography of the area, it does seem like once Stepove and Sevirniy are taken, the battle is essentially won. It's all downhill (literally) after that. Of course, it might take several months to fully dislodge the defenders in Avdiivka even then. Who knows how deep the cellars in that fortress go.

But yes, in general I agree. Lots of work left to do for Russians.
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
Such horrific act, Last time it was Peeka K's doxxing Donbass Devushka's account, then got bitten back when he doxxed another account GhostZOV.

and here i thought these often Nafo supporters are fighting for democracy.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Beavers took out a T-64BV with an FPV drone. For all the talk about Western tanks, the T-64 still carries the brunt of the action in the front for the AFU.

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A salvo from TOS-1A saturates Ukrainian positions.

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An FPV drone from the 1st Slavansk Brigade takes out a T-64BM of the AFU. Based on the unit, I would assume the Avdiivka region.

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ATGM of the 200th MR Brigade takes out a Kirpi. Based on the unit, I would assume at the northern flank of Artemovosk.

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Destroyed M109.

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T-64BV throws it's turret somewhere in Zaporozhye.

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Destroyed 2S3 Akasya of the AFU.

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Destroyed Humvee of the AFU.

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Number of published FPV drone videos from the Russians have exceeded 1500.

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"According to the statistics of colleagues from LostArmour
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, by the middle of the day on October 25, 2023, at least 1507 episodes of the use of FPV drones in
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NWO zone were published. A third of all episodes of the use of FPV drones were published over the past month.

Of the 1,507 targets, 241 were guaranteed to be destroyed, and another 239 targets were guaranteed to be damaged. In 569 videos, successful hits were recorded, but it is not possible to assess the damage caused (as a rule, there are no frames of objective control). The results of another 232 episodes of the use of FPV drones are not known for certain. Unfortunately, in 88 cases, misses were recorded.

The most common targets of FPV drones are: enemy positions (502 episodes), vehicles (225 episodes), infantry outside cover (198 episodes), light armored vehicles (161 episodes) and various buildings (149 episodes).

Given the number of sources of publication, some frames could be lost and not taken into account in the general statistics. In addition, many even successful episodes do not make it to the network. The actual combat score of FPV drones is much higher."

Two Leopard 2 burning after unsuccessful assault in the Rabotino sector.

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The two Leopards most likely victims of the Beavers (@BOBMORF).

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Ukrainian assault using an MT-LB. Russians responded with artillery, knocking out the MT-LB.

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Failed Ukrainian assault leads to four armored vehicles destroyed by ATGMs of the 58th Special Forces Brigade.

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Ukrainian advance with two tanks and one armored vehicle, resulting in one of the tanks destroyed by ATGM from the VDV.

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Summary from the US neocon thinktank ISW.

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"The main conclusions of the American Institute for the Study of War are:
▪️Russian troops repelled the attacks of the Ukrainian army in the area of the settlements of Synkivka, Ivanivka and Serhiivka, as well as west of Kreminna in the area of Yampolivka and Dibrova.
▪️The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation repelled the attack of the Ukrainian army and struck Ukrainian forces in the area of Bohdanivka and Klishchiivka.
▪️The Russian army conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka and achieved successes, advancing southwest of Krasnohorivka and north of the railway line.
▪️Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked near Avdiivka in the area of Pisky, Opytne and Pervomaiske.
▪️Russian troops continued ground attacks in the area of the border of the DPR and the Zaporizhzhia region and advanced north of Priyutne.
▪️The Russian army counterattacked northwest of Rabotino and in the area of Verbovoe.
▪️The Armed Forces of Ukraine unsuccessfully tried to seize the positions of the Russian Armed Forces on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River.
▪️The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (Black Sea Fleet) repelled an attack by Ukrainian underwater sabotage forces and ship-based drones on Sevastopol."

152mm Krasnopol and 240mm Smel'chak shells working on Ukrainian dugouts and trench positions.

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Trophies captured from Ukrainians after successful Russian assault at an AFU stronghold in Priyutne.

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Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'm kinda curious tho if Russians ever tried to salvage the lost Leopard-2 tank themselves, the strv-122 and 2A5/A6 tho could be of their best interest. strv-122 especially as it's claimed afaik to be the best protected Leopard, which includes French Galix soft kill APS.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
I'm kinda curious tho if Russians ever tried to salvage the lost Leopard-2 tank themselves, the strv-122 and 2A5/A6 tho could be of their best interest. strv-122 especially as it's claimed afaik to be the best protected Leopard, which includes French Galix soft kill APS.
Trophy APS would have been an interesting salvage for Russia but I think none of the leopard variant in Ukraine got it.
 
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