There's really a lot of arrogance in this thread. For all the bashing that this Forum does of "clueless Western experts", a lot of people sure are sounding like those "Western experts".
I have no issue with Western commentary personally. It has it's place, but the mistake most people make is putting such commentary on a pedestal and treating as
the authoritative voice on military matters. It isn't, and a long history of both strategic and tactical defeats, should make that obvious.
Do I agree with everything the Russian military is doing? No. Quite frankly, I think a lot of their tactics are downright wasteful and are massively constrained by their inadequate focus on basic C&C concepts. But this is a military that's operating within some hard-set constraints, and a military that has basically the entire Western MIC working against it. This is effectively the first real peer conflict in the 21st century, but go ahead. Go ahead and wave everything off as "incompetence" and "nonsensical" instead of looking at what's actually happening on the ground.
A few pages ago I saw someone suggest that a Western military would try an airborne assault behind enemy lines in Avdeevka. Yeah, I agree. That does seem the kind of insanity that a Western army would try to do despite any Russian or Ukrainian advisor telling them not to do it. This is a battlefield that's littered with SAMs, MANPADS, and radars.
GMLRS missiles are regularly shot down by Russian air defense. But is that what pro-Ukraine posters are thinking about? No, it's the usual "wat air defense doing?" when an ATACMS or Shadow Storm manages to hit a target. Nevermind that it had the benefit of Western ISR that's given free reign by Russia thanks to Article 5 or that the fire mission probably took days-weeks to plan out.
But hey by all means, gloat all you want. I'm sure it does brave Ukrainian men a lot of good. You know, the guys actively dying and fighting for Western ideals, but apparently aren't good enough or smart enough to defeat an "incompetent" enemy.
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I'm sure you've all heard the big news in the last two days. Russians finally managed to take the "slag heap" North of Avdeevka.
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I don't think I have to tell anyone how important this position is, and Russians did bleed for it. I saw Tatarigami's post on how many vehicles were lost in the last week, I don't quite believe his estimate of 100+ vehicles destroyed. Some of the imagery was... well, it's unclear if some of those wrecks were already there or not. Regardless of the actual number, it's quite obvious that the losses were heavy. 100+ vehicles is 2-3 battalions and even if the majority of the crew survived, those units are going to take a long time to bring back to combat readiness.
For the actual slag heap itself, it's actually hard to tell whether it's "captured" or merely cleared of all Ukrainian presence. My guess is the latter, with the heap itself being mostly a grey zone, but perhaps with a minimal Russian presence to act as spotters. I think Russia will have to advance further around Avdeevka if they want to turn the heap into a bunker and start putting larger mortars and artillery on it.
Ukraine is continuing to defend well, but this is one of those moments that feels like a turning point. Much like Opytno in Bakhmut, this is one of the key dominos that had to fall.