The War in the Ukraine

SampanViking · May 31, 2022

SAC said:
Perhaps this briefing explains the assessment:

. Not directed at you @Temstar, but why would Russia want to occupy all of Ukraine?

Thats the big question.
Maybe the question should now be, not does Russia want, but does Russia achieve the security zone its looking to create if it does not? Or at least take a significant part of the remainder in order to leave a very small and insignificant rump in the West?

If a large and still viable state is left beyond the main pro-Russian areas, its pretty clear now that this remaining state of the Ukraine will continue to be turned into an armed camp with the prospect of restarting the war on what the Ukrainians would like to believe to be favorable terms.

Is replacing a relatively small line of contact along the front lines of a frozen conflict with a new much larger version of the same really a worthwhile objective?

So do I see the Pro-Russian forces going much further than the obvious areas? Well yes, but not necessarily with full participation of the RuAF themselves. I see this as a job for the local militia's which is close to the war that I suspect the Russians always were looking to fight.

Nor of course does this have to be lighting conflict, but I am sure they are happy to have one that grinds on for a quiet a period, pushing ever deeper into the Ukrainian heartlands.

Maybe of course we will instead a grand finale as Poland moves in and annexes the West and the Belo-Berussians descend into the heartland from the north and everybody conducts a dismemberment.

TK3600 · May 31, 2022

SAC said:
What job? What is the National Strategic Objective? Why occur a population that is not in any way inclined to you? Brilliant Plan!

The job is to neutralize the danger these population poses. They may be of no direct value to hold them, but certainly letting them roam free is the worse option. Your idea assumes if those hostile population is left alone they will quietly rot away. They will not. This is a fallacy.

Edit: Perhaps China should give up hong kong. Why hold a place that whine of you? Why not give up Taiwan too? They dont seem very keen joining back either.

Why occupy Germany after WWII? They dont like you just let them roam free lol.

sheogorath · May 31, 2022

SampanViking said:
Maybe of course we will instead a grand finale as Poland moves in and annexes the West and the Belo-Berussians descend into the heartland from the north and everybody conducts a dismemberment.

I can see Poland being that greedy and doing exactly just that if the rumors of them asking NATO to allow them the annexation of Kaliningrad are true

TK3600 · May 31, 2022

sheogorath said:
I can see Poland being that greedy and doing exactly just that if the rumors of them asking NATO to allow them the annexation of Kaliningrad are true

Then Poland is on its own because us aint gonna nuke russia for a war poland started.

ansy1968 · May 31, 2022

SampanViking said:
Thats the big question.
Maybe the question should now be, not does Russia want, but does Russia achieve the security zone its looking to create if it does not? Or at least take a significant part of the remainder in order to leave a very small and insignificant rump in the West?

If a large and still viable state is left beyond the main pro-Russian areas, its pretty clear now that this remaining state of the Ukraine will continue to be turned into an armed camp with the prospect of restarting the war on what the Ukrainians would like to believe to be favorable terms.

Is replacing a relatively small line of contact along the front lines of a frozen conflict with a new much larger version of the same really a worthwhile objective?

So do I see the Pro-Russian forces going much further than the obvious areas? Well yes, but not necessarily with full participation of the RuAF themselves. I see this as a job for the local militia's which is close to the war that I suspect the Russians always were looking to fight.

Nor of course does this have to be lighting conflict, but I am sure they are happy to have one that grinds on for a quiet a period, pushing ever deeper into the Ukrainian heartlands.

Maybe of course we will instead a grand finale as Poland moves in and annexes the West and the Belo-Berussians descend into the heartland from the north and everybody conducts a dismemberment.

@SampanViking Sir will it not entail a redrawing of boundaries with the inclusion of Hungary and Romania as well or it will be a 3 way fight between the 3. What I can tell is the Ukraine we know today will cease to exist.

Temstar · May 31, 2022

plawolf said:
I don’t think Russia would simply stop after taking all the pro-Russian areas. There is just no reason or benefit for them to do so while there will be a hell of a lot of downsides to leaving the job half finished.

I still think Putin is going for all the Ukrainian marbles, but we may see a significant shift in operational approach after they have taken the pro-Russia areas.

Currently the Russians are working with significant restraint in their application of force in and around civilian population centres while the Ukrainians are indifferent or actively using their pro-Russian civilians as human shields.

You will have to be an idiot to think the Russians have not taken note and remembers that.

As such, I can easily see the Russians reversing their self imposed restrictive ROE once they get to the anti-Russian parts and just flatten everything with truly excessive use of artillery and probably a lot more aviation if precision isn’t really needed anymore.

That has a multitude of benefits such as further reducing their casualties; vastly speeding up their advances, and driving the anti-Russian population out of Ukraine so post conflict there will be much less insurgency to deal will while also creating a massive welfare and societal problem for NATO and the EU.

The cost is going to be massively bad PR, but the extreme western media war has already tried to make Putin out to be worse than Hitler and the devil combined, so I don’t think there is that much downside as far as Putin is concerned.

Those are all good reasons that I agree with, my thinking is more I have doubts Russian are operationally able to take all of Ukraine. It's one thing fighting in Donbas where supply lines to Russia proper is short, but once you move westward supplies become harder for Russians and easier for Ukrainian moving stuff from Lviv.

TK3600 · May 31, 2022

Temstar said:
Those are all good reasons that I agree with, my thinking is more I have doubts Russian are operationally able to take all of Ukraine. It's one thing fighting in Donbas where supply lines to Russia proper is short, but once you move westward supplies become harder for Russians and easier for Ukrainian moving stuff from Lviv.

Bold of you to assume there would be a functional military left for Ukraine after you grabbed east and south. And as if there would be any old western stocks coming by then. This is battle of Berlin type of stuff done at very end.

Minm · May 31, 2022

Temstar said:
Someone back in Feb posted this picture which showed the pro-Russian population ratio:
View attachment 89764
At the time this division made more sense to me than the river. I though of it at the time as the "maximum" goal for a possible Russian offensive, the "minimum" I thought would be just to expand the two republics to their administrative border. Hence I too was very surprised with the attack on Kiev with a "okay... I hope you guys know what you're doing" feel.

It's safe to assume that the vast majority of refugees in the EU are Ukrainian nationalists and anti Russian, so it would be very interesting to know what that map would look like today.

SampanViking · May 31, 2022

Temstar said:
Those are all good reasons that I agree with, my thinking is more I have doubts Russian are operationally able to take all of Ukraine. It's one thing fighting in Donbas where supply lines to Russia proper is short, but once you move westward supplies become harder for Russians and easier for Ukrainian moving stuff from Lviv.

You note that MSM always talk about "Russian forces" and "Russian Occupation". They often gloss over and try to barely mention "the pro Russian Separatists" who do much of the heavy lifting.
Yes it would be one thing for large numbers of Russian Federation Army Troops to head into the less friendly areas. Probably another if its mainly other Ukrainians from nearby Oblasts if not native to the actual area itself.

In Farce news however were this mornings pronouncements on the BBC, They quoted the "Governor" of Luhansk without actually telling us where he was located at the time. They referred to Severodonetsk as the "Capital" of Luhansk!

Maybe he shares an office now with the Mayor or Mariupol?
I wonder where the Governor of Donetsk is based? Does he have his own Capitol as well?

Soldier30 · May 31, 2022

Foreign and Ukrainian journalists came under direct shelling in Ukraine, several journalists, including the Ukrainian military, were injured.

The War in the Ukraine

SampanViking

The Capitalist

TK3600

Major

sheogorath

Major

TK3600

Major

ansy1968

Brigadier

Temstar

Brigadier

TK3600

Major

Minm

Junior Member

SampanViking

The Capitalist

Soldier30

Senior Member