The War in the Ukraine

Julian, pro-Ukraine, cites that AFU troops have completely withdrawn from Severodonetsk. No gunshots or bombings are heard in the city, so the city has really fallen. I called attention to this in the video I posted of the troops downtown, about not hearing a single bang. However, it appears that there is still combat in adjacent districts such as Borivske and apparently there is a presence of AFU troops in Voronove. It seems to me that there are likely AFU troops in the region, but they may have retreated to the bridge at this location, which was still minimally trafficable, but maybe not for heavy armored vehicles: . Toshkivka also fell, so the Russians are already approaching Lysychansk, which is very close, even for the AFU troops who supposedly retreated there.


Russians built and allocated a large base in the Belgorod region, with the border of Kharkiv, city of Veidelevka, but they are talking about Sumy, so I don't understand this part, the location is this: /CMRWJjYFCE5QWcem7. There are 2.14 km², which seems to be a large gathering at the brigade level, as it is a deactivated airport. There are speculations that after taking the Severodonetsk theater of operations and advancing on Slovyansky and Kramatorsk, the Russians would re-invade the Sumy and Chernihiv region, moving several AFU troops to the region, making Kharkiv less defensive and even allowing an offensive in the South. , but I find it quite difficult, Putin will do everything at a time. The truth is that the AFU is starting to pull back on several fronts, starting with Lyman and now, apparently, Severodonetsk. I imagine that if the Russians arrive in Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, eventually taking the city, we could see AFU troops retreating from the other Donbass fronts so as not to be completely cut off, as the Russians would threaten the two main logistical hubs of the AFU, which is in Pavlovgrad and Dnipro.


Here's another video of a Sukhoi in aerial combat. Most likely it is an R-37 missile, which has a "Cruise Glide Profile" flight profile, similar to the AIM-54 and I-Derby, the R-77-1 only has the "Direct Attack" profile, like an AIM- 120. By the way, in the internal Pylone it is possible to see an R-37, at 1:38 minute:


In Kherson, unidentifiable location:


A PHOLOS from Overwatch Defense, a British company seems to have delivered the AFU.

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Vladislav Ugolniy: Ukraine's unity is crumbling amid serious military losses in the Donbass and Zelensky is feeling the heat​

The recent advances of the Russian army have taken their toll on society and are a major setback for the leadership's motivational efforts


That is how belief in a speedy victory disappeared from Ukrainian society. Alexey Arestovich, a top adviser to the office of the President, who has somehow become the main military expert in Ukraine, as well as military bloggers associated with the nationalist Azov unit, are already talking about a difficult June and July. Even Zelensky himself has lost his optimism. What is the reason for this?

Since the second half of April, the Russian army has concentrated on several objectives:

1. Expanding its foothold around Izium and cutting off Slaviansk
2. Conducting an offensive from Kupiansk along the Oskol Reservoir to Sviatogorsk and Liman
3. Liberating the Rubezhnoye-Severodonetsk-Lisichansk area
4. Breaking through the fortified defense formations in the Popasnaya area to enter the operational theater
5. Breaking through the fortified defense formations in the area of Avdeevka and its surroundings
6. Establishing control over Mariupol

By the end of May, most of these tasks had been completed. The Ukrainian army put up the greatest resistance in the area around Izium, thanks to which the front has been kept at a distance of 20 kilometers from Slavyansk. However, this was achieved by concentrating most of its reserves between Izium and Slavyansk, which made it impossible to deploy them in other areas.

A little to the east, the Russian army marched about 80 kilometers along the Oskol Reservoir, liberating the district center Liman on May 27. Now Slavyansk is under threat not only from a strike from the northwest, but also from the northeast, and positions on the left bank of the Seversky Donets River, which is key for this theater of operations, remain only in the Svyatogorsk area and the Kharkov Region.

But all those upvotes!

Suetham said:

Here's another video of a Sukhoi in aerial combat. Most likely it is an R-37 missile, which has a "Cruise Glide Profile" flight profile, similar to the AIM-54 and I-Derby, the R-77-1 only has the "Direct Attack" profile, like an AIM- 120. By the way, in the internal Pylone it is possible to see an R-37, at 1:38 minute:

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If the russians haven't changed the symbology of their HUDs from the Su-27, the missile selected should be shown on the lower right corner of the HUD video but its hard to tell due to low quality and being in cyrillic.

SAC said:

Perhaps this briefing explains the assessment:

. Not directed at you @Temstar, but why would Russia want to occupy all of Ukraine?

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Simply look back at world history and see how many subsequent wars were a result of states trying to reclaim territory they lost in previous wars.

Ideally you want a neutral buffer between major powers to reduce friction, but the key word is neutral. Any vestiges of Ukraine left will be far from neutral and will forever be a massively hostile agitator for further conflict between NATO and Russia.

With western political virtue signalling trumping all other practical considerations at present, and explicit comments made by senior western officials about admitting Ukraine into the EU and NATO, there is a serious risk of the Ukraine tail wagging the NATO dog into an article 5 direct war with Russia if any meaningful piece of Ukraine is left at the end of this.

Temstar said:

Those are all good reasons that I agree with, my thinking is more I have doubts Russian are operationally able to take all of Ukraine. It's one thing fighting in Donbas where supply lines to Russia proper is short, but once you move westward supplies become harder for Russians and easier for Ukrainian moving stuff from Lviv.

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This might be a consideration if the Elensky regime was smart, pragmatic and strategic in its thinking and actions. But their conduct thus far have shown them to be anything but.

And I think this is something already factored into Russian war strategy and is a key reason for their current slow poke approach.

Essentially, they are just baiting Elensky into feeding more and more men and materials into the meat grinders the Russians have set up in the Donbas, and Elensky is more than happy to oblige. Hell, he is even going above and beyond ordering idiotic counter offensives for no good reason other than Twitter likes and Reddit points.

By the time the Russians are done grinding through the Donbas, it’s very likely the back of the Ukraine military would be utterly broken. In which case I think Putin will just steamroll all the way to the Polish boarder and there won’t be much left to really make his logistical vulnerability count.

Besides, other than Russian self-inflicted wounds gifted to the Ukrainians from massively overextended initial mad dashes, the Ukrainians have shown very little success in disrupting Russian supply lines at present since they have almost no long range interdiction capabilities anymore and Russian Spetsnaz seems to be wiping the floor with Ukrainian SSO.

Extended supply lines and significant territorial gains might open up more opportunities for SSO, but to be frank, such ad hoc small scale attacks are little more than annoyances, and will have almost no impact on the overall tactical big picture, never mind at the strategic level.

Suetham said:

Here's another video of a Sukhoi in aerial combat. Most likely it is an R-37 missile, which has a "Cruise Glide Profile" flight profile, similar to the AIM-54 and I-Derby, the R-77-1 only has the "Direct Attack" profile, like an AIM- 120. By the way, in the internal Pylone it is possible to see an R-37, at 1:38 minute:

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There is no R-37 there. Only R-77-1 (this has glide profile as RVV-SD the export version of it has). The big missile at 1.37-1.38 is Kh-31PM.

Temstar said:

Those are all good reasons that I agree with, my thinking is more I have doubts Russian are operationally able to take all of Ukraine. It's one thing fighting in Donbas where supply lines to Russia proper is short, but once you move westward supplies become harder for Russians and easier for Ukrainian moving stuff from Lviv.

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I agree. Once Putin decided to abandon Kiev encirclement, the dream of taking all of Ukraine is over. In fact, if I was Putin, I would have full-scaled mobilized and concentrated solely against the Kiev encirclement to get unconditional surrender. Just bypass the most difficult eastern front entirely. Once the center collapses, everything collapses.

Ok, so just checking, but what are the rules about posting combat footage and aftermath footages these days?

Obviously no gore or NSFW or individually identifiable vids/images of the fallen, but what about battlefield dead viewed from afar where the ugly details cannot be seen and the fallen cannot be individually identified?

There is an interesting vid of a line of dead Ukrainian troops near a railway line where all the fallen are almost in a straight line which is most curious. Would be interested to get some second thoughts of what might have killed them like that.

Phead128 said:

I agree. Once Putin decided to abandon Kiev encirclement, the dream of taking all of Ukraine is over. In fact, if I was Putin, I would have full-scaled mobilized and concentrated solely against the Kiev encirclement to get unconditional surrender. Just bypass the most difficult eastern front entirely. Once the center collapses, everything collapses.

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The big problem with decapitation is that once its been done, who is left to negotiate with to close the thing down.
If Russia does move to decapitation, it will simply mean that they no longer have any confidence is there being anyone that they can eventually negotiate with.

As for Kiev, there is a big difference between abandoning a mission and being defeated. Clearly the Russians were not defeated militarily and forced to retreat. The mission, what ever it was, was abandoned and the Russians conducted an orderly withdrawal in good order.

I never bought into the Kiev capture narrative. To me I saw a major scale pincer to develop along the Dnieper, to match the pincer that was developing in the South at the Mouth of the River at Kherson.
I think most people would agree that the Ukrainians should have withdrawn in February to the West bank of the Dnieper and preserved it army along a much stronger defensive line. The order to hold all ground may have made for good TV but is now clearly being shown for the Strategic disaster that many; myself included, always saw it as.

As Wolfie says, once the Donbas force is defeated, what else of any consequence do the Ukrainians have left. Then you can see the rapid rolling up of what is left including a return to Kiev for whatever purpose.

New report, confirmation required:


It seems that the Russians are preparing to link the troops that are coming from the East with the troops that are coming from the West, thus opening another way for Slovyansky, being that both Svyatogorsk and Lyman have a road connection with the aforementioned city and are 20 km away. and 19 km away, respectively, from Slovyansky.