The War in the Ukraine

It is not necessarily the case that the Russian command 'desires' a counteroffensive. That is not the defensive-attrition based Svechin approach (Gerasimov advocates) which puts economic & political house before military.

The main mystery to me is 'when will the reserves be ready and when they will they be deployed'? Both sides consider approx. half of the ground forces Russia has against Ukraine. At this rate it is looking like the Rus/Ukr are periodically making noise about Russian offensives that don't happen since fall 2022.

To create a new & larger second invasion army like Feb 2022 against Ukraine may take an extremely long time, far longer than anybody has anticipated. It would require Russian military production and training to proceed much faster than losses at the front to create a ready reserve with reformed & modernized combat doctrine that integrates all the experiences of Ukraine 2022-2023.

Russia not only has superiority in artillery volume, they also have superiority in air power. So it is much more likely for them to break through such minefields than Ukraine. The Russians also have dedicated vehicles for mine clearing at a distance like the UR-77 Meteorit.

gelgoog said:

Russia not only has superiority in artillery volume, they also have superiority in air power. So it is much more likely for them to break through such minefields than Ukraine. The Russians also have dedicated vehicles for mine clearing at a distance like the UR-77 Meteorit.

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Wondering about the use of Tos-1a for mine clearing with thermobaric warheads, could they give enough ground pressure/shock wave to create a path ? A bit like the CATFAE system ?



Ukraine had UR--77 Equivalent and also mine clearing vehicules in the counteroffensive... sure that they had less artillery volume but they not even had a chance to create some kind of path more than a field long before getting wrecked. I don't have a high level of optimism for the Russian do be able to do maneuvre warfare either.

Moving in a crawling pace could be a thing like I said, only if they have enough troops, time and ammunitions to cover them. It's probably why we don't see them trying huge push.

There just too much dispersion.


Kinda why something like Deriviyatsia and AHEAD is needed. the drone are just too small to hit properly with "direct hit" kinetic munitions.

The bloggers would report this as a couple of FABs. But the use of an Orlan or another UAV lasing the target suggests to me the real culprit munition to be either a KAB, Kh-38L, or even Kh-29L. AFU warehouses getting hit in the Donetsk area.


Two Krabs taken out by artillery in the Donbass.


Night hunt of the Alligator finds it's prey yet on another Bradley.


Russia to introduce a smaller, more lightened version of the Tornado-S, similar to what HIMARS did.


Two glide bombs hit AFU depots in Kostiantynivka.


Wrecked Ukrainian IFVs, Polish Rosomak APCs and a burning T-64BV at Andreevka. The work of the 83rd, 85th MR Brigade and other Russian units.


War isn't a video game but they are certainly bringing the video game to the battlefield. Burning Maxxpro in the Orekhiv sector, a victim of drones, as a Russian operator shows off his handiwork. Ukrainian assault towards Verbove appear frustrated by the work of the 22nd SPN Brigade, VDV and MR units. An air strike, possibly with a FAB, quickly hit Ukrainian positions.



Destruction of a large Ukrainian ammunition and weapons storage facility in Kiselyovka in the Kherson region. MoD estimates three thousand tons of ammunition of various calibers destroyed.


Closeup of destroyed Marder near Verbove hit by ATGM.


FPV drone strike on AFU T-80BV tank.

gelgoog said:

Russia not only has superiority in artillery volume, they also have superiority in air power. So it is much more likely for them to break through such minefields than Ukraine. The Russians also have dedicated vehicles for mine clearing at a distance like the UR-77 Meteorit.

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Were you paying attention winter of 22 at Vuhledar? Russian superior artillery and air superiority almost got a divisions worth of Russian armor destroyed.

SolarWarden said:

Were you paying attention winter of 22 at Vuhledar? Russian superior artillery and air superiority almost got a divisions worth of Russian armor destroyed.

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As I recall the Ukrainian "kill claim" (dubious) was approx. a brigade of armor. This doesn't include what was recovered.

The Russians incinerated the city and the environs with their firepower superiority though.

The Russians have no shortage of large infantry units + new and forming reserve forces now but it appears that they are really unwilling to rush them foreword in a second invasion of Ukraine.

It is likely that they are trying to figure out how to fix their doctrine and train so they don't lose so many tanks like in 2022 offensive campaigns.

Cult Icon said:

As I recall the Ukrainian "kill claim" (dubious) was approx. a brigade of armor. This doesn't include what was recovered.

The Russians incinerated the city and the environs with their firepower superiority though.

The Russians have no shortage of large infantry units + new and forming reserve forces now but it appears that they are really unwilling to rush them foreword in a second invasion of Ukraine.

It is likely that they are trying to figure out how to fix their doctrine and train so they don't lose so many tanks like in 2022 offensive campaigns.

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Lets meet in the middle... lets say between a division and brigade worth of Russian armored vehicles but don't dismiss the rest of my retort to his post where he said....

Russia not only has superiority in artillery volume, they also have superiority in air power. So it is much more likely for them to break through such minefields than Ukraine. The Russians also have dedicated vehicles for mine clearing at a distance like the UR-77 Meteorit.

Click to expand...

Back then Russian arty was at its peek before HiMARS arrived and started targeting Russian ammo depots. Their air force was also still in great shape yet their "superiority" in arty and air didn't help them breakthrough Vuhledar which was their goal. Now they are in worse shape in the arty realm and it shows since Russian forces have been slowly but steadily been getting pushed back.

This Ukrainian advantage in artillery that some people claim is basically a myth.

Ukraine has NATO long range 52 calibers artillery like the French CAESAR. But it is not like Russia does not have long barrel artillery. Russia has the 49 calibers Giatsint-B, and the tracked 54 calibers 2S5 Giatsint-S. Both CAESAR and Giatsint-S can fire base bleed ammo. The range of both artillery units with base bleed ammo is roughly similar.

Also, not all the NATO artillery Ukraine is operating is long barreled. A lot of the systems they are using are M109 Paladin systems with 39 calibers length.

As for HIMARS, Russia has Tornado-S, which uses 300mm rockets compared with the 227mm rockets used by HIMARS.

What Russia lacks is enough units in service to cover the huge amount of front. But Ukraine has much the same problem, only in their case it is much worse because they have less artillery units and shells. Also, Russia had hundreds of units of 2S5 Giatsint-S artillery in storage when the conflict started. They can just take them out of storage. The Russians have also been upgrading the Smerch launchers into Tornado-S which can fire GLONASS rounds. This can be seen increasingly like with the recent Russian attack on that Ukrainian railway.

Admiral Sokolov getting interview


Clearly his resurrection completely returns him to the state before his untimely death on Ukrainian strike.