The War in the Ukraine

ZeEa5KPul said:

That means if there's no further strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure as a matter of principle, the AD will redeploy to the front.

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That’s basically past tense already since the Russians haven’t hit Ukrainian infrastructure in any concerted way for months, and much of Ukraine’s AD have moved back to the front to support their Grand Offensive (TM).

But the Russians have used the time their strikes bought them well, and have dragged itself into the 21st century (somewhat) in terms of stand-off attack capabilities. They are using glide bombs increasingly on the frontlines, and have not suffered any excessive aircraft losses to Ukrainian AD in the meantime.

As time drags on, I expect the Russians to start to use more air launched stand-off weapons in both types and numbers, and their pilots become more proficient in stand-off AG strike operations under complex hostile AD environments.

So the infrastructure strikes of last year should really be seen as a one-off rather than an annual event.

plawolf said:

That’s basically past tense already since the Russians haven’t hit Ukrainian infrastructure in any concerted way for months, and much of Ukraine’s AD have moved back to the front to support their Grand Offensive (TM).

So the infrastructure strikes of last year should really be seen as a one-off rather than an annual event.

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The infrastructure strikes of last year have probablyy helped to buy time for the mobilization to do training... and also occupying the Ukrainian forces while building their static defence network.

Abominable said:

No they didn't. They briefly targeted substations and other components of the power grid. You can repair and replace those, but you can't do the same to an entire power station or water treatment plant.

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One of the things I read was that the attacks were causing the interruption of the water supply to the cities, because in the absence of water passing through the pipes, the water that remained in the pipes froze and when it froze, it destroyed the pipes. I don't know how true that was.

Sinnavuuty said:

One of the things I read was that the attacks were causing the interruption of the water supply to the cities, because in the absence of water passing through the pipes, the water that remained in the pipes froze and when it froze, it destroyed the pipes. I don't know how true that was.

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Soviet-Era centralized heating systemsare present in multiple Ukraine city, with complex system of water or steam for heating a lot of infrastructures, mostly public services buildings. If these systems are damaged, not a lot of these buildings have a secondary heating system and problems arise.

If Putin is, now, directing Russian operational strategy, it seems we may have a repetition of the Hitler vs German Generals scenario; and we all know how that turned out!

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An insider claims Putin ordered his defense minister to stop Ukraine's counteroffensive within a month — and it may explain why Russia is making costly attacks, war analysts say​

Sonam Sheth
Mon, September 25, 2023, 9:47 AM CDT


And, no, I don’t endorse BI; I’m, well, aware of their bent!

Putin orders Russian Defence Minister to halt Ukrainian counteroffensive before early October – ISW​

Ukrainska Pravda
Sun, September 24, 2023, 11:34 PM CDT


And, yes, this outlet has a “bent”, as well!

james smith esq said:

If Putin is, now, directing Russian operational strategy, it seems we may have a repetition of the Hitler vs German Generals scenario; and we all know how that turned out!

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An insider claims Putin ordered his defense minister to stop Ukraine's counteroffensive within a month — and it may explain why Russia is making costly attacks, war analysts say​

Sonam Sheth
Mon, September 25, 2023, 9:47 AM CDT

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And, no, I don’t endorse BI; I’m, well, aware of their bent!

Putin orders Russian Defence Minister to halt Ukrainian counteroffensive before early October – ISW​

Ukrainska Pravda
Sun, September 24, 2023, 11:34 PM CDT

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And, yes, this outlet has a “bent”, as well!

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A funny take that can’t be refuted. Isn’t stopping Ukrainian counteroffensive been what Russian forces have been doing in the last few months? What other options are there? Let the Ukrainian forces reach Mariupol?

They have been preparing for the Ukrainian counter offensive since like last November or so.
Seems like the preparations have been paying off for the Russians. Ukraine state goal of swimming in Crimea this summer seems to not be reached.

vincent said:

A funny take that can’t be refuted. Isn’t stopping Ukrainian counteroffensive been what Russian forces have been doing in the last few months? What other options are there? Let the Ukrainian forces reach Mariupol?

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BlackWindMnt said:

They have been preparing for the Ukrainian counter offensive since like last November or so.
Seems like the preparations have been paying off for the Russians. Ukraine state goal of swimming in Crimea this summer seems to not be reached.

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To my reading, the temporal constraint imposed on these operations (not preparations) is the “news” component of these reports, to the degree that they represent actuality, that is.

Should we see an increased tempo of Russian counter-offensives in the next three weeks, as the articles observe, and a subsequent shake-up in command, should the Ukrainian counter-offensive not be either halted or stopped, by mid-October, then these may provide some evidence as to the validity of these reports and the reliability of the “insider” (pun, and play, intended) source.

And, I agree that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has been, largely, ineffective. However, this has been more the result of active-defense (the preparations that you referred to) than of the counter-offensive operations to which I think these reports refer. Stopping, or halting, an adversary’s offensive operations within a set time-frame suggests, to me, a requisite counter-offensive, or strategic-bombing campaign, intended to deprive the adversary of offensive capabilities. Simply engaging in active-defensive actions allows the offensive to maintain the initiative and determine the temporal frame.

After Lancets taking out MiG-29s, we got an Orlan-10/30 or something else lasing the Ukrainian air force base, and another MiG-29 burning, which might have been a FAB or even Krasnopoled. If it was a Krasnopol that would be over 70km, but it can be the Orlan lasing for another laser guided munition, probably a KAB (laser guided bomb) or just sending coordinates for a Tornado-S. At least at this point, it's a good bet that the Orlan has range over 70km.


Pretty dufus there is no air resistance to stop UAVs from loitering the air force base, and the MiG-29s were not moved elsewhere.

Ukrainian warehouse aka depot totally got blown up. Culprit munition not mentioned.


Another Ukrainian ammo depot in the Kherson region goes up in bits and flames following a Su-34 attack. Orlan UAV recording the event and may have been the one providing the spotting and targeting. There might be possibility that it's not all FABs involved as mentioned by bloggerdom but there are also KABs and Kh-29L.


Marders gets knocked out in Verbove by ATGM.




Knocked out Ukrainian T-72M1.


Ukrainian warehouse in Krasnoliman taken out by two FABs landing in the same point.


Two Su-34 carrying UMPK mounted FABs. They have become the mainstay bombers.


AFU tanks gets taken out by Krasnopol.


Orlan followed Ukrainian troop company to their hideout, which is then struck by artillery, possibly a Krasnopol or Kitolov-2. This in the Artemovosk sector.


AFU Kazak takes a direct hit from FPV drone courtesy of the Osman unit. This puts it in the Rabotino-Verbove sector.


Ukrainians spot Russians using fake inflatable tanks.


Rostov on Don submarine damage is not critical and the submarine will return to service albeit with prolonged repair period, according to TASS. We will see.


Ukrainian tank hidden in the forest gets hit by a Lancet.


Artillery strike, also using Krasnopol or Kitolov-2, on Ukrainian DRG.


AFU units under heavy fire from the 42nd MR Division with assistance from the Osman special forces. This about 1.4 km from Verbove.

Footage has been published of the first strike of the Russian kamikaze drone "Lancet" on the Ukrainian Stridsvagn 122 tank made in Sweden. In total, Ukraine received 10 such vehicles. The Strv 122 tank is a Swedish modification of the German Leopard 2A5 tank. The main change was the addition of armor to the tank, with tungsten, ceramic and plastic elements. A new fire control system was also developed for the tank. As a result of the Lancet drone strike, near Stelmakhovka on the Kupyansk sector of the front, a fire started in the tank.