The War in the Ukraine

Sinnavuuty

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Zichan

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In the latest War on the Rocks podcast, M. Koffman shared his learnings after a recent visit to Ukraine.

He thinks it’s very obvious now that the Western trained and western equipped Ukrainian troops have performed significantly worse than experienced Ukrainian units without western equipment.

He again repeated his claim that Russia is rationing artillery ammo (his own observations during the visit) and that Ukraine has superiority in tube artillery (but not rocket artillery), primarily because of rationing on Russia’s side.

Finally, he thinks that the current attrition phase favors Ukraine in absolute losses, but there is concern that Russia might be trading expendable green troops for battle hardened and much more difficult to replace Ukrainian troops.
 

FairAndUnbiased

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In the latest War on the Rocks podcast, M. Koffman shared his learnings after a recent visit to Ukraine.

He thinks it’s very obvious now that the Western trained and western equipped Ukrainian troops have performed significantly worse than experienced Ukrainian units without western equipment.

He again repeated his claim that Russia is rationing artillery ammo (his own observations during the visit) and that Ukraine has superiority in tube artillery (but not rocket artillery), primarily because of rationing on Russia’s side.

Finally, he thinks that the current attrition phase favors Ukraine in absolute losses, but there is concern that Russia might be trading expendable green troops for battle hardened and much more difficult to replace Ukrainian troops.
Help me understand here: the side attacking into minefields, presighted artillery and airstrikes, has an advantage in attrition?
 

Chilled_k6

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I think it depends on the sector of the Zaporozhye Front. When Staromaioske got captured a few days ago by the Ukrainians, a Russian commander there said the Ukrainians have superiority in artillery in that sector. I can't remember exactly where I read it but I believe this was on Rybar. This sector also have proportionately more experienced Ukrainian troops with Soviet equipment, like the 72nd mechanized brigade providing artillery support. This brigade wrecked the Russian armored formations in Ugledar in the winter if you recall.

I get the impression the Russian EW and AD coverage is relatively weaker in this sector too. Conversely Ukrainian artillery forces are stronger. For example, fresh video shows this Russian 2S7 and Buk in close proximity hit by Ukrainian artillery:

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Note the location, its 20km+ behind Staramaioske front line, behind the "First Line of Defense". Of course the most successful video example in that sector was when the Ukrainians knocked out an entire battery of Msta-S in June.

Around Kamianske and Robotyne, losses are obviously in favor of Russia. At Robotyne, I remember there were a couple of video instances of Russian tanks hit by FPV drones, but were there even any permanent losses in tanks these past 2 months?

Staramaioske/Vremesky Ledge could be a bit more even, with the Ukrainian drone usage & counter battery in particular more successful.
 
D

Deleted member 24525

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As the attacking party Ukraine has the initiative to choose where to concentrate its artillery resources. This allows them to achieve localized artillery superiority despite Russia's major advantage in overall shell production, at the cost of long term sustainability. So that is probably true.

In terms of attrition tbh I don't know how Koffman figures that. Maybe Russian barrel losses are more substantial than I've seen, but that's the only category where they could realistically have higher total losses in the past 2 months.

I am dumbfounded why Ukrainian command chooses to continue pursuing the Robotyne axis instead of fully committing to the ledge further east. They have used up almost half the allotted time before the fall rains and yet continue to split their forces.
 

drowingfish

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As the attacking party Ukraine has the initiative to choose where to concentrate its artillery resources. This allows them to achieve localized artillery superiority despite Russia's major advantage in overall shell production, at the cost of long term sustainability. So that is probably true.

In terms of attrition tbh I don't know how Koffman figures that. Maybe Russian barrel losses are more substantial than I've seen, but that's the only category where they could realistically have higher total losses in the past 2 months.

I am dumbfounded why Ukrainian command chooses to continue pursuing the Robotyne axis instead of fully committing to the ledge further east. They have used up almost half the allotted time before the fall rains and yet continue to split their forces.
the problem is if the lines at robotyne had refused to budge, then they might've reconsidered their approach. But the russians did give them some ground, on purpose or not, and that drew the ukrainian commands to throw more units at it.
 
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Tam

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the problem is if the lines at robotyne had refused to budge, then they might've reconsidered their approach. But the russians did give them some ground, on purpose or not, and that drew the ukrainian commands to throw more units at it.

Bingo, the Russians are constantly baiting in different directions, making the Ukrainians threw resources at all these different directions. Not just Robotyne, but Pyaktihatki and even to some extent at Ugledar. The fact that Ukrainian ground forces are commanded by two generals with divergent visions of the offensive, doesn't make it any better. One general wants to pursue recapturing Bakhmut. The other wants to capture Crimea. In warfare you cannot tolerate different strategic visions of warfare, no matter how popular the generals are, example Eisenhower vs. Montgomery and most recently Gerasimov vs. Prigozhin.

Separate additions:

CV-90 headed to Russia for study. It appears this is the same CV-90 that was hit by an RPG before. The RPG killed the commander and the rest of the crew ran.

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Krab gets knocked out at the Bakhmuth area.

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Destroyed Ukrainian 2S1 Gvozdika somewhere in the Donbass area.

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Two destroyed Ukrainian ZIL trucks at the Chasov Yar area.

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Destroyed MaxxPro at Southern Donetsk.

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It seems Ka-52s are back to shooting rockets. This means less vehicles to hunt and more infantry hiding in the forest lines. The Orthodox Ka-52 strikes again.

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More armored vehicles hunted by Alligators.

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British MOD decides to scrap their remaining Challenger 2 tanks rather than send them to Ukraine. That's 43 tanks.

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247th Cossacks Regiment of the VDV knocks out infantry carrying vehicles at Staromayorsky area.

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Bradley with BRAT armor burning at Orekhiv sector.

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Artillery of the 85th Brigade hits a Ukrainian ammo depot or command post in the Belgorov sector.

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Soldier30

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Russia has seized a Swedish CV90 armored personnel carrier of the Ukrainian army. Footage from the first captured CV-90 BMP of Swedish production in Ukraine has been published. As reported, the armored vehicle was hit by a shot from a grenade launcher, its commander was killed, after which it was abandoned by the Ukrainian crew. The Russian military captured the Swedish CV9040C BMP for the first time, perhaps the car was captured as a result of the battle that we previously talked about. The CV9040 BMP is armed with a 40 mm Bofors L70 cannon and a 7.62 mm machine gun . What will happen next with the CV9040 armored vehicle is unknown, since this is a new technique and is in service with many countries, it will most likely be sent to Russia for study.






A missile strike on the night of July 31 on military facilities of the Kharkiv region was carried out by the Russian army. One of the strikes was inflicted on a warehouse of Ukraine in the Novobavarsky district of the city. Local authorities and the prosecutor's office confirmed the missile hit. Operational services of Ukraine are working on the spot.



 
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