The War in the Ukraine

plawolf

Lieutenant General

Ukrainian column attacking at Rabotino falls under heavy Russian fire. If your eyes are quick you can spot a Lancet near miss.
That wasn’t a near miss, in other footage of the same action, you can see the lancet was aiming for, and hit a cluster of dismounts taking cover beside the already disabled IFV.
 
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sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
July was a record month for the amount of Lancet videos released, with a total of 134, twice as much as the previous record in May of 62. Data from LostArmour

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Video and pictures from a vehicle graveyard around Robotino


In a The Economist article, retired Australian General Mick Ryan calls Russian defensive lines are extensive and complex, breaching would require a combined arms skills Ukraine doesn't have.

It mentions the area is littered with millions of mines and that the Russians have managed to set an extensive network of EW systems, sensors and datalinks in the area that allows them to reseed the area with mines whenever the Ukranians try to clear it, aided by dozens of FPV drones operators, Lancet attacks and attack helicopters constantly on the lookout. The article then tries to sprinkle the article with some optimism from some Ukranian soldiers with their claims that they totally are killing more Russians anyway.

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I mean, even if true, Finland killed lots of Soviet soldiers and they still lost, twice. Same for the US and Vietnam.


Business Insider article that mentions how as part of the defensive lines, the Russians set up fake trenches loaded with remotely controlled mines which are detonated as soon as Ukranian soldiers try to take them. In an interview with an Ukranian commander, in one of their assaults, they were forced to go on foot after their vehicles were disabled by artillery, and once they reached the trenches expecting a fight, turned out they were mined killing part of the assaulting group. Survivors were then picked of by FPV drones.

The commander mentions it seemed like the Russians had a drone for every soldier.

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Another BI article mentioning that the Storm Shadow is starting to lose its edge as the Russians are adapting to its use

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I do find it amusing that Michael Kofman is now the expert being quoted in every article as the previous ones have started to paint gloomier pictures of the conflict and become less "kosher"

IRIS-T launcher hit by a Lancet drone

 
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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Russian mortar shell smashes into this building used by the Ukrainians as a communication and observation center.


Says FPV drone hits this Ukrainian T-72 tank. Given the violence of the explosion and that I don't see any drone, I think this is a direct hit with an artillery shell.


Lancet from the Osman special forces unit hits a Ukrainian APC.


Ukrainian deployment point being hit by Krasnapols from the 200th Brigade. Should be north of Artemovsk.


Two Ukrainian APCs destroyed by ATGM as elements of the 24th Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces engaged the Phantom Battalion of the Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade.


Lancet hits a BTR-4E Bucephalus. Fire spreads to nearby M113.

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Another M777 take down by Lancet.

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Another dead Bradley.

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And yet another dead Bradley.

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Ukrainian Mi-24 gets shot down over Kherson.

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living0panda

Just Hatched
Registered Member
I'm a big fan of Kofman and Lee, but I take their estimates and impressions with a grain of salt.

I think that they are by far the most reasonable and accurate analysts from the West when it comes to this war, but they are still from the West (as am I, just to make it clear, I live in America). They still don't veer into wrong-think, and present a picture of Ukrainian superiority.

I think it is possible that Ukraine has favorable attrition (particularly in Bakhmut) but I don't think it's very likely.

Some other comments, like the supposed superiority of Ukrainian infantry over Russian infantry. I find that questionable. Sure, some Russian conscripts have almost no training. However, the quality of this force varies. The most funded and elite volunteer/conscript units are clearly put through lengthy training before deployment. The level of troop quality clearly varies depending on where the units come from.

By contrast, as Kofman and Lee describes, Ukrainian conscripts are taken off the streets or they volunteer. The most elite units get their pick of conscripts. The level of training is not well-described. Therefore, I am inclined to believe that there is almost no training given to conscripts. Aside from that, some 18,000 troops were given NATO training for several weeks, though there are obviously problems with that training as well.

On the balance, I am very dis-inclined to believe that Ukrainians are inherently better at infantry action or that their attrition ratio is enviable. Again, it is certainly possible, but I find it highly unlikely.

What is most likely happening, is that Kofman and Lee are being fed information by Ukrainians, that Ukrainians want them to know. This'll be a combination of anecdotes and beliefs that's a mixture of accurate/fictional. It'll also probably come from many junior officers who are unlikely to see the bigger picture (doubt that Syrski personally met with Kofman to discuss the situation). I'm sure that Junior officer from an airborne brigade thinks Russians are shit at infantry actions.

Well yeah, if his elite unit, full of the best conscripts with the best physical condition and the best training, regularly destroys the most expendable Russian units in trenches, I'm sure that's the impression he has from the whole war. I'm sure he thinks that his supporting artillery company is the best in the army, but have they ever gone head to head against Kaskad, who have routinely bested Ukrainian crews?
For people that want to know what Kofman and friends said. Listen to their podcast and read their Twitters. This is probably the harshest they have been to Ukrainian Forces and the most complements given to Russian Forces.

For people that want a summary, here's the breakdown:
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  2. https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/154oytg/_/jssiuyx
TL,DR: Ukraine is doing good in Bakhmut. Not so much in the South.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
For people that want to know what Kofman and friends said. Listen to their podcast and read their Twitters. This is probably the harshest they have been to Ukrainian Forces and the most complements given to Russian Forces.

For people that want a summary, here's the breakdown:
  1. Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  2. https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/154oytg/_/jssiuyx
TL,DR: Ukraine is doing good in Bakhmut. Not so much in the South.
Indeed. He was brutally honest in the last podcast about Ukraine’s inability to do combined arms and scale operations beyond company level.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
BTR-4E hit by Lancet.

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Vehicle cemeteries along the roads in Zaporozhye.

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Strela-10 hit Russian antitank mine.

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Another M113 burns in the Donbass.

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Multiple compilation of Krasnopol strikes deep within the Kupyansk region. One strike was geolocated about 37km from the front (Krasnopol-M2?).

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Another Krab destroyed in the Bakhmut area.

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Special forces unit 'Espaniola' (said to be football hooligans) have entered the Bakhmut front. In coordination with other units, they struck a Ukrainian ammo depot located in this forest line.

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Could be. There was no secondary explosion, despite the drone slamming into the missile containers.

Not decoy. There was definitely some vehicular movement and repositioning, and new nets were laid. The vehicle was empty or spent.

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Ukrainian BMP destroyed by the Russian 200th Brigade in the Bakhmut sector.

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The obligatory M777 destroyed by Lancet today.

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Crew of hero tank 'Alosha' interviewed and later got state awards.

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TOS-1A from the special unit 'Black Hussars' torched the positions of a Ukrainian pickup and it's company.

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Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
An attempt to shoot down a Russian Ka-52 helicopter from the Ukrainian Stugna ATGM. The date and location where the attack took place have not been released. It was not possible to hit the flying helicopter from the ATGM. The firing range of the ATGM "Stugna-P" is up to 5000 meters.






On the night of Wednesday, August 2, at 3:40 am, the Russian Armed Forces attacked an oil storage facility in Izmail, in the Odessa region, with Geran-2 drones. As a result of Russian drone strikes, a severe fire broke out at the Ukrainian oil storage facility in Izmail.



 
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