The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Pictures of the internals an American Phoenix Ghost shot down with an AK.
Unsurprisingly it's full of Chinese components. The build quality is also Houthi drone level, they used drywall screws to hold what looks like the IR camera in place, the wings look like they are made of wood.
The switchblade have similar looking wings, it would be hilarious if they were wooden as well.
Where are all the people making fun out of Russian drones earlier...
Unsurprisingly it's full of Chinese components. The build quality is also Houthi drone level, they used drywall screws to hold what looks like the IR camera in place, the wings look like they are made of wood.
The switchblade have similar looking wings, it would be hilarious if they were wooden as well.
Where are all the people making fun out of Russian drones earlier...
Here’s the thing. You are arguing about the urban fighting which my original comment did not dispute or mention. I am arguing over “Russians did not use massed indirect fire” when they clearly did use massed indirect fire. It wasn’t used in the urban area but in clearing out the rural fortifications, which still falls in line what the RAND Corporation said in 2015 that the Russians will use massed indirect fire.
I saw video of some M777s heading through Romania towards Ukraine with DGMS still attached. Maybe those were for US forces in Romania though.
Speaking about initial troop commitment. Maximum estimated number of BTGs at the start of operation was around 120. That's around 90k personnel. Add the LDPR militia and volunteers, and that would be another 30 to 40k. So amount of active combat personnel was around 130-150k. At first Rosguardia units were not involved, as initial operation was deemed to be quickly solved by negotiations. I guess idea was to induce APU to disarm Azov battalion and similar regiments, and then sign a formal treaty with Ukrainian government which would recognise Crimea Russian and Donbass independent. However APU was more loyal to nationalist battalions than Intelligence agencies reported and fought Russian forces instead of being idle or even joining them against nationalist battalions. Those Ukrainian negotiators who were pro-treaty were dealt with one way or another (remember murder of Denis Kireev by SBU). Even when preliminary deal was reached in Istanbul Ukrainian government immediately reneged on it (or was forced to renege by either UK or US) once troops were withdrawn from Kiev and Chernigov regions.
So the bet to quickly finish the operation did not played and Russian army started current campaign with massive fire sand grinding down Ukrainian forces to actually liberate Donbass by force.
Phase one of campaign haven't reached any major objectives but the failure is on intelligence side, not military. Once military started playing by the book, Ukrainian losses began to mount while Russian losses remained relatively low.
Current Western supplies are not enough to break the trend and supplying MLRS with long range ballistic missiles means supplying crews with them and direct engagement of NATO with Russia. That would mean Kalibr or Kinzhal attacks on supply lines within NATO territory (mostly Poland) or even couple of tactical nukes if those MLRS fire deep into Russia proper.
And supplying only ordinary 70km rockets British want to send themselves would not add much to current Ukrainian capability - they already have some Smerch MLRS with 90 km range.
Speaking about initial troop commitment. Maximum estimated number of BTGs at the start of operation was around 120. That's around 90k personnel. Add the LDPR militia and volunteers, and that would be another 30 to 40k. So amount of active combat personnel was around 130-150k. At first Rosguardia units were not involved, as initial operation was deemed to be quickly solved by negotiations. I guess idea was to induce APU to disarm Azov battalion and similar regiments, and then sign a formal treaty with Ukrainian government which would recognise Crimea Russian and Donbass independent. However APU was more loyal to nationalist battalions than Intelligence agencies reported and fought Russian forces instead of being idle or even joining them against nationalist battalions. Those Ukrainian negotiators who were pro-treaty were dealt with one way or another (remember murder of Denis Kireev by SBU). Even when preliminary deal was reached in Istanbul Ukrainian government immediately reneged on it (or was forced to renege by either UK or US) once troops were withdrawn from Kiev and Chernigov regions.
So the bet to quickly finish the operation did not played and Russian army started current campaign with massive fire sand grinding down Ukrainian forces to actually liberate Donbass by force.
Phase one of campaign haven't reached any major objectives but the failure is on intelligence side, not military. Once military started playing by the book, Ukrainian losses began to mount while Russian losses remained relatively low.
Current Western supplies are not enough to break the trend and supplying MLRS with long range ballistic missiles means supplying crews with them and direct engagement of NATO with Russia. That would mean Kalibr or Kinzhal attacks on supply lines within NATO territory (mostly Poland) or even couple of tactical nukes if those MLRS fire deep into Russia proper.
And supplying only ordinary 70km rockets British want to send themselves would not add much to current Ukrainian capability - they already have some Smerch MLRS with 90 km range.
Italian 155-mm FH-70 howitzers appeared in Ukraine. The howitzer was put into service in 1976. The FH70 is a towed/self-propelled howitzer. Howitzer rate of fire, up to 4-6 rounds per minute. The firing range of the FH-70 howitzer with conventional ammunition is 24 km, with American active-reactive ammunition up to 30 km. In general, the howitzer was successful for its time, provided that the gunners were well trained.
Since March of this year, Russia began using Su-57 aircraft in Ukraine, TASS reported. Although the bulk of the Ukrainian air defense launchers have already been disabled, there are still a number of S-300 air defense systems, Buk air defense systems and a large number of MANPADS. Su-57s in Ukraine “operate outside the zone of active destruction by air defense systems, using long-range missile weapons of the R-37M missile, with a flight range of 200 km.
The work of the combat crew of the Russian self-propelled guns 2S7M "Malka" in Ukraine. Self-propelled guns with a caliber of 203 mm are designed to solve special tasks - suppression and elimination of especially protected command posts, artillery, mortars, and armored vehicles.
Fragment of the battle of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine. In the video, you can see a shot of a mercenary from an RGW 90 MATADOR grenade launcher at a Russian BTR-80, despite 2 hits, the BTR continued the fight and retreated into the forest, where it was abandoned by the crew and blown up by the Ukrainian army. The video is incomplete, there are no shots of a grenade launcher hitting an armored personnel carrier.
Since March of this year, Russia began using Su-57 aircraft in Ukraine, TASS reported. Although the bulk of the Ukrainian air defense launchers have already been disabled, there are still a number of S-300 air defense systems, Buk air defense systems and a large number of MANPADS. Su-57s in Ukraine “operate outside the zone of active destruction by air defense systems, using long-range missile weapons of the R-37M missile, with a flight range of 200 km.
The work of the combat crew of the Russian self-propelled guns 2S7M "Malka" in Ukraine. Self-propelled guns with a caliber of 203 mm are designed to solve special tasks - suppression and elimination of especially protected command posts, artillery, mortars, and armored vehicles.
Fragment of the battle of foreign mercenaries in Ukraine. In the video, you can see a shot of a mercenary from an RGW 90 MATADOR grenade launcher at a Russian BTR-80, despite 2 hits, the BTR continued the fight and retreated into the forest, where it was abandoned by the crew and blown up by the Ukrainian army. The video is incomplete, there are no shots of a grenade launcher hitting an armored personnel carrier.
Article has 2 interesting comments.
No batteries. They are giving out Javelin missiles without batteries. Turns out, it wasn’t because the Javelin was too old with a useless battery but instead there was never a battery in the first place.
Why is the US shipping out Javelin launch units without batteries to Ukraine? Seems odd or maybe it got blown up by a missile.
Please post relevant commentary or thoughtful analysis when posting Twitter links or news URL links.
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Black Shark
Junior Member
If we want the know the opinion of Germany we will just ask the US.
Russian components! American components! All made in
Snark can be fun, but let's make the post better than a low quality one here. I've been juggling a lot and away from the thread, but I have to say the level of analysis here has dropped. A few of the new users seem to have writing styles very similar to those who have, ahem, gone missing.
The Russians are definitely making progress in the Donbass. The ground is solid now and the strengths of the Russian army can be played to, at least until heavy rains start again. Progress is still slow, but much better than it has been for, well, since the initial bog down after the start of the war.
It will be interesting to see if Severodonetsk and its potential kessel come to fruition with the Ukrainian troops there annihilated or captured. It would be a big deal and a propaganda coup for the Russians to have finally done so. Much like the final fall of Mauripol when Azovstal finally surrendered. OTOH, if Severodonetsk became another fortress city like Kharkov or Mauripol, the fight could grind on there and tie down a lot of troops for some time.
That said, the progress is not bloodless. I can totally believe the T-62s being warmed up and transferred to the front. The losses are pretty huge for a campaign between what ought to be very disparate nations. The T-62s I am sure are being transferred to the DNR and LNR, but even so it would strongly imply the depths of the Russian war stocks are not as deep as often advertised. Someone here posted the youtube link for an analysis of how many tanks the Russians actually had in reserve. While I am sure it was more accurate than the tens of thousands often thrown around, I'm sure the Russians have more than 3k tanks in reserve. That said, I suspect it's at most 3x that, probably 2x, the numbers in the video. The fact the T-62s are showing up does actually support that hypothesis.
For a moment, let's delve into the Russian losses. I have absolutely no insight into the Ukrainian losses. It is a pity the Russians have locked down their media so much. Someone doing what Oryx does from the Russian POV for the Ukrainian losses would be invaluable. Too bad, so sad, just think of the info war support Russian could of had. Zelensky did say Ukraine was losing something like 100 soldiers/day in a press conference. That would put their KIA at 9,500 and their total casualties about 38,000.
That said, as of the time of writing this post, it appears the Russians have materially lost 36 BTG and 12 tank battalions since the start of the war. This is just equipment count of tanks, IFVs, APCs, etc. It does not mean the BTG are totally destroyed: just that amount of equipment has been. I am only counting the combat equipment instead of supply and support. I am not counting artillery. Assuming there were 130 Russian BTG at the start of the war, Russia has lost over 27%. Their APCs+IFVs lost tracks that number as well. The tank losses are - proportionately - higher: over 56% of the tanks in 130 BTG have been lost.
Russian KIA, using the number of destroyed vehicles as a benchmark, looks to be about 7,500 and that gives us a total casualties of around 30k. That doesn't - again restating - take into account losses from the logistics folks getting ambushed or infantry getting butchered by drones, artillery or otherwise. It always sucks for the infantry, no matter whose side you're on.
The 'destroyed' BTG are not entire units. Most of the time, the equipment losses would dip below a certain level and the Russians are smart enough to pull back the troops. For whatever their faults, the Russians are not the mustache swirling villains with machine guns behind their troops. There is only so much a human can take before they need to be cycled to the rear to recover. Additionally, the Ukrainians, no matter how effective they may be (or are not), they are not magically wiping out entire BTG in one blow and the Russians would cycle back the remaining unit members once the unit is below doctrinal combat effectiveness.
I want to reiterate these are guessimates. Better than a guess - there is some data supporting - but not a solid estimate: sources of data are suspect to say the least.
Prognostication! Prophecy is the least profitable profession, as has been said.
The Russians will continue to grind forward. The last of the Lugansk Oblast should fall in the next week or three. The DNR fronts will keep pushing forward as well. I half expect another northern assault by the Russians towards either Kharkov, Sumy or even Kiev before the end of summer.
The Ukrainians are going to continue to resist. I really can't emphasize enough it's not the West being willing to fight to the last Ukrainian as the Ukrainians are fiercely fighting for their homes. (scholz definitely doesn't want to fight to the last Ukrainian or even first one, for that matter) I doubt there will be a general collapse. However, I find it very possible, even probable, the Ukrainians will be unable to mount significant offensives. However, I could also see some major offensives if the Ukrainians have been conserving their armor
I am curious what is happening in the Kharkov offensive by the Ukrainians: did it totally peter out? I am also curious about the Kherson offensive reported. Not going well? Or not enough information? Or...?
That said, what happens in July or August will be interesting. If any side is going to crack, it will be then.
Remember to doubt everything: no one is telling the truth in this war. Even the side we may support is doing their best boratina impression. Don't repost stuff others have curated already and posted. It hasn't been a problem in a while, but remember to be respectful. We learn by disagreeing, accepting when we are wrong, and changing our stance to reflect reality.
Take everything I write with a grain of salt. It's worth as much as you paid for it and, even you paid nothing, you probably paid too much. I have been wrong before and will be again.
Not sho stronk!
Russian Typhoon MRAP surviving IED Blast :
Russian Typhoon MRAP surviving IED Blast :