The War in the Ukraine

tankphobia said:

That all hinges on the huge amount of munitions expended would not be needed for a conflict with China.

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I think this is why there is hesitation over providing ATACMS or other similar munitions.

I also think that the willingness of European NATO members to provide Storm Shadows and other similar missiles, is a sign that those countries simply do not see themselves as serious participants in any Pacific Conflict.

Would not be surprised to see more PGMs being provided to Ukraine by European countries.

HighGround said:

I think this is why there is hesitation over providing ATACMS or other similar munitions.

I also think that the willingness of European NATO members to provide Storm Shadows and other similar missiles, is a sign that those countries simply do not see themselves as serious participants in any Pacific Conflict.

Would not be surprised to see more PGMs being provided to Ukraine by European countries.

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A few hundred storm shadows is not going to make or break a war with the PLA, they really should be more concern with how little ammo they are keeping in peace time. I think currently European countries are in the find out stage of letting their armed forces attrit to the levels they are today by overly relying on the US.

Hence you see the hard pivots seen in Germany, Poland etc.

sndef888 said:

Western media has started to shift away from "The counteroffensive isn't failing" "Coming weeks blah blah"

It's now more like "Risks are growing", "It's not a failure, but....." "slow pace...tough..etc"

I think the hope of Ukraine regaining territory is getting further and further away. If they continue this counteroffensive I won't be surprised if Russia launches their own offensive in a couple months, one that might actually be successful.

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Russian counteroffensive already began in the northern front where some bridgeheads have been made. According to a Ukrainian general (take it with a pinch of hyperbolic salt), Russians have more than 100,000 men, 900 tanks, 555 artillery pieces, 370 MLRS are in this sector. In my observation, Ukrainian mouth pieces exaggerate every number that comes out of their mouth.

In separate news---

Geran hit on an ammo depot. This went up spectacularly.


Ammo depot hit is in the Zhytomyr region.



Ukrainian T-64BV burns down in the Soledar sector.


Bradley cemetery near Rabotino.


Lancet hits a Krab.


Lancet hits a T-64BV in the Krasnolimansky region.


200th Guards Motorized Infantry Brigade scores multiple kills on Ukrainian armored column. An ATGM hits a T-64BV, followed by another then another. Then artillery hits the rest of the column with a BMP-1 destroyed in the rear. This should be located in the northern flank of Bakhmut region.


Lancet kills an IMR-2 engineering machine.


While drone ooperator observes a British supplied armored vehicle, another is blown up by a mine.


Lancet from the 14th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade takes down an Osa air defense system.


Artillery fire from the 14th Brigade against Ukrainian positions.

The 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade catches a Ukrainian vehicle caught in a mine field and finishes if off. This new brigade is the one that Wagner arrested it's commander for what seems to me practicing 'active defense' where one retreats, regroups and counterattacks. Like everyone else. The destruction of the vehicle, said to be a YPR-765, is in Southern Artemevosk area.



Towards Rabotino. Burning Ukrainian vehicles from combinations of artillery, FPV and ATGM attacks.



This unidentified Ukrainian SPG hit by Krasnopol at night.


Three armored vehicles killed by Ka-52s.


Lancet from the 98th VDV Guards Division takes out a 2S1 Gvozdika SPG.


Lancet from the 76th VDV Guards Division takes out a T-72B.


Lancet takes out Strela-10 in the Kherson area.

Some of these are YouTube versions from what's posted on Telegram before. You don't need a Telegram account to view them and better bandwidth too.

Ignore the title. An IMR-2 is a mine clearing vehicle based off from a T-72 chassis. Due to the relative rarity of these vehicles versus the everywhere minefields the Russians laid, losing one of these vehicles is an enormous loss.


ATGM crews on ATVs are a big problem for Ukrainian columns. They were first spotted in Kremenneya but now these crews and tactics play a crucial part in the Russian defense of Zaporzhyzhia.


A Ukrainian convoy gets eviscerated by ATGMs.


Bradley cemetery at Zaporhyzhia.


Ukrainian tank burns away at Klesheevka.

Extremely large detonation after a Geran-2 strike in the Zhytomyr region 2 days ago - the footage only leaked today

Explosion of an ammunition depot in the Crimea on July 22. A series of explosions occurred at a Russian ammunition depot in the Krasnogvardeisky district of Crimea, which was attacked by Ukrainian drones, according to some sources, missiles on the morning of July 22. It is unofficially reported that the warehouse of fuels and lubricants was also hit. The authorities decided to evacuate the population within a radius of 5 kilometers from the emergency site to temporary accommodation centers. To minimize risks, it was also decided to suspend traffic on the Crimean railway






A colossal explosion at the Ukrainian ammunition depot in the Zhytomyr region. A colossal explosion occurred in Chudnov in the Zhytomyr region on July 19. As reported from the field, Russian kamikaze drones "Geran" hit the Ukrainian ammunition depot on the territory of military unit A1979. What was stored in the warehouse is not reported.






Published footage of sending to Russia, the Ukrainian cruise missile Storm Shadow Anglo-French production. The electronic and warhead of the missile are intact, whether it was intercepted by electronic warfare systems or fell due to a malfunction is unknown. The Ukrainian missile is being sent to a Russian defense company for study, details were not released.

Multiple tiny explosions in the Zhytomyr ammo dump strike point to cluster munitions being stored there. See footage 01:20.


Good footage. Onyxs launched from Sevastopol landing in Odessa. You can see SAMs fired and flying to nowhere.




Ukrainian tank goes boom as it approaches Klesheevka, courtesy of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade.


Heavily damaged Kozak. Ukrainian soldier narrating how there was a big explosion at the wheels (mine?) Then a Lancet flew into it.


MaxxPro taken out by ATGM from the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade in the Southern Donetsk.


Cleverly hidden M777 still got destroyed by Lancet anyway.


Two more M777s down.



Third M55S goes down to new type of precision guided shell, which I presume might be a new improved Krasnopol type. As always new weapons are seen and tested in the Svatovo-Kremmenaya front.


Confirmed first loss of US BREMM, a M88A2 Hercules which is a tank recovery vehicle based on the M60 chassis.


Burnt Ukrainian BRAM-1, a Soviet tank recovery vehicle.


Monastery damaged by fallen missed Ukrainian SAM.

A major Russian breakthrough may be in progress. This morning I saw the first sighs on Suriyak's map:


It raised my eyebrow because this seems to be a pretty big gain for 1 day of fighting compared to before. After waiting for a while DPA came out with this update:

He seems to think a huge breakthrough is in progress, much more extensive than the above map suggests. And now Suriyak came back with this update:


Another sources say this offensive is headed by the elite 4th Guards Tank Division. Despite their elite status they haven't performed very well in the initial days of the war nor during the Kharkov offensive, so it would be interesting to see what they can achieve this time. It seems though they are breaking out in a fan in every direction.

tankphobia said:

A few hundred storm shadows is not going to make or break a war with the PLA, they really should be more concern with how little ammo they are keeping in peace time. I think currently European countries are in the find out stage of letting their armed forces attrit to the levels they are today by overly relying on the US.

Hence you see the hard pivots seen in Germany, Poland etc.

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All things are relative.
Existing Storm Shadow stock(@>3 mil. USD apiece back then - i.e. easily well over 4 mil in modern USD) is actually already very expensive.

Vise versa - massive investment in LACM capability(which allows now to produce them cheaper) costed VKS much of its tactical PGM capability - even modern AAMs could only be procured just a few years ago in significant numbers...and as a result, r-77-1s are actually very expensive for Russia.