The War in the Ukraine

Atomicfrog said:

It depend, if Minsk 3.0 recognize:

1- Novorossiyato be a free confederation and
2- the rest of Ukraine to be a ''Neutral'' landlocked country.

Putin will be gratefull to stop it's special operation. If not, he could even declare war and take it by force and laying waste on the rest of Ukraine.

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Yea, I agree... Your post perfectly summarizes Putin's choices in 4 simple lines.

Putin's Plan B goal should be to carve out as a defacto pro-Russian puppet state and sign a "neutrality" paper treaty. includes Kherson (occupied), Mariopul (occupied), Melitopol (occupied), Odessa (TBD), Kharkiv (TBD), Mykolaiv (TBD), Zaporizhzhia (TBD), Dnipropetrovsk (TBD). Ukraine effectively becomes a landlocked country.

Putin's Plan C goal should be to capture Donbass, then go the Sino-Vietnamese route by unilaterally declaring 'special operation complete' (e.g., kinsmen un-genocided, Azov fully 'de-nazified'), unilateral ceasefire and withdrawal of troops from frontlines of Kherson/Mariopoul (except some remaining forces to act as negotiation/leverage for a peace "neutrality" treaty, recognizing of DNR/LNR/Crimea), and then apply pressure on NATO to force Ukraine to accept ceasefire and terms of negotiating table.

Otherwise, Putin can go back to Plan A by full-scale war mobilization and just siege Kiev again until it succumbs to unconditional surrender, but it's unclear how far Putin is willing to escalate this conflict into national mobolization.

Putin's Plan C goal should be to capture Donbass, then go the Sino-Vietnamese route by unilaterally declaring 'special operation complete' (e.g., kinsmen un-genocided, Azov fully 'de-nazified'), unilateral ceasefire and withdrawal of troops from frontlines of Kherson/Mariopoul (except some remaining forces to act as negotiation/leverage for a peace "neutrality" treaty, recognizing of DNR/LNR/Crimea), and then apply pressure on NATO to force Ukraine to accept ceasefire and terms of negotiating table.

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Won't happen. China's "present" for the Sino-Vietnamese war after it definitively burnt their connections with the Soviet camp and joined the US camp was improved access to Western markets and technologies. China didn't mind that because they already lost access to most tech transfer they wanted from the Soviets. Russia has been cut out of the Western market with the sanctions. If they stop the special military operation they won't be getting anything more. So the logical attitude is to push for maximalist gains.
The US typically doesn't remove sanctions they put easily. Look at Cuba or Iran. The Soviet Union had also all sorts of sanctions applied to them. After the Soviet Union collapsed, some were taken out, but for most to be removed took over a decade, and after a couple of years of that the US started putting sanctions back in.

Today's SitReps. Perhaps Ukraine continues to fight for Severodonetsk in order to fix Russian forces in place whilst Ukraine develops a counter-offensive towards Kherson. We will see.

Ukraine have been doing counter offensives against Kherson ever since the Russians took Kherson. The first one was the artillery attack against that helicopter airbase. What makes you think this one will be any better?

And the "fixing" at Severodonetsk concept is BS. Ukraine is just doing their usual stich of fighting for every inch of ground. Will be just as idiotic as the Mariupol attempt if not more. I think more since it is closer to Russian supply lines and airbases. Just more meat for the meatgrinder.

Kadyrov is already boasting the Russians are in control of Severodonetsk.


""The initial plan was to liberate Severodonetsk in a week, but today I made corrections and set the task of taking control of the town in three days. As a result, our soldiers have done it even more quickly - in three hours," Kadyrov added."

I didn't realise this before but the M777 that Canada are sending to Ukraine:
Also have the DGMS removed.

I have my doubts

Maikeru said:

Today's SitReps. Perhaps Ukraine continues to fight for Severodonetsk in order to fix Russian forces in place whilst Ukraine develops a counter-offensive towards Kherson. We will see.

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Yes. in Precisely the same way the German 6th army continues to fight for Stalingrad in order to fix Russian forces on place while Germany develop a counter-offensive towards, where? Urals?

you don’t seem to exhibit this kind of second guessing when there is even a hintnof Russians not doing well. Copum, as you say?

Temstar said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1530595518639915008

I have my doubts

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If they try to advance near Kherson, prepared artillery and air power would stop them cold. They will also need to divide their fuel between military and civilian use with the destruction of their oil refineries and fuel depots.

If Kadyrov's claim about Severdonetsk is true then I think the Ukrainians are collapsing. Severdonetsk could have held Russian forces up for weeks, why give it up unless they're planning a full retreat?

gelgoog said:

I doubt Ukraine would sign away territory the Russians don't control. Heck they still deny losing control over anything including Crimea.
They won't be giving Odessa and Nikolayev oblasts away without fighting for it first. If a cease fire is signed it won't include either.

I suspect Russia will continue this campaign taking Russian majority areas and then do a decapitation strike on remaining government infrastructure to try to get an unconditional surrender. But in the long run Russia could also continue this kind of campaign indefinitely I think.
The main combat phase of the Second Chechen War was over 8 months. And Chechnya is a mere blip in comparison with Ukraine.

There is no way a deal would be signed which would allow Ukraine to rebuild its army. Not after the equipment and manpower losses Russia had thus far. Either Ukraine is neutralized or it won't stop. Ukraine, if it becomes a neutral state, will become demilitarized and lose all heavy weapons. The Ukraine army will be a glorified police force.

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You think Russia will annex Kiev?

I think the east/Russian speaking parts of Ukraine and land bridge to Transnistria are the minimum, with the rest of Ukraine as a demilitarised Belarus type country. Even without a military and being neutral on paper, an independent Ukraine would be a mistake IMO. They'd have billions pumped into them by US/EU and they'll forever be a problem, it'll be another Israel except on Russian borders. Just deal with the problem now otherwise you will have to invade them again 20 years in the future.

Mi-26 in combat zone. Also the area looks green and canal waters. if the land is so attractive for farming. there is no way this thing will be solved soon.