The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
I am starting to see images emerging on telegram from Severedonetsk showing abandoned Ukrainian equipment:
Rumor is that they are withdrawing to Lysychansk, but with the bridges down they are leaving their equipment behind.
I am also seeing the tone change in the western media about the situation in Donbas, this is the most unfavorable so far fresh today:
"onslaught"
Going across the river and up the hill isnt going to help much. Have the Russians closed the pocket?
No they haven't. Ukranian did a counterattack yesterday or the day before and pushed LPR off the village of Berestove which straddles the T1302 highway, however LPR have pulled back to surrounding area around the village and say they have the road within sight and have their weapons trained at the road and will destroy anything that moves along it. So supplies to Severodonetsk/Lysychansk would still be going through but at a minimal rate.
Withdraw Russia's troops ? Are they trying to be funny ? It was the call to do in last December with a list of sweet concessions from Karensky...
I heard the Su-35 was "shot down" over Kherson. Curiously a day before Russian MoD announce that a MiG-29 was shot down over Mykolaiv.
I feel they start to "reflect" each other.
But anyway recycling old image is bad..
Russia won't accept a Minsk 3.0 deal. I doubt they would allow a deal which doesn't involve Ukraine demilitarizing and probably the long term stationing of Russian troops in Ukrainian territory to guarantee they demilitarize. Even then a lot of people in Russia are claiming a post war Finland type of deal won't be acceptable either since Finland proved unreliable long term with them now wanting to join NATO.
I doubt Russia will stop before they get the whole of Donbass and probably Kherson and Zaporizhzhia including the city.
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It depend, if Minsk 3.0 recognize:
1- Novorossiyato be a free confederation and
2- the rest of Ukraine to be a ''Neutral'' landlocked country.
Putin will be gratefull to stop it's special operation. If not, he could even declare war and take it by force and laying waste on the rest of Ukraine.
I doubt Ukraine would sign away territory the Russians don't control. Heck they still deny losing control over anything including Crimea.
They won't be giving Odessa and Nikolayev oblasts away without fighting for it first. If a cease fire is signed it won't include either.
I suspect Russia will continue this campaign taking Russian majority areas and then do a decapitation strike on remaining government infrastructure to try to get an unconditional surrender. But in the long run Russia could also continue this kind of campaign indefinitely I think.
The main combat phase of the Second Chechen War was over 8 months. And Chechnya is a mere blip in comparison with Ukraine.
There is no way a deal would be signed which would allow Ukraine to rebuild its army. Not after the equipment and manpower losses Russia had thus far. Either Ukraine is neutralized or it won't stop. Ukraine, if it becomes a neutral state, will become demilitarized and lose all heavy weapons. The Ukraine army will be a glorified police force.
They won't be giving Odessa and Nikolayev oblasts away without fighting for it first. If a cease fire is signed it won't include either.
I suspect Russia will continue this campaign taking Russian majority areas and then do a decapitation strike on remaining government infrastructure to try to get an unconditional surrender. But in the long run Russia could also continue this kind of campaign indefinitely I think.
The main combat phase of the Second Chechen War was over 8 months. And Chechnya is a mere blip in comparison with Ukraine.
There is no way a deal would be signed which would allow Ukraine to rebuild its army. Not after the equipment and manpower losses Russia had thus far. Either Ukraine is neutralized or it won't stop. Ukraine, if it becomes a neutral state, will become demilitarized and lose all heavy weapons. The Ukraine army will be a glorified police force.
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The Europeans basically wrote the Minsk 2.0 and Minsk 1.0 deals. They also made the deal with Yanukovych to make early elections.
Every single deal was torpedoed. Just a piece of paper to delay when they were losing. And Europe had definite leverage to force Ukraine to keep their word to the Minsk 2.0 deal. They were the major creditor of Ukraine. They could have done the same thing Biden did when he threatened to pull their IMF loan if they didn't do what he wanted. They could have threatened to pull the billions in aid the EU were giving Ukraine. Which was actually more money than the IMF deal.
Every single deal was torpedoed. Just a piece of paper to delay when they were losing. And Europe had definite leverage to force Ukraine to keep their word to the Minsk 2.0 deal. They were the major creditor of Ukraine. They could have done the same thing Biden did when he threatened to pull their IMF loan if they didn't do what he wanted. They could have threatened to pull the billions in aid the EU were giving Ukraine. Which was actually more money than the IMF deal.