The War in the Ukraine

tankphobia said:

Seems like a questionable move to get people who were almost part of a mutiny to train your army... I thought remaining wagner would be used like expendable shock troops.

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Supposedly not that many Wagner troops participated. That is why the MoD is giving them the contracts. So they are definitely trustworthy. As for expending them, that is exactly the same mistake Russia committed in the beginning: sending every single professional soldier to join infantry and expecting them to perform like infantry. You need trainers. Without them, the institutional knowledge will just disappear and you are tasked with rebuilding everything from scratch. Back in the early years of GWOT, US SOCOM units specifically held back a certain number of SOF personal from going into combat purely due to this reason.

tankphobia said:

what is the effect of losing a few thousand light infantry on the frontlines i.e Wagner? Not all of the remaining 17,000 ish that are left will be willing to sign contracts with the regular army and mercenaries have the advantage that they can be sent to plug any gaps flexibly, rather than dragging whole brigades/btgs around.

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You underestimate the human resource pool of the Wagner, which by the end of the Battle of Bakhmut had expanded to 26 detachments, close to 50,000 men in strength, and about 25% of the total strength of the Russian front in terms of establishment.

Moreover, the Wagner was not just light infantry. Wagner had acquired at least 10 Pantsir S1 air defence systems as early as the American bombed them at Syria; with the addition of Russian Defence Ministry supplements during the Battle of Bakhmut and Wagner's own captures, Wagner may actually have had more than about two battalions of tanks and many more air defence systems and artillery. In other words, each Wagner detachment was actually combined, albeit with more infantry on its establishment.

And as one of the few Russian units that can afford to die and is willing to do so, the lack of Wagner makes me wonder about the Russian army's ability to attack afterwards. The members of the Wagner I even think had a bit mental illness, and at Bakhmut they would have been willing to go to the tops of the buildings they took to wave flags as proof that they had come to Bakhmut.

An excellent clip showcasing an Ukrainian assault on a Russian defense position. Some thoughts on the video. Note: I am not an infantry man or a member of armed forces, just someone with a decade long interest in the military (I'm sure anyone who played Call of Duty or Hearts of Iron can relate).


The video in questions shows Ukraine's 28th Mechanized Brigade attacking a Russian defense position. The tweet states that Ukraine claims 35 Russian servicemen killed. I did not see that many men in the picture.

UR-77 Meteorit is used to either clear, or check for mines. Two charges were used. After their employment, three Ukrainian BMPs moved forward in a single line-column while applying suppressive fire at the Russian defense line. Upon reaching the first tree line, infantry disembarked the BMPs, squad leaders carefully moved forward towards the enemy as the BMPs continued to provide suppressive fire. A clip of three Russian servicemen fleeing is seen at the end.

My Analysis:

I hypothesize this is a probing force, meant to clear the first line of contact, so that more Ukrainian forces can either help clear out the rest of this defensive line, or set up control over this area to continue moving forward.

I did not see 35 Russian defenders and I am quite skeptical that this clip shows more than a squad on the Russian side. This first line of contact seems to be thinly manned. If I had to guess, this is the first contact line, or a low-priority area, mean to notify the main Russia defense force responsible for this piece of general AO.

In particular, it looks like a flare of some kind was shot at 01:00. At least that's what I think it is, and it would certainly feed into my theory.

There is no ATGM fire in response to the BMPs. This is drone footage, so Ukraine very likely has the superior battlespace awareness in this engagement. The BMPs are firing in the general direction of the Russians, indicating that they are aware of where at least some of the Russian defenders are hiding.

The assault team is careful and slow, which makes sense given that they suspect there are mines in this area. The UR-77 hypothetically cleared the path between the two tree lines of mines, giving access to both the infantry and BMPs to drive towards the second tree line.

With coordination, numbers, and battlespace awareness firmly on the side of the Ukrainian attacker, the Russians' decision to withdraw here is perfectly sensible. High ground is not visible around here, there aren't any substantial fortifications or operationally important reasons to hold this ground. At least visible in the footage.

Regarding training; there is no proof that Ukraine has enjoyed superior training in this clip. Nor do I think that training/equipment plays a decisive role in these actions. Instead the three factors mentioned before, are much more important.

I hypothesize, that if there was a real Russian force defending this area, there would be a recon team from high ground or a drone, giving directions to the Russian defenders, making this assault much, much more difficult.

RedMetalSeadramon said:

Ive always considered those worthless gimmicks. The overwhelming cost on any aircrafts are its propulsions, for drones its sensors and communications. Saving money on "airframe" by making it out of cardboard is a waste of everything else.

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There's a upside that you can literally pack thousands in a single container due to flatpack cardboard, but the $3k price tag is quite excessive when you can build a FPV suicide UAV for like $500.

More destroyed Ukrainian vehicles from Novodonetsk. I made sure I don't include the pics with bodies, only vehicles.










They include a Kirpi, two Husky, three Mastiff and an AMX-10R.

More destroyed vehicles this one a common BMP-2 but you also have a Pantera T6 from the Emirates.


Russian FPV drone madness continues. Hits include an ex-Russian T-80 trophy tank, a BMP-2 and an M113.

Temstar said:

That's extraordinary mine density in that 11 minute Bradley video.

Was the Ukrainian medic firing a rifle at their own Bradley to try to get the crew to drive closer? Seeing as they appear to be all AP mines (butterfly mines I'm guessing) I also don't understand why the Bradley wouldn't move closer.

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They were shooting the ground in front of them hoping to clear a path of mines using bullets before trying to walk across to the Bradley, and failed badly. That was a pretty horrifying illustration of just how insanely hard to spot and clear modern anti-personal mines are.

The one really unexpected thing of note I say was how the guy who used his assault rifle as a plank seemed to have stumbled on a potentially workable hack. Because while he set off a mine, it didn’t seem to have done much, or any damage to his feet and legs. Certainly noting like the horror his team mates suffered.

That gave me a probably stupid, but maybe just workable desperate measure if you find yourself in such a minefield - strip out your ballistic plates and tie them under your feet like giant snowshoes, with ballistic face facing down of course.

If you do step on a petal mine, it will probably break your foot/leg due to the kinetic force, but the ballistic plate should absorb the shrapnel and blast effect so at least your feet and legs won’t get shredded to ribbons, so you won’t automatically loose your foot and/or leg. So less risk of bleeding out, and at least you have a shot at keeping all your limbs and making a full recovery.

In his latest podcast, M. Koffman explained that the Russians are not receiving the Ukrainian attack statically. Instead, they are replying with localized counterattacks and are in effect conducting maneuver defense. The fact that Ukraine has made some small progress is not an indication of either success or failure at this point. The idea of defense in depth which the Russians have prepared is to trade territory in return for attriting your opponent.

Overall, in his opinion the offensive is not going as well as the Ukrainians have hoped for and the question now is whether this delay will cause them to run out of ammunition supplies before reaching their objectives. The slow advance is giving the Russian extra time to harden the defenses at the points of highest pressure.

Zichan said:

In his latest podcast, M. Koffman explained that the Russians are not receiving the Ukrainian attack statically. Instead, they are replying with localized counterattacks and are in effect conducting maneuver defense. The fact that Ukraine has made some small progress is not an indication of either success or failure at this point. The idea of defense in depth which the Russians have prepared is to trade territory in return for attriting your opponent.

Overall, in his opinion the offensive is not going as well as the Ukrainians have hoped for and the question now is whether this delay will cause them to run out of ammunition supplies before reaching their objectives. The slow advance is giving the Russian extra time to harden the defenses at the points of highest pressure.

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Well, isn’t that the bare minimum the Ukrainians should have been expecting from the get go?

They are facing a real, professional military and not a bunch of amateurs after all. Only idiots would sit statically behind walls and allow the enemy to mass unimpeded to attack when they are good and ready. Or sit back and watch when the enemy attacks another stretch of your lines.

With the way this offensive have been going for the Ukrainians, I also don’t think ammo is their biggest problem, because they will run out of men and machines long before they run out of ammo.

In fact, all this focus on ammo seems like low-key cope to me, since the implied takeaway is that the Ukrainians are doing well and killing Russians good (so please send more ammo!), whereas the reality is a lot (if not most) of their troops and armour are getting killed and turned back before they are even in range to engage the Russians. But that’s bad optics since ‘let’s win by bleeding the Russians dry of ammo before we run out of lives’ is not a great rallying call, and it’s not like there is any scope for the west to send their men to help Ukraine grind down Russian ammo supplies.

Zichan said:

Overall, in his opinion the offensive is not going as well as the Ukrainians have hoped for and the question now is whether this delay will cause them to run out of ammunition supplies before reaching their objectives. The slow advance is giving the Russian extra time to harden the defenses at the points of highest pressure.

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He was very charitable to Ukraine in the podcast.

We don't have the full picture yet, but Ukraine has not demonstrated an answer to Russia's recon-fire complex and layered defensive lines.

If they had an answer, they would've shown it, but this is not a force that can favorably trade this sort of material attrition in an offensive action. It just isn't. Ukraine does not have a full defense industry anymore, it is heavily reliant on foreign equipment. Which means living paycheck-to-paycheck on the grace of Western sponsors.

Temstar said:

It's surprising that Lukashenko is comfortable with Prigozhin taking up residence along with a few thousand of his most loyal followers given what just happened. I don't buy all the memes that Wagner will be attacking Kiev from the North after the settle in, that border is fortified and heavily mined after 2022.

Perhaps aside from Africa business new Wagner will be providing security against partisan groups like Belarus version of Freedom of Russia Legion.

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Now, how smart is to have Wagner in Belarus, where Russian tactical nuclear warheads will soon be?