The War in the Ukraine

Few guys mentioned something about "I don't buy the 5D chess narrative.

Chess requiring a partner whom want to win as well, in a zero sum game.

The only place where the illusion of 5D chess works the theatre, beacause that is a prescripted chain of events.

FriedButter said:

Exile to Belarus I guess. More details to come when article is updated.

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So the other things include.

-Wagner troops who did not participle will sign contracts with MOD
-Wagner troops who did will not be persecuted
-Prigozhin will be moved to Belarus and have his case dropped.
-No discussion about MOD personnel change happened.

FriedButter said:

Exile to Belarus I guess. More details to come when article is updated.

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So the end result is approximately a division deployed to the Polish border?

Andy1974 said:

So the end result is approximately a division deployed to the Polish border?

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Isn’t it just Prigozhin? Unless Wagner has a branch in Belarus then it’s just going to be him.

FriedButter said:

Isn’t it just Prigozhin? Unless Wagner has a branch in Belarus then it’s just going to be him.

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Fate of the 25,000 seems a bit ambiguous at this point. Those Wagner units that didn’t take part get to join the regular army though.

FriedButter said:

Isn’t it just Prigozhin? Unless Wagner has a branch in Belarus then it’s just going to be him.

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Andy1974 said:

So the end result is approximately a division deployed to the Polish border?

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According to the article:
PMC contractors who refused to take part in the mutiny – and whole units did not – will be allowed to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, Peskov stated.

Additionally, supposedly some Wagner soldiers’ houses are getting raided.
Regardless, that means the Russian government is going to dissolve Wagner and separate Prigozhin from them. There are other variables we should wait for such as the status of the leadership of the MoD. Markoz 81’s perspectives on Russia’s political dynamics are extremely intriguing and could partially explain some things. However as always, until more information comes out, we should still wait and see.

LawLeadsToPeace said:

According to the article:
PMC contractors who refused to take part in the mutiny – and whole units did not – will be allowed to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, Peskov stated.

Additionally, supposedly some Wagner soldiers’ houses are getting raided.
Regardless, that means the Russian government is going to dissolve Wagner and separate Prigozhin from them. There are other variables we should wait for such as the status of the leadership of the MoD. Markoz 81’s perspectives on Russia’s political dynamics are extremely intriguing and could partially explain some things. However as always, until more information comes out, then we should still wait and see.

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Disolve or split? As I said, the fate of those 25000 that DID take part is unclear.

Andy1974 said:

Disolve or split? As I said, the fate of those 25000 that DID take part is unclear.

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25,000 is only brought up by Prigozhin and we can’t take his word for it. Considering the fact that he said that Wagner took major hits in Bahkmut, I reckon that the actual force is much smaller. In addition, considering the fact that he openly defied the Russian government, do you really think the Russian government will allow him to keep even part of his power regardless of the power dynamics mentioned by Markoz? The statement about PMC’s signing contracts indicates that the MoD is at the very least planning to absorb them one way or another. That also indicates the intention of dissolving Wagner.

Temstar said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672464280086802432

To be honest right now it's feeling less like a coup and more like a really lively pay dispute.

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There were multiple times when Police forces in some country (France for one) went on a strike and protest, only in return beaten by other police forces (Gandamarie). Luckily those protesting polices did not take their guns and gears.

enroger said:

I agree Wagner needs to be dissolved, but there is a time and place for everything and this is the absolute worst time for it.

Best move is to never let Wagner form in the first place or at least limit it's size.

Second best move is to try to dissolve Wagner after the war, give Prigozhin some big fat prize to keep him happy or whatever.

Move on them now? In the middle of the war, in the middle of Ukr counteroffensive?

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IMO, the only way acceptable for Putin is to pardon all Wagner soldiers in the mutiny who were only acting under order. Any officier including Prigozhin must be put on trial openly.

Even though Wagner is a commercial company working with the government, in times of war the government has absolute dictation including forfeit any contract obligations. That means Wagner is no different from regular citizen or soldiers in the rugular army. Any act of disobidience of Wagner is NOT a disbute of contract terms but treason. The only thing that Wagner could have done when dispute with the army arised was to disband itself and stop fullfilling the contract as they claimes that the army has broken it. And even so the army still have the legal upper hand because of the mobolisation.

This means that it is Russian state's authority and legitimacy being openly challenged by a rouge soldier. There is no way Russian government would let it go other ways even if the war on Ukraine is at risk. Otherwise the Russian state's authority is finished, there will be more such actions from various sectors including regular Russian army and civilian refusing to serve the war.