Well, IMO both came to the conclusion , against each other both will lose … so even if no true solution on how to proceed is known, this is anyway better than open full civil war.
From my point of view there was never a threat of civil war. For civil wars to become viable conflict must emerge along the fault lines
between factions. Prigozhin is not a faction that is hostile to the faction currently in power. He is part of it. He has been, is and will be Putin's man.
A faction in power can't coup itself.
When a faction in power loses control over its parts then the rival faction steps in and addresses the power vacuum. Did you see the military pacify Wagner? No, it was Wagner attempting to pacify the military.
So that means that today's mutiny was staged to trigger panic reactions and pre-empt any actual coup that Putin feared could emerge from the military.
You can't understand what happened today by applying western-democratic political logic because Russia is not a western democracy. Russia despite its modern facade is a traditional state entity - a typical hard power autocracy where physical security determines the outcome of political process.
The natural source of physical security is the military which is why most autocracies are military dictatorships. Russia has however developed an organised state security apparatus that countered the military throughout the Soviet era. That state security apparatus is represented by Putin and his "sovereign democracy" model of United Russia. Wagner has been explicitly a part of that system from its inception.
Wagner is FSB's army. Not Rosgvardia - they are internal troops for tasks inside Russia. Wagner is FSB's troops for tasks outside Russia.
The military also shouldn't be confused for the conscripts. In Russia "the military" refers exclusively to the cadres and military intelligence services in particular.
The entire political dynamic in Putin's Russia therefore revolves around suppressing the military and separating them from potential allies in the oligarch class that would either give rise to a traditional military dictatorship or lead to fragmentation of the state.
Putin's power is weakened because while the invasion of Ukraine is waged nominally by the military it was not orchestrated by the military but by state security.
The military does not really bear the brunt of the war since the highest casualty rates come from contract and mobilised personnel - not the cadres. So while the military superficially is the losing side it is Putin who is the real loser. And the longer the failed war in Ukraine lasts the weaker he becomes. The military explicitly ceded all political responsibility to political authorities and are just "following the orders" and "doing their best".
In technical terms Russian military was in "Italian strike" mode since the invasion began, with regular legal obstruction. It was as close to a creeping coup in extreme slow motion as you could imagine it. That forced Putin to publicly distance himself from the responsibility for the war so blame could be shifted onto the military. But when he did that he automatically created the impression that he was not in control of the military. He can't overtly exert political control because then he will start bearing the responsibility for the war so he must keep his distance while at the same time remain somehow at the helm.
Putin didn't want to change anything. He wanted the situation to stay as before but it was slipping away from him.
This is where the staged mutiny becomes useful. By undercutting the entire system Putin temporarily improves his personal position. The mutiny caused people all over the country to record public declarations of support to Putin and forced the military to choose sides - specifically to choose Putin's side.
The military was shown publicly defending Putin and that was all that he needed. Now obviously the damage has been done and the consequences will be unavoidable in the long term but in the short term Putin reminded everyone in the displeased military cadres who is in charge. At least for now.
It was a very desperate play which shows that Putin feels very weak. The purges are likely already underway and more loyalists will be introduced into the military which will change nothing substantial apart from temporarily improving control over the structures which will perhaps be sufficient to do something about Wagner. Putin is in survival mode at this point and he is so weak that he can't directly remove high military commanders and has to resort to staging mutinies.
Also note that Prigozhin spoke today with GRU's deputy and coordinated the actions in Rostov with local GRU. That alone was a signal that it's staged.
Remember what i once said: GRU is providing physical security to nuclear weapons. It's the trump card of Russian military intelligence and the main reason why the Russian military hasn't been thoroughly purged by FSB.
So the show must go on in the circus. The bear is bleeding more than before but it's still doing its tricks and will for some time because it's after all a big animal. It's a bear, not a ferret. I'll take a while before it doesn't have strength to dance and juggle balls anymore. Today was a fun wild ride but it's always useful to learn the basics of "real politics" so as not to get confused too easily.
