The War in the Ukraine

SampanViking

The Capitalist
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
I am posting a link from Kings and General's YouTube channel regarding their analysis of the 1st phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. According to the headline and content itself Ukraine has won the 1st round so to speak. Since am not well versed to military tactics, Russian and Ukrainian weaponries including NATO hardwares I would be curious to know what most of you folks here that are more well read into the operational art of war.



@SampanViking I hope that am not in violation of the rules by posting the link to this video. If so please let me know and just remove this post. Thank you sir.
No problem at all. I am sure that many will be happy to put it under scrutiny and put its assertions to the test.
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
That sad Tor have a major blindspot :x around that building.

Ok this is getting spicy now. Allegedly a sat image showing the heat signature of the ship..
View attachment 88379

Pure BS The image was SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar)

and i wonder how SAR detects or image fire. and i found the location...


You can even find it yourself in Sentinel Hub's EO browser. Which kinda weird as the Dumskaya article DOES NOT include location.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I'm not at all surprised that US sharing ISR data with Ukrainian is giving them a lot of success, I think that's plenty clear since early days of this war.

I am surprised by that statement the Americans made. It suggests they are worried about further Russian escalation? Against possible US assets?

According to Shilao there's an old man, an Ukrainian weapon expert in Beijing who came from Nikolaev who's been hitting the sauce hard in recent days following Moskva's sinking. He's very familiar with the Slava class and the last gig he did before leaving Ukraine for China was on the R-360 Neptune missile, so you can see why the news has hit him hard. Both PLA and North Korea military representative has been trying to get out of him information about the missile.

Neptune is based on Kh-35. Ukrainians purchased some clandestinely from Black Sea Fleet to further develop them into Neptune for export (hence the North Korean interest, they are also facing a certain 10,000 ton+ warship class). You have people like old man who knows both the original missile as well as old Soviet radar very well so they changed Neptune's seeker enough that it's tricky to defend against for old Soviet ships. Nevertheless it's not exactly bleeding edge ASM and if the Americans wanted Moskva sunk it seemed like they would have sent them something more advanced, so I'm not discounting that it may be true and the US was not directly involved.

The US is right to be worried because providing targeting data is directly being involved in the kill chain. That is arguably beyond the threshold of observer and venturing into the territory of being a direct and active participant in the conflict. At a minimum, it could give Russia legal pretext to shoot down US recon aircraft under the allowed UN legal framework around legitimate self defence.

Remember, America absolutely do not want to be directly involved in the fight in Ukraine. So what happens if Russia cites this as evidence that America is now a direct participant in the conflict and declares their air assets over the Black Sea legitimate targets? They could probably shoot down a global hawk or similar unmanned platform to prove their seriousness and what is America going to do? Sanction them so more? Start WWIII?

The current ‘rules’ of engagement in place are massively favourable to NATO and Ukraine, so it’s very much in Russia’s interests to reshuffle the deck in the hopes of getting a better hand. America would be foolish gift Putin a golden opportunity to do so.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Do we actually know if this is what is indeed happening?
TO me it would make more sense to send these conscripts to the rear echelons and free up more professionals and reservists to go to the front.
Then again, if you are counting on massive infusions of modern NATO heavy weapons and you need the time to train up your best to operate them competently, you may simply need fodder to literally clog up the front lines and keep them as near static as possible while your "New Model Army" is being trained up.

Why exactly they do need this mobilisation is a mystery to me. Surely they have enough pro's and reservists in the field already?
Old men and boys are what you call up when everything is gone and you are facing overwhelming odds.

Correct me if I am wrong, but is not the actual Ukrainian Military over quarter of a million strong without counting the National Guard, Border Force and Reservists?

It’s my assessment based on the strategies being used, especially the Ukrainian attempt to hold the Donbas conventionally against an enemy with undeniable air superiority (even if they do suck badly at using said air superiority for ground attack); the many Ukrainian mobilisations; the way the Ukrainians are going through NATO supplied light infantry weapons; videos and pictures posted by Russian forces that I choose not to share on Ukrainian dead; and first hand accounts from the foreign ‘Reddit battalion’ who rabbited, which seems to be echoed by Ukrainian POWs and active units like the one you posted about a unit refusing to follow orders anymore. Although I treat these last sources as highly suspect since it mostly consists of guys speaking in Ukrainian so I cannot verify what has been said and POWs have been well documented to say whatever their captures need them say.

At the start of the war, the bulk of Ukrainian’s best troops were in or around the Donbas. I have seen no indication to suggest that has fundamentally changed. Which means it’s these best units that are now being engaged by the Russians, out in clean open field direct engagements. It does not look great for those units as far as I can see.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I'm not at all surprised that US sharing ISR data with Ukrainian is giving them a lot of success, I think that's plenty clear since early days of this war.

I am surprised by that statement the Americans made. It suggests they are worried about further Russian escalation? Against possible US assets?

According to Shilao there's an old man, an Ukrainian weapon expert in Beijing who came from Nikolaev who's been hitting the sauce hard in recent days following Moskva's sinking. He's very familiar with the Slava class and the last gig he did before leaving Ukraine for China was on the R-360 Neptune missile, so you can see why the news has hit him hard. Both PLA and North Korea military representative has been trying to get out of him information about the missile.

Neptune is based on Kh-35. Ukrainians purchased some clandestinely from Black Sea Fleet to further develop them into Neptune for export (hence the North Korean interest, they are also facing a certain 10,000 ton+ warship class). You have people like old man who knows both the original missile as well as old Soviet radar very well so they changed Neptune's seeker enough that it's tricky to defend against for old Soviet ships. Nevertheless it's not exactly bleeding edge ASM and if the Americans wanted Moskva sunk it seemed like they would have sent them something more advanced, so I'm not discounting that it may be true and the US was not directly involved.
I don't think it was a Neptune that hit that ship. If Ukraine had them, why did it take so long for them to be used? You had Russian ships casually unloading in Ukrainian ports as if they were home ports. Not to mention the activity around Odessa. Like a lot of Russian/Ukrainian projects the Neptune seems to exist on paper only.

I'm sure it's a western missile, likely British. The British defence minister has had a conversation leaked where he talked about giving Ukraine anti ship capability and the government are saying it officially. It would explain the delay we saw as Ukrainians had to integrate the missile.
 
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