The War in the Ukraine

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I am posting a link from Kings and General's YouTube channel regarding their analysis of the 1st phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. According to the headline and content itself Ukraine has won the 1st round so to speak. Since am not well versed to military tactics, Russian and Ukrainian weaponries including NATO hardwares I would be curious to know what most of you folks here that are more well read into the operational art of war.



@SampanViking I hope that am not in violation of the rules by posting the link to this video. If so please let me know and just remove this post. Thank you sir.
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'm still curious on what forces Russians still had in Belarus. They may still use Belarus airbases and land based installations to deploy things like Iskanders from there and S-400's are still apparently in Mazar.

But do they still have ground forces ? things like "BTG's"
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Okay... Seems like for whatever reason some Ukrainians think there's an attack coming for the bridge linking Crimea to Russia.
The Ukrainians have been talking about that even before the war started. Ever since the bridge was built really.
The bridge is not as critical as it used to be since the Russians got the land connection to Donbass via Mariupol.
And the Russians told more than once they consider it as infrastructure in Russian territory and would retaliate in kind so...

The cringeness of it aside are the Russian units in the south that originally launched from Crimea still supplied from Crimea? Because that's actually a really long supply tail if the supplies for them actually come from Krasnodar or something.
Once the railways through Mariupol get restored Crimea will be less relevant in terms of supplies. Even if the bridge is taken out the Russians can still carry cargo via ship to Crimean ports.

The Crimea bridge would have been a good target for Ukraine in the first two weeks when they still had some kind of air power.
They had other ways to try to take it out it they wanted to. And most of their "air power" has terrible air to ground capability in the first place. Maybe they shouldn't have taken that money from the US to dismantle all those Tu-22M3s and Tu-160s...

That bridge have a railroad half that can be used to route supply all over the south of Ukraine. It's clearly an asset. It could resupply Kherson fast if the railroad bridge crossing the Dnieper is still in one piece.
It is not a matter of "could" but IS. They announced there was a regular freight link from Crimea to Kherson like yesterday.
Passenger services are supposed to come afterwards.

I'm still curious on what forces Russians still had in Belarus. They may still use Belarus airbases and land based installations to deploy things like Iskanders from there and S-400's are still apparently in Mazar.
I think part of the 1st Guards Tank Army and the VDV units which attacked the airport near Kiev should be around Belarus.
Part of the 1st Guards Tank Army should be around Kharkov. But I think not all of it. And I haven't heard of the VDV again.

ISW update:
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"Russia may change the status of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, possibly by merging them into a single “Donbas Republic” and/or by annexing them directly to Russia."

It is questionable that their annexation will happen the short term. Both have opened embassies in Moscow.
Their merger into a federate structure was discussed more than once but never happened before. If this did happen it would make their annexation by Russia later more difficult. I see no reason for Russia to change the status quo. They just need to make proper security and economic arrangements and put them into a common area.

"Russian forces have apparently decided to seize the Azovstal plant through ground assault and will likely continue operations accordingly."

They do not have enough troops to do an assault into those positions. They have just taken some buildings around the bunkers to reduce the security area. They will need the Chechens to attack the built up areas around Donbass soon. In fact they are already there.

"Ukrainian counteroffensives around Kharkiv City may unhinge Russian positions northeast of the city, possibly forcing the Russians to choose between reinforcing those positions or abandoning them if the Ukrainians continue to press their counterattack."

The Russians cannot allow the Ukrainians to capture or damage the railways. So I doubt they will let them advance much more.
 
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Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
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What in the world, not sure what to make of this.

Well. whatever it is, it needs to be made accountable and transparent. Unlike those Syrian crowdfunding in my country which.. didnt really end well. and So does crowdfunding for aircrafts. There was one here too but no real progress nor seem any measure of transparency on collected funds.
 
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