The current Russian Federation is starting to resemble Warlord Era China. Fragmentation of military power within a state. We already has Kadyrov with his own private army but the last few years this Jevgeni Prigozjin has joined the ranks as second significant feudal criminal Russian warlord.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
Before Prigozhin it was only Chechnya... If there is a lesson to be learned from this conflict, it is best not to use mercenaries who are one's own nationals in one's own wars at home or close to home, especially an extremely self aggrandizing one like Prigozhin.
Interesting points.
1. He doesn't wear insignias,he is in a trainer , not in official uniform.
2. doesn't give command. Correct me if I am wrong, but the Wagner needs to be in the chain of command of the Russia military. Calling them to follow the orders of the president only, but not giving actionable command.
Few qestion.
1. where the Wagner belong to the Russian military chain of command ? Under Surovikin , or under his commander ?
2. Is the wording that Surovikin gives could be interpreted as a formal command ? the translator is rubbish, and as I see it is not a command to a subordinate .
Even Putin didn't give order .
He made a speech, but there was nothing like "I order the units of the Wagner PMC to do this or that" .
In a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday, Kazakhstani President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev referred to the unfolding rebellion by Wagner Group mercenaries, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, an internal matter of the Russian Federation.
This is reported by Ukrinform with reference to Kazakhstan’s presidential .
"President Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev spoke by phone with the President of Russia. Vladimir Putin briefed him on the situation in the country. Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev noted that the events taking place are an internal matter of Russia," the statement reads.
Tokayev added that constitutional order and rule of law are "an indispensable condition for maintaining law and order in the country."
This is reported by Ukrinform with reference to Kazakhstan’s presidential .
"President Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev spoke by phone with the President of Russia. Vladimir Putin briefed him on the situation in the country. Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev noted that the events taking place are an internal matter of Russia," the statement reads.
Tokayev added that constitutional order and rule of law are "an indispensable condition for maintaining law and order in the country."
Warlords?
Hardly so, no matching events.
But in Chinese history was indeed a good example, when a famous&capable border jiedushi got so brilliantly outplayed at court, and accused of treason so much, that he ultimately did the "screw it, I march onto capital" thing.
Some sources say The first vid is from past yeat
So knowing what we know now the battle of Bakhmut actually became a net positive for Ukraine, in that battle not only did Wagner get a large amount of growth in terms of equipment and manpower, but also a rivalry/animosity against Russian MoD. They could've threw men at other fronts for another year and it would not lead to a mutiny in Wagner.
What Prigozhins band of merry rebel does will not be the main show as it could be quickly put down, it's what Putin chooses to do with everyone that enabled them along the way from border guards to local police/security forces that legitimately let them go through large swaths of Russian land unopposed, some even putting down arms and joining them.
Edit: to not waste thread space
Chechens on the outskirts of Rostov:
Wagner broke through and driving past a truck blockade
What Prigozhins band of merry rebel does will not be the main show as it could be quickly put down, it's what Putin chooses to do with everyone that enabled them along the way from border guards to local police/security forces that legitimately let them go through large swaths of Russian land unopposed, some even putting down arms and joining them.
Edit: to not waste thread space
Chechens on the outskirts of Rostov:
Wagner broke through and driving past a truck blockade
Last edited:
Come on guys, this is SDF, let's use some critical thinking and not take propaganda blindly at face value.
Prigozhin is a figurehead and derives all his power from Putin's blessing. However, the Russian domestic public can be easily fooled into believing Prigozhin has started a mutiny at the behest of Western-backed forces.
In other words, Prigozhin will be used as a scapegoat, Moscow is being attacked by Western-backed mutiny forces, and Putin (reluctantly forced to) has to declare a "State of Emergency" which effectively eliminates S.M.O. status and elevates it into a full-scale war declaration against Ukraine.
Putin's goal to elevate this S.M.O. into a full-scale war declaration, but unfortunately Prigozhin is the expendable scapegoat in this scenario.
Step 1: Putin tells Prigozhin to rebel. Prigozhin labelled treason, Western-cuckery.
Step 2: Moscow is under attack by Western-backed mutiny forces.
Step 3: Declare a State of Emergency, effectively ending S.M.O. status, enter full-scale war
Step 4: ???
Step 5: Profit
Prigozhin is a figurehead and derives all his power from Putin's blessing. However, the Russian domestic public can be easily fooled into believing Prigozhin has started a mutiny at the behest of Western-backed forces.
In other words, Prigozhin will be used as a scapegoat, Moscow is being attacked by Western-backed mutiny forces, and Putin (reluctantly forced to) has to declare a "State of Emergency" which effectively eliminates S.M.O. status and elevates it into a full-scale war declaration against Ukraine.
Putin's goal to elevate this S.M.O. into a full-scale war declaration, but unfortunately Prigozhin is the expendable scapegoat in this scenario.
Step 1: Putin tells Prigozhin to rebel. Prigozhin labelled treason, Western-cuckery.
Step 2: Moscow is under attack by Western-backed mutiny forces.
Step 3: Declare a State of Emergency, effectively ending S.M.O. status, enter full-scale war
Step 4: ???
Step 5: Profit
Is Russian MoD unwilling to order fire on Wagner? Still smells a little like a psyop but unlikely given the reports of helicopters shooting/being shot at
Reports starting to come in that Wagner convoys have reached Lipetsk and some even claim they just entered Moscow Oblast
Next 3 hours will be very interesting. Apparently Carl Zha is in Moscow. Hope he stays safe.
Reports starting to come in that Wagner convoys have reached Lipetsk and some even claim they just entered Moscow Oblast
Next 3 hours will be very interesting. Apparently Carl Zha is in Moscow. Hope he stays safe.
I don't buy that, sha... But Prigozhin is behaving completely irrationally...